Exeter have already secured profits for us this season and Nick Hext is backing the Grecians again in the Sky Bet League Two play-offs.
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Blackpool v Luton Town (1830 BST, Sky Sports 2)
I'm keen on Blackpool to spring a surprise against Luton but, and I'm very much showing my hand here, I want to wait until Thursday's return game to act if the prices have skewed towards the Hatters after a tight opening encounter.
Fourth-placed Luton finished the season seven points ahead of Blackpool, who ended up seventh, as the top qualifier for the play-offs.
The Hatters are favourites to go up but I just don’t trust them to deliver when the pressure is on.
Nathan Jones’ side should really have put the top three under more pressure but poor form during February and March cost them to allow Portsmouth, Plymouth and Doncaster to escape into the distance.
They are boosted by the return of key striker Danny Hylton from suspension for the first leg at Bloomfield Road, although Isaac Vassell and Jack Marriott have proved their credentials in his absence.
The squad at Jones’ disposal is definitely stronger than that available to Blackpool boss Gary Bowyer but I can still see the favourites coming unstuck over two legs.
Luton showed naivety in their 3-2 defeat against Oxford in the semi-finals of the Checkatrade Trophy, pulling the game back to 2-2 before falling to a Marvin Johnson winner for the U’s just a few minutes later.
Blackpool are a different proposition to Oxford of League One but manager Bowyer is a canny operator and he’s already impressed this season to take the Seasiders to the play-offs.
Bowyer’s side have beaten both Doncaster and Plymouth during the run-in so they can challenge the division’s top sides and are certainly more than capable of putting Luton under pressure.
I think this tie will still be open for the return game and that’s why I will take a watching brief on Sunday night with the intention to back Blackpool in the second leg.
Prediction: Blackpool 0-1 Luton Town
Opta facts:
Blackpool have lost their last three games against Luton Town without scoring a single goal. In fact, Luton haven won each of their last six against the Tangerines in all competitions, since a 3-1 defeat to them in February 2003.
Blackpool have lost just one of their last 14 matches at Bloomfield Road in all competitions (W5 D8).
Luton were only outside the top seven positions in League Two for just one week in January this season, spending 218 days in the play-off zone.
Blackpool have been promoted in four of their previous six Football League playoff campaigns (twice from fourth tier, once from third, once from second).
The Hatters’ only previous playoff experience came in the third tier in 1996/97, losing the semi-final to Crewe Alexandra.
The team who has finished seventh has won three of the last five play-offs in League Two (Crewe 2011/12, Bradford 2012/13 and AFC Wimbledon last season).
Jack Marriott has three goals in his last two games for Luton, after going 16 without finding the net in all competitions.
Carlisle United v Exeter City (1830 BST, Sky Sports red button)
I’ve backed Exeter for a top-seven finish in both of the last two seasons so it shouldn’t come as too big a surprise for regular followers of these tips that I’m keen on the Grecians to win the play-offs.
Boss Paul Tisdale was under plenty of pressure earlier this season as Exeter struggled at the wrong end of the table but a sensational showing from December onwards allowed the Devon outfit to finish in fifth.
The opening play-off challenge is a very, very long trip north to Carlisle on Sunday evening and I like Exeter as 2/1 outsiders to get the advantage in this tie.
These two sides met at St James Park last weekend to end the regular season and Carlisle won 3-2 to confirm their top-seven finish.
I’m not putting too much stock in that result though.
Exeter’s play-off place was already confirmed prior to the last day of term and that was only Carlisle’s third win in 14 matches as they stumbled into this tie.
The Cumbrian club’s fortunes have gone downhill since the end of November as Exeter's climb up the standings started.
Star striker Charlie Wyke’s departure to Bradford in January was a huge blow for Carlisle and just six victories in 23 games in 2017 is an incredibly meagre return for a team still in promotion contention.
Exeter have claimed 12 wins this year (I’m sure you’ll have worked out that’s double Carlisle’s number of successes) so there’s no argument that they are the side in better shape for this semi-final.
Followers of our tips are already smiling thanks to winning tips for Exeter to finish in the play-offs and their second-placed finish in the final League Two handicap table, Plymouth denying our each-way selection bigger profits by coming out on top.
Exeter are on offer at 5/2 in the promotion betting but I’ll hold back on looking ahead to Wembley and instead back the Grecians at 2/1 to win in Cumbria on Sunday evening.
Tisdale’s side are odds-on to get to the play-off final and I envisage a much tougher test against whichever one of Blackpool or Luton they meet in the final promotion tussle.
Prediction: Carlisle United 1-3 Exeter City
Opta facts:
Carlisle won both league matches against Exeter this season, beating them 3-2 in November and again on the final day of the season by the same score.
Exeter conceded in the 89th and 90th minute away at Carlisle in November to go from 2-1 up to 3-2 down.
Reuben Reid has found the net in each of his last three games against Carlisle, including both of Exeter’s opening goals against them this season.
Carlisle have never progressed from a Football League play-off semi-final (1993/94 v Wycombe in fourth tier and 2007/08 v Leeds in third tier).
This will be Exeter’s first time in the Football League play-offs in any division. They did however win the 2007/08 Conference National play-off beating Cambridge in the final.
The last time a team in sixth place won the League Two playoffs was in 2010/11 (Stevenage).
Danny Grainger’s two penalty goals against Exeter on final day ended an 18 game run for him without scoring in al competitions.
Only Plymouth (45 points) had a better away record in League Two this season the Grecians (42 points, W13 D3 L7).
Posted at 0950 BST on 12/05/17.
