League One and Two final day: Promotion, play-off places and relegation all on the line
Much of the time the final day of a Sky Bet EFL campaign can be a damp squib, with little (or even nothing) left to play for.
But with promotion, relegation and play-off places all to be decided in League One and Two, Saturday should be fun.
Who will make the League Two play-offs?
The fourth-tier automatic promotion picture is sewn up with Stockport, Mansfield and Wrexham guaranteed to be playing League One football next season.
MK Dons are ensured fourth place and a home play-off semi-final second leg. DONCASTER and CREWE, in fifth and sixth place, need just a point apiece to seal their post-season spot.
Rovers and Alex arrived here by hugely different routes. Donny weren't safe from relegation eight weeks ago but have won 10 (TEN!) on the bounce to storm up to fifth while Crewe have dipped recently but been in the play-offs virtually all season.
The other berth is... complicated. BARROW sit seventh and, like Crewe, have been top-seven staples all season - but to say they're clinging on would be an understatement. The Bluebirds have lost five of their last six and host Mansfield on the last day.
The Stags are already up of course but could pride - wanting to finish above Hollywood-owned Wrexham as runners-up - motivate Nigel Clough's men? If Barrow win, they're in but any other result opens the door for one of three other clubs.
CRAWLEY, a point behind Barrow, are best-positioned to pounce on any such slip, hosting a Grimsby side safe in 21st. But the Red Devils have stumbled recently too, winless in four.
Sky Bet League Two top-seven finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- Doncaster - 1/50
- Crewe - 1/12
- Barrow - 4/5
- Crawley - 1/1
- Bradford - 5/1
- Walsall - 250/1
Odds correct 1300 BST (25/04/24)
Next up? BRADFORD, who've won five of six to reignite a play-off push that looked done for. Must be something in the Yorkshire water at the minute.
Graham Alexander's side should win at home to a Newport side that has lost seven straight - but they still need Barrow to lose and Crawley to fail to win to leapfrog them both, which is reflected in odds of 6/1 on the Bantams pinching a play-off spot.
How about a 475/1 shot? That's what Paddys and Betfair quote on WALSALL sneaking seventh. They must win at Wimbledon plus hope Bradford and Crawley fail to win, and Barrow lose. Oh, and they need a six-goal swing on Barrow too. Worth a quid?
Who will be relegated from League Two?
Forest Green are already down, condemned to back-to-back relegations. They'll be joined by either SUTTON or COLCHESTER.
And, to be frank, it's very likely to be Sutton heading back down to the National League. That price we mentioned on Derby earlier? It's the same odds, 1/250, on Steve Morison's Yellows to be relegated from League Two.
Key final-day League Two fixtures (all 15:00 BST)
- AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall
- Barrow vs Mansfield Town
- Bradford City vs Newport County
- Colchester United vs Crewe Alexandra
- Crawley Town vs Grimsby Town
- Gillingham vs Doncaster Rovers
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Sutton United
That's because Sutton are three points adrift of Colchester and with a worse goal difference too.
Four wins and two draws in seven have given them hope but Sutton have to win at Milton Keynes (hard enough in itself), hope Colchester lose at home to Crewe AND overturn a goal difference that's inferior by four. Tall order. Beanstalk-esque.
The U's have drawn their way to near-safety since Danny Cowley took over at the turn of the year (W4 D9 L6). They need only one more draw to secure survival. Worth a reminder at this stage that visitors Crewe only need a point to seal a play-off spot.
You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to see how that game might pan out. The draw is hardly ever the favourite outcome with the bookies but, at 17/10 top price, it is here...
Who will be automatically promoted from League One?
Portsmouth are already promoted as third-tier champions and Paul Warne's DERBY are in the box seat to join them in the Sky Bet Championship next season. In fact, they're not just in the box seat - they're belted in and wearing chainmail.
The Rams, three points clear of third-placed BOLTON and with a goal difference superior by four, need just a point at home to already-relegated bottom side Carlisle.
Derby have won eight of their past 10 at Pride Park, including the last five straight.
They are 1/250 to finish in the top two. Yep, you'd have to stake a monkey just to win a shiny £2 coin.
Any sliver of hope for Trotters fans? Well, Bolton themselves did lose at home to Carlisle 3-1 in October, and the Cumbrians also won by the same score at play-off bound Peterborough in March. But... they've lost 16 of their last 20 league games.
Too many draws - five in their past 10 - have cost Bolton, who, for their part, have to win at Peterborough to stand any chance.
Posh may rest players with an eye on the play-offs - although they'd actually leapfrog Bolton into third if they win by four goals.
Who will make the League One play-offs?
Peterborough will be in the play-offs, almost certainly joined by Bolton. The it gets messy.
BARNSLEY have looked top-six certs virtually all season but after picking up just nine points from the past 33 available, they took the shock step of sacking Neill Collins as head coach with just one game to go.
The fifth-placed Tykes have by far the worst form of any side in the promotion race but their fate remains in their own hands due to their strong results earlier in the season.
Win at home to mid-table, nothing-to-play-for Northampton and they're in. Any other result, however, could see them leapfrogged by one, two or all three of the teams directly below them.
Key final-day League One fixtures (all 12:30 BST)
- Barnsley vs Northampton
- Derby vs Carlisle
- Exeter vs Oxford
- Fleetwood vs Burton
- Lincoln vs Portsmouth
- Peterborough vs Bolton
- Port Vale vs Cambridge
- Reading vs Blackpool
- Stevenage vs Cheltenham
Sixth-placed LINCOLN have the toughest final game of the play-off hopefuls, on paper at least, hosting champions Pompey.
Portsmouth did lose their last match at home to Wigan though and have nothing to play for, while Michael Skubala's Lincoln are the division's form outfit, marching into the top six on a remarkable run of 12 wins in 16, taking 39 points from a possible 48.
Seventh-placed OXFORD, level on points with Lincoln but with an inferior goal difference, have spent much of the campaign in the top six but never really recovered their sparkling early-season form since Liam Manning left to take charge of Bristol City.
Their hopes hinge on Barnsley and Lincoln - if they both win, Oxford are out. If not, a win would get the U's in or even a draw could be enough.
But Des Buckingham's men face a tough trip to an Exeter side finishing on a high, unbeaten in nine and winning six of those.
Sky Bet League One Top 6 finish odds (via Sky Bet)
- Barnsley - 2/9
- Lincoln - 8/11
- Oxford - 11/10
- Blackpool - 7/2
Odds correct at 1130 BST (25/04/24)
BLACKPOOL are the outsiders in the market but have a shot thanks to four straight wins. They need three points at already-safe Reading and two of Barnsley, Lincoln and Oxford to fail to win - really not beyond the realms of possibility at 7/2.
Exciting as all of this is, it won't escape the attention of eagle-eyed EFL fans that the League One play-off line-up could be as identical as possible to last season when Posh, Barnsley and Bolton joined eventual play-off winners Sheffield Wednesday, who famously came back from a 4-0 first-leg deficit to eventually win at Wembley with the final kick of extra-time.
More drama like that please.
Who will be relegated from League One?
Carlisle were doomed weeks ago, long since cut adrift at the bottom while Port Vale and Charlie Adam's Fleetwood's will join them in the fourth tier. But the latter two still have a key role to play on the final day - more on that shortly...
The final place is between CHELTENHAM, BURTON and CAMBRIDGE. That the Robins are even in with a shout of staying up is testament to the near-miracle Darrell Clarke has performed since taking over as manager in October.
Cheltenham lost 10 of their opening 12 games, drawing the other two. Not only that, they failed to score a single goal in their first 11 games! 'The Great Escape' is a cliche oft used but the glove fits here if they manage it.
They've slowly but surely turned things around, despite losing both of their best strikers in the past 10 months - Alfie May to Charlton last summer and Will Goodwin to Oxford in January - to give themselves a shot at survival on the last day.
The good news for Cheltenham? They have a better goal difference than Burton and Cambridge are in reach GD-wise too.
The bad news? They're relying on favours from teams already down.
Clarke's side must win at out-of-form, managerless Stevenage - one victory in 11 - on the final day AND hope Burton fail to win at already-relegated Fleetwood or Cambridge, who have lost 11 of their past 17, fall to another defeat at already-doomed Port Vale.
Burton have dropped into danger after nine defeats in 13 but have won two of their last three to keep their destiny in their own hands.
Cambridge will sleep easiest of the three, knowing they can only go down if they lose and the other two both win.
Sky Bet League One relegation odds (via Sky Bet)
- Cheltenham - 2/7
- Burton - 7/2
- Cambridge - 11/1
Sky Bet League One odds to stay up (via Sky Bet)
- Cambridge - 1/50
- Burton - 1/6
- Cheltenham - 5/2
Odds correct 1230 BST (25/04/24)
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