The Sky Bet League One play-offs are the latest post-season contest taking place and Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Recommended bets
2pts Fleetwood to be promoted at 5/2
2pts Fleetwood and Oxford both to make the play off final at 9/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
We weren't sure what to expect with the Sky Bet League Two play-offs but we were given five games of pure entertainment and drama; there's a strong argument that it was some of the best football we've watched since the game returned.
That's not to say it was the prettiest but rather effective, to put it diplomatically. Those games gave us goals, penalties and red cards. We couldn't have asked for a better play-off set-up in the circumstances and similar here would be fantastic for the neutral.
While League Two was fairly straightforward when it came to curtailing the division, League One had more suggestions of alternative arrangements and the points-per-game argument massively affected some. Peterborough fell out of the top-six altogether while Wycombe took their spot and became the 'top seed' with third position.
The tight nature of the play-off race was reflected in Oxford, Portsmouth and Fleetwood all finishing with 75.43 on PPG. Despite Wycombe being the third-placed team, they sit as the 9/2 outsiders for promotion.
Sky Bet League One play-off dates
First legs - Friday 3rd July
- Portsmouth v Oxford – 17:30
- Fleetwood v Wycombe – 19.30
Second legs - Monday 6th July
- Oxford v Portsmouth – 17:00
- Wycombe v Fleetwood – 19.30
Final (Wembley Stadium)
- Monday 13th July – 19.30
Portsmouth take favouritism which isn't a huge surprise given their involvement in the play-offs last season. Their appearance in the Checkatrade Trophy, a tournament they won by beating Sunderland in the final, also provides them with recent Wembley experience.
For Oxford, they have never taken part in a Football League play-off campaign before. The good news for them is that, the team which finishes fourth has been promoted more times over the last ten League One campaigns than any other position (five). Richard Wood's brace ensured Rotherham were the last team to do it in 2017/18 edition.
Joining Oxford in having a fairly rookie status in this scenario is Wycombe. Their third-place finish is their highest ever in English football; that resulted in them making their debut appearance in the third tier play-offs.
Standing in their way is Fleetwood, who have been here before as they were defeated by Bradford over two legs in 2016/17. They will be hoping to utilise the momentum gained by their 12-game unbeaten run prior to the stoppage.
In similar fashion to our League Two preview, we will use the following four factors when deciding an outright winner:
- Form at the beginning of the season
- Results following any postponed fixtures
- Results against other play-off teams
- Results in quick succession
This does have the feel of the start of a new season given the time away. Results following postponed fixtures also gives us some insight how teams adjust following previously unscheduled weeks off and the games against each other are a good indicator of how the teams match up, particularly if they were played post-Christmas.
Analysing the results for a team over a midweek period where three games have been played is another way of judging how well these teams adjust to fixtures in quick succession; these play-offs will last just ten days with the final at the unusual time of 19:30 on a Monday.
We begin by looking at the two semi-finals, where Oxford welcome Portsmouth and Wycombe take on Fleetwood.
Portsmouth v Oxford
Previous results:
- Portsmouth 1-1 Oxford (November 2)
Portsmouth were due a trip to Oxford at the end of March but that was one of the bulk of fixtures postponed in England's third tier. Their only meeting this season came at Fratton Park in November, where both sides settled for a point in a 1-1 draw.
Gareth Evans netted from the penalty spot that day and Kenny Jackett's side looked on course for three points before Matthew Taylor struck in the last minute.
Opening five games:
- Portsmouth: L | W | L | D | D
- Oxford: D | W | L | L | L
Both sides had fairly poor starts to the season. Out of their first five matches, Portsmouth and Oxford only posted one win each.
Pompey edge it on points gained with five compared to Oxford's four. A potential concern for Portsmouth is that their only win came against Tranmere, who went onto be relegated, while Oxford got the better of Peterborough.
Results in quick succession:
- Portsmouth: LWD | WDL | WLW | LWW
- Oxford: LLL | WDW | WWL | LDL | WWWW
League One is affected more by the international breaks than League Two, meaning that these two sides have seen games postponed with players away on duty for their countries.
Oxford's form with games in quick succession has improved as the season has progressed. They were beaten by Blackpool, Oxford and Bristol Rovers over a seven-day period in August. However, just before the break, Karl Robinson's side secured wins over Wimbledon, Ipswich, Accrington Stanley and Southend over the space of 11 days.
For Portsmouth, their blocks have been decent enough. Unlike Oxford, they haven't managed to go unbeaten but have picked up points. As seen with Northampton, a loss in the first game followed by two wins can be enough to secure promotion.
Fleetwood v Wycombe
Previous results:
- Fleetwood 1-1 Wycombe (August 20)
- Wycombe 0-1 Fleetwood (February 11)
Little separated the teams across their two meetings but Fleetwood did walk away with all three points when they met in February.
The game at the beginning of the season resulted in a draw. Adebayo Akinfenwa gave Wycombe the lead near the hour mark before Paddy Madden struck in the 90th minute to salvage a point.
Madden was then the difference with his 75th-minute strike at Adams Park. He'll be fancied to net again at some point across the two play-off fixtures.
Opening five games:
- Fleetwood: W | W | L | D | W
- Wycombe: W | D | W | D | W
Wycombe enjoyed a slightly better opening five games than Fleetwood but they benefitted massively from a very strong start to the season; a 2-0 defeat to Gillingham being the only time they lost in their first 20 league fixtures.
Fleetwood were at the other end of the scale, albeit not drastically, with their start to the season seeing a few losses thrown in. Their form in the second half of the campaign really threw them into contention as they embarked on a 12-game unbeaten run prior to the pause. For Wycombe, they've only managed five wins in their last 14.
Results in quick succession:
- Fleetwood: LDW | WLW | WDD | DDW | WWW | WDD
- Wycombe: WDW | LDW | WDW | LLD | WLW
As mentioned above, Wycombe benefitted from a strong start but that defeat to Gillingham did come at the beginning of a three-game block in September.
Fleetwood have been fairly consistent with their results in games coming in quick succession but having four unbeaten blocks puts them in a great position when it comes to a play-off scenario - that is the best of the four teams involved.
Wanderers have seen two unbeaten blocks but a loss/loss/draw scenario, as seen over the Christmas period, would see them crashing out of the play-offs at the first hurdle. A point to note is that over that period they conceded seven goals.
Play-off teams mini-league
TEAM W-D-L GD PTS
- Fleetwood | 3-2-0 | +3 | 11
- Portsmouth | 1-2-2 | 0 | 5
- Oxford | 1-1-1 | 0 | 4
- Wycombe | 1-1-3 | -3 | 4
Fleetwood:
- 1-1 D v Wycombe
- 0-1 W v Wycombe
- 1-0 W v Portsmouth
- 2-2 D v Portsmouth
- 2-1 W v Oxford
Portsmouth:
- 1-1 D v Oxford
- 1-0 L v Fleetwood
- 2-2 D v Fleetwood
- 1-0 L v Wycombe
- 2-0 W v Wycombe
Oxford:
- 1-1 D v Portsmouth
- 2-1 L v Fleetwood
- 1-0 W v Wycombe
Wycombe:
- 1-1 D v Fleetwood
- 0-1 L v Fleetwood
- 1-0 W v Portsmouth
- 2-0 L v Portsmouth
- 1-0 L v Oxford
First leg Opta facts
Portsmouth v Oxford:
- The last six meetings between Portsmouth and Oxford in all competitions have seen both sides win twice, with the two encounters this season ending level.
- Between 1981 and 1998, Oxford embarked on a 15-game winless run in away matches against Portsmouth (D7 L8) – since then, the U’s have won two of their six trips to Portsmouth in all competitions (D2 L2).
- Portsmouth have enjoyed wins on two of the last three occasions they have hosted Oxford, though when the sides met earlier this season at Fratton Park, the match ended 1-1.
- This will be Portsmouth’s fourth playoff campaign, and third in the last five years across all EFL divisions – indeed, they have never progressed to the final, losing in the second tier in 1992-93 (Leicester City), the fourth tier in 2015-16 (Plymouth) and in last season’s League One semi-finals to Sunderland.
- Oxford, who finished fourth in League One this season, have never before taken part in a playoff campaign in their history – indeed, the side finishing fourth has been promoted more times in the last 10 League One campaigns via the playoffs than any other position (5 promotions), most recently Rotherham in 2017-18.
- Portsmouth finished their domestic League One season without a single defeat at Fratton Park (P18 W12 D6 L0), going unbeaten in their last 19 games on home soil in the league (W12 D7), since a 2-3 defeat to Peterborough back in April 2019.
- Only the top two sides in League One – Coventry an Rotherham (18) – won more League One games than Portsmouth and Oxford this season (both 17), with the U’s coming into this game on the back of a five game winning run, scoring 14 times and conceding just three goals during this run.
- Since joining Oxford at the beginning of 2017-18, James Henry has scored (33) and assisted (18) more goals than any other player at the club. Indeed, only Ivan Toney (29) had a direct hand in more League One goals this season than the Oxford midfielder (21 – 12 goals, 9 assists).
- Portsmouth boss Kenny Jackett has taken part in four playoff campaigns as a manager, progressing to the final on three occasions (only failing to do so last season with Pompey). Indeed, his Millwall side were promoted in 2009-10, but lost out to Scunthorpe in 2008-09, whilst his Swansea side fell to Barnsley on penalties in 2005-06.
Fleetwood v Wycombe:
- Each of the last eight games between Fleetwood and Wycombe have seen no more than two goals and neither side scoring more than once. Fleetwood winning two, drawing three and losing three.
- Fleetwood are unbeaten in their last three home games against Wycombe (W1 D2), although they drew 1-1 in this season’s regular season game at Highbury Stadium.
- Wycombe’s only victory in five previous visits to Highbury stadium came back in October 2012, when this was a League Two fixture, losing two of the other four (D2).
- Wycombe’s third place finish in League One is their highest ever in English football, with the Chairboys making their first ever appearance in the third-tier play-offs.
- Fleetwood come into this game on a 12-game unbeaten run (W6 D6). In fact, in League One, Joey Barton’s men haven’t lost at home since October, also unbeaten in 12 games on home soil (W6 D6).
- Wycombe Wanderers have lost six of their last seven away games in League One (W1), with the Chairboys failing to score in six of their last eight matches on the road.
- This will be Fleetwood Town’s second attempt to gain promotion from League One via the playoffs, having failed at the semi-final stage to Bradford City in 2016-17 (0-1 away, 0-0 at home).
- Wycombe will take part in their fifth playoff campaign - indeed, the Chairboys gained promotion via this route in 1993-94, but have fallen to Cheltenham (2005-06), Stockport County (2007-08) and Southend United (2014-15) in their most recent three playoff campaigns.
- Only Peterborough’s Ivan Toney (24) has netted more goals in League One this season than Fleetwood striker Paddy Madden (15), who has netted in three of his last four league appearances against Wycombe (three goals).
- Wycombe striker Adebayo Akinfenwa has scored in each of his last two playoff appearances in the EFL, both for AFC Wimbledon during the 2015-16 campaign, including a goal at Wembley against Plymouth in the final.
Our predicted final
Previous results:
- Fleetwood 2-1 Oxford (September 7)
Oxford's remaining fixtures left them facing the other three play-off contenders but Fleetwood picked up all three points on offer with victory in their meeting in September.
Madden was again among the goals but his opener was cancelled out by Elliott Moore. As the game was approaching the final 10 minutes, Peter Clarke's header found the net to secure victory for Barton's side.
Opening five games:
- Fleetwood: W | W | L | D | W
- Oxford: D | W | L | L | L
Oxford suffered the worst start out of the four play-off contenders, and while Fleetwood enjoyed points returning from four of their five openers, both sides benefitted from a strong second half of the campaign.
A draw and a win would be enough to get Oxford to the final; although both sides did lose their third game of the season so we can't look into the opening results too much at this stage of the competition.
The final is a straight shootout between who turns up on the day, as witnessed with Northampton in the League Two edition, but Fleetwood do edge this category given their strong start.
Results in quick succession:
- Fleetwood: LDW | WLW | WDD | DDW | WWW | WDD
- Oxford: LLL | WDW | WWL | LDL | WWWW
Both sides have enjoyed a block of three wins or more across the season and they'll be aiming to replicate that form across the ten days.
Fleetwood have been fairly consistent with their results in games coming in quick succession but having four unbeaten blocks puts them in a great position. Being a tough team to beat is arguably more important than being a winning side in play-off scenarios; Huddersfield being the best example of this when they scored just one goal during the 2016/17 Championship play-offs and still secured promotion.
Oxford's form with games in quick succession has improved as the season has progressed. They were beaten by Blackpool, Oxford and Bristol Rovers over a seven-day period in August. However, just before the break, Karl Robinson's side secured wins over Wimbledon, Ipswich, Accrington Stanley and Southend over the space of 11 days.
Despite that, Fleetwood have the better results when it comes to games in quick succession. They will hold some confidence due to this and they are well equipped to cope well in a play-off scenario. Fairly recent experience of this competition will also give them an edge.
Verdict: Fleetwood to be promoted at 5/2
Odds correct at 1100 BST (02/07/20)
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