3pts Under 2.5 goals at evens (Betfair, William Hill)
0.5pts Mickey Demetriou to score anytime at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Jay Williams to be sent off at 40/1 (bet365)
*All bets 90 minutes
Who saw this coming?
Crawley and Crewe slugging it out at Wembley for a spot in League One.
Not me and neither did the bookies.
In fact, Crawley began the season as the joint favourites for relegation and Crewe were the third favourites to drop out of the football league.
The pair were also the least fancied in the play-offs, Crawley pitched at 5/1 for promotion and Crewe at 4/1.
Odds correct at 1700 (21/07/23)
Crawley cruised into the final, thumping favourites MK Dons 8-1 on aggregate, Danilo Orsi netting a hattrick in the second leg, which explains why they are the favourites at Wembley.
Crewe looked dead and buried at the halfway stage of their clash with Doncaster finding themselves two goals down after a woeful first leg performance.
Two early goals in South Yorkshire swung the momentum in the Railwaymen’s favour, who ultimately won on penalties.
Recent history shows goals are hard to come by in League Two play-off finals.
The last 10 have averaged two goals per game with under 2.5 clicking in 60%, three have ended goalless.
The two contrasting styles also point to a lack of goals.
Put simply; Crawley want to play football and Crewe don’t.
Whilst the big Wembley pitch will suit the Red Devils, it will force Crewe to sit deep, be compact and look to play on the counter. The even money about UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a great price.
There have been three red cards across the last five play-off finals.
It might just be coincidence but with a referee averaging over five cards a game and a card magnet in Crawley’s midfield, I think backing JAY WILLIAMS TO BE SENT OFF is worth a punt.
Williams was in the thick of it at MK Dons, scoring the opener with a tackle and then he was on the receiving end of a stamp within the first 10 minutes.
Usually, he is dishing out the fouls averaging 1.4 a game, impressive considering he averages 1.5 tackles.
JAY WILLIAMS EXTENDS CRAWLEY'S LEAD TO FOUR INSIDE THREE MINUTES 💥
— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) May 11, 2024
Will there be any way back for MK Dons? pic.twitter.com/F6x5DhRzZA
I could not resist a punt on MICKEY DEMETRIOU to net under the big arch.
He started the comeback at Doncaster, nodding home his ninth of the season.
It means that Luke Leahy of Wycombe is the only defender to have scored more goals (10) than Demetriou in the football league.
The central defender also relishes playing against the Red Devils, netting four times against them in his career. At 9/1, he is worth a small punt TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Will Wright, Harry Forster and Klaidi Lolos were all forced off before the hour mark in the second leg. The former has almost been an ever present this term, whilst the other two’s roles have grown.
No doubt the trio will be doing all they can to declare themselves fit for Sunday.
Scott Lindsey named an unchanged side in the semi’s and I assume he will do the same at Wembley if possible.
As for Crewe, Elliot Nevitt was withdrawn in extra time with a knock at Doncaster and may have to sit Sunday out.
Lee Bell rang made the changes for the second leg, four in total with a change of formation. If the XI came through the game unscathed, Bell may well stick with it.
Crawley: Addai; Wright, Conroy, Maguire; Forster, Williams, L. Kelly, J. Kelly; Lolos, Campbell; Orsi
Crewe: Stryjek; Billington, Turns, Demetriou, Adebisi; Thomas, Tabiner; Tracey, Rowe, Long; Nevitt
Odds correct at 1600 BST (16/05/24)
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