Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Niklas Sule to score anytime at 13/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Niklas Sule to have 1+ shots on target at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime at 9/2 (General)
Lazio v Bayern Munich
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 4/1 | Draw 10/3 | Away 3/5
Bayern have opened the door to RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga with just one point coming from their last two outings. They were held at home to Bielefeld before being beaten by in-form Frankfurt at the weekend.
However, they have a strong possibility of defending their European crown and that should continue with victory here.
The new Club World Cup winners continue to perform in Europe's elite competition and they won't be afraid of a Lazio side battling for a top-four spot in Serie A.
Six group games brought 18 goals for the Bavarian giants while Lazio had to take it to the last gameday with victory over Club Brugge.
The Italians do have a rare advantage in this round of games with their fixture taking place in Rome and they are on a seven-game winning run in all competitions at home. While the beginning of that brought wins over Napoli and Roma, the rest of the contests have largely been ones they should be winning anyway.
Robert Lewandowski is a ridiculously short 4/9 for a goal anytime with a number of bookmakers but there is value in looking elsewhere given goals are expected. Lazio have been massively outperforming their expected goals for (xGF) in the league according to Infogol - 38 scored, 31.3 xGF - while they conceded in each of their three home group games.
There are two players who stand out in this game and the prices on NIKLAS SULE netting at some point across the 90 minutes look generous, with 13/1 available on a goal anytime. Sule has been priced up as a centre-back yet he will likely play at right-back again here.
The main reason that this price stands out is because of the huge amount of shots he sees when he is in that right-back position. He started there in the defeat to Frankfurt while also lining up in the same role against Schalke last month.
He had a huge total of four shots in each, with an effort on target in both games.
The centre-back prices are also clear in the fact that he is 7/2 with Sky Bet to have one effort on target in this game. It's clear that the shots are because of the altered position on the pitch, six of the eight mentioned above came from the right side of the box, both inside and out.
Centre-backs playing out wide landed us a 22/1 goalscorer winner when Lucas Hernandez struck in the group stages and the prices on offer for Sule to have some goal involvement are too generous.
Benjamin Pavard's absence should mean he continues at right-back.
One player who should return to the starting line-up is LEON GORETZKA, who has been out because of Covid but played in the second-half against Frankfurt. He looked back to his best and injected some life into the Bayern performance.
Where he plays remains to be seen, whether it be in attacking midfield or alongside Joshua Kimmich in a deeper role. Either way, he has shown that he can score regardless of position.
He may only have two goals on his Bundesliga tally but his Infogol expected goals (xG) figure is 3.07, which shows he should have had more.
Goretzka netted two during the group stages and has posted 14 shots across his last four Bayern appearances. He's not appreciated enough as the top quality midfielder that he is on the European stage - this game presents a good opportunity to return to the scoresheet.
There is little value in the outright market but taking Bayern to win with over 2.5 goals in the game comes out at a much more appealing 23/20 with a few bookmakers.
With the prices on offer elsewhere though, it's better to back GORETZKA and SULE instead.
Score prediction: Lazio 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Lazio v Bayern Munich best bets
- Niklas Sule to score anytime at 13/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- Niklas Sule to have 1+ shots on target at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
- Leon Goretzka to score anytime at 9/2 (General)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (22/02/21)
Opta facts
- This is the first competitive encounter between Lazio and Bayern Munich. Lazio have only lost one of their six UEFA Champions League matches against German opposition (W2 D3) and remain unbeaten at home.
- Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last five Champions League away games against Italian opposition (W3 D2). Their previous two UCL visits to Stadio Olimpico have produced 13 goals, including a 7-1 victory against Roma in October 2014.
- Lazio are in the knockout phase of the UEFA Champions League for the first time in 21 years (1999/00), the longest ever gap between two appearances for the same club in the latter stages of the competition.
- Bayern Munich have reached the knockout stages for the 13th consecutive season, only Real Madrid (24) and Barcelona (17) are on a longer current run. They’ve progressed to the quarter-finals in 10 of those 12 previous campaigns.
- Since last season, Bayern Munich have won 16 of their 17 UEFA Champions League games (D1), with an overall goal difference of +48 (61 goals for, 13 against) – that’s four more wins than any other side over that period (Paris SG, 12).
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
