LaLiga season preview: Five predictions for the rest of the Spanish football season

After carefully monitoring the progress made by the Bundesliga in returning to action following the COVID-19 enforced suspension of competition, LaLiga will resume this week with all eyes on the race for the title between Barcelona and Real Madrid.

Yet, it’s not just the battle between Spanish football’s eternal rivals that will catch the eye as clubs in various different positions in the table fight to either survive or, in some cases, overachieve.

After Los Blancos’ Clasico victory over Quique Setien’s Barcelona, the Catalan club has seen their lead at the summit of the Spanish top flight cut to just two points, leaving us with a mouth-watering end to the campaign where any mistake could be costly.

Real Sociedad continue to be the surprise package of the season, with their quite wondrous attacking duo of Martin Odegaard and the in-demand Mikel Oyarzabal combining to make Imanol Alguacil’s side the most exciting in LaLiga.

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Despite it being played behind closed doors, we have quite the tantalising fixture to open up competition once more, with it officially announced that the Seville derby between Sevilla and Real Betis will be played on Thursday June 11th at 9:00pm BST.

The battle for Champions League qualification will be fascinating with just five points separating third and seventh in the standings.

Any two from five teams have a strong chance of claiming the final two spots, and it will be interesting to see whether Atletico Madrid can rescue their domestic campaign, or whether Getafe will be able to get over the mental scars from the 2018/19 season where they collapsed and fell just short.

However, life at the bottom of the table is far bleaker with the prospect of relegation and the subsequent financial calamity that comes with it likely to be even more damaging in 2020 after the pandemic.

Real Mallorca, Leganes and Espanyol currently occupy the bottom three places, whilst Celta Vigo, Eibar and Real Valladolid sit preposterously close to danger.

Here, Chris Winterburn makes five predictions for what he expects to happen over the final 11 gameweeks.

The battle for Champions League qualification will go to the final day

Sevilla, Real Sociedad, Getafe, Atletico Madrid and Valencia are all involved in one of the closest battles for Champions League football in recent memory.

It may also be practical to consider Villarreal and Granada as outside bets to sneak in, but both teams would require significant collapses from those above them, which is difficult to envisage.

Sevilla and Real Sociedad currently hold the advantage, with the incredible recruitment of Monchi in the summer putting Los Rojiblancos back where their recent history suggests they belong.

The San Sebastian club on the other hand have an attacking whirlwind this term, with the aforementioned Odegaard and Oyarzabal axis making opposition defences look silly. After having last qualified for the Champions League with Antoine Griezmann in tow, this is by far their best chance to return to Europe’s top table.

Yet, you’d be a fool to rule out the two more rugged contenders for qualification in Getafe and the experienced Atletico Madrid.

Diego Simeone’s squad have been poor domestically by their standards, but remain one of the very best teams in the world, as proven by the two-legged elimination of Premier League champions elect, Liverpool.

Getafe, though, have to battle both the fixture list and psychological demons in order to finish in the top four.

They were in a similar position last season before a run of poor results cost them dearly, and now they must contend with fixtures against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad all before the season reaches its end.

Real Madrid will still struggle for goals

If Real Madrid are to win back the Spanish title then it will be because of their defence. The 2019/20 season has been awful in attacking terms for the club, as Zinedine Zidane has been forced to battle against rampant injuries and poor production from his forward players. They have scored 14 fewer goals than Barcelona this term.

The departure of Cristiano Ronaldo still hangs over the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu like an ominous cloud, and Eden Hazard has done little to take on the mantle expected when he signed.

Vinicius Jr remains inconsistent, Luka Jovic is injured and hasn’t settled to life in Spain and Marco Asensio has yet to play a match this season due to an ACL injury suffered before the campaign.

Karim Benzema’s return of 14 league goals has kept the team going, with their next highest domestic scorer being centre-half, Sergio Ramos.

James Rodriguez has failed to contribute since returning to Madrid from his loan with Bayern Munich, and it’s impossible to envisage their being any change in the team’s attacking fortunes, in spite of the promising development of Brazilian sensation, Rodrygo Goes.

Espanyol will suffer relegation for the first time since 1993

Espanyol have become synonymous with non-domestic viewers of LaLiga Santander due to their close proximity to Barcelona and their occasional ventures up the table, qualifying for the Europa League.

Although, 2019/20 has brought altogether differing fortunes to the club and they currently sit rock-bottom, six points off safety.

Collectively their performances have been poor, and scoring just 23 goals and conceding a league-high 46 was always a recipe for disaster.

Having not won in the league since early February, the fixture list doesn’t look too favourable for the Barcelona-based club either.

In between June 28th and July 8th, Espanyol will face Real Madrid at home and travel to face Real Sociedad and rivals Barcelona.

Combine that with an away trip to Valencia on the penultimate day of the season and you’re already looking at four out of 11 matches where it’s almost impossible for them to get points.

Espanyol will need to hit the ground running against Deportivo Alaves and Levante, and the break may have come at a good time with their last match ending in defeat to Osasuna.

Not since 1993 have Barcelona’s second club been relegated from the top division in Spain, but alas there is very little evidence to suggest they can conjure up a great escape this time.

Martin Odegaard will play his way into Real Madrid’s 2020/21 plans

It’s often said in football that there is no honour amongst thieves, and that phrase somewhat describes the situation involving Odegaard and Real Sociedad.

On loan from Real Madrid, the Norwegian has been a sensation this term contributing five assists in the league and scoring four goals. However, it has been his overall play which has caught the eye.

His movement off the ball is sensational and he sees things happening on the pitch before others. Quite why his assist numbers are relatively low is easy to explain, he drops deep into a central midfield position because he’s so confident in possession and actually picks the perfect ‘pass-before-the-pass’ in a goalscoring move.

Now, the tricky part comes when you look at the intricacies of the loan agreement. It’s for two years in San Sebastian, and whilst the player has been quite vocal in his desire to stay with the Basque club, it’s just not going to happen.

Do you really think Real Madrid, a team that have been so poor in attack, are going to allow arguably LaLiga Santander’s most creative attacking player to remain at another club? No, I didn’t think so.

These final 11 matches are essentially an audition for Odegaard, he has to carry his team into the Champions League, show he can put a team on his back and deliver what his potential promised throughout his youth. If he does this, then there is a shirt at Real Madrid waiting for him.

Barcelona’s defence will give them a scare

There’s something rather poetic about the fact the two teams fighting for the championship both have glaring deficiencies at opposing ends of the pitch.

If Zidane is counting on his defence to win him the title, then Setien and Los Cules are hoping their own backline doesn’t cost them the crown while Messi does the business at the other end.

Barcelona have conceded 31 goals in the league this term, which is the fifth highest in the top ten at the present moment.

When you consider that their rivals, Real, have let in just 19 goals over the same number of matches, that is a problem.

Setien arrived at Barcelona with the intention of bringing Barcelona DNA back to the team’s football, which had grown stale under Ernesto Valverde.

Whilst there have been flashes of offensive majesty in the final third, the gaps in defence have become even more pronounced.

The former Real Betis coach needs to show himself to be flexible, or the title could slip away. It’s no coincidence that many of these iconic coaches tend not to achieve success in terms of trophies, and it’s because they are married to an idea of playing which is inflexible. You look at Marcelo Bielsa always falling short in his quest for trophies, and you worry Setien could go down the same path.

Personnel haven’t helped him though, with Gerard Pique ageing and having a wandering focus towards his off-pitch business ventures, whilst the condition of Samuel Umtiti’s knees are simply unknown.

Real Madrid will grind out results in these remaining 11 matches and the Blaugrana aren’t capable of doing so. So, while we still expect Barca to cling on to their crown, Setien, if he is still coach in the summer, will need to a do a big remodelling job.

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