Mark Stinchcombe has two best bets from the weekend's LaLiga action starting with the Friday night action in the Valencia derby.
Recommended bets
3pts Real Sociedad to beat Osasuna at 8/11
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Real Sociedad v Osasuna
Sunday June 14 - 9pm
Another good-looking bet in the first gameweek of LaLiga comes in the form of Real Sociedad to take down Osasuna in the final fixture of the weekend on Sunday night.
This is 10/15 home wins versus 17/27 away defeats, showing another case of a side who enjoy their home comforts hosting one that are vulnerable away.
Real Sociedad are enjoying a great season in fourth as they look to maintain their quest for a Champions League spot, where just two points separate third to sixth. Along the way they’ve beaten Atletico Madrid and Valencia at the Anoeta as well as holding Barcelona, to go with beating Real Madrid in the Bernabeu on a Copa del Rey journey that has seen them into the final. They are very much capable of competing with the best in the league.
They’ve an exciting, youthful side mixed with a set of players performing at their peak. Whether it’s Willian Jose or the young Swede drawing comparisons with Zlatan Ibrahimovic in Aleksander Isak chosen as the main striker, the quality from out wide in Mikel Oyarzabal and Christian Portu, coupled with the Real Madrid loanee Martin Odegaard (below) coming centrally, they are a force to be reckoned with for any side. The latter three have 38 goals and assists between them this season. The unsung hero in all of this is anchorman Mikel Merino helping to break up the play.
Osasuna are another side who are performing above their station in terms of quality, and they deserve credit for sitting in 11th at this stage of the season.
However, this was mainly down to their good start following promotion from the Segunda, losing just two of their first 12 fixtures. Since then, they’ve lost six of the last eight against the top 10 as their true quality begins to show. The key player here for the Pamplona side is Luis Avila, with the Argentine registering nine goals in 18 starts this season, including a brace in the reverse fixture.
Having said all that, La Real are a team in form pre-break, having won 13 of their last 17 matches, and have already beaten Osasuna twice this season, so 8/11 is enticing here.
Best bet: Real Sociedad to beat Osasuna at 8/11
Friday's preview
Valencia v Levante
Friday, June 12 - 9pm (BST)
Valencia at around the 8/11 mark look a good way to kick-start LaLiga. Albert Celades' men take on Levante at the Mestalla where they’ve been unbeaten all season.
Levante, on the other hand, have lost the most away games in the league (11 of 14) and are really poor travellers despite playing in the same city. They’ve lost their last five trips to the Mestalla by an aggregate score of 14-2 and overall have lost 19 of their last 25 La Liga games.
There really is a disparity in quality between these two sides. Valencia have a strike force fit for the top four in Rodrigo, Kevin Gameiro and Maxi Gomez with a midfield oozing in class with Ferran Torres, Carlos Soler, Goncalo Guedes, Denis Cheryshev and Dani Parejo pulling the strings. On top of this, Jose Gaya and Daniel Wass provide creativity from the full-back areas.
Levante by contrast do well to hold their own in the league in what is a team mainly consisting of journeymen. The main danger comes in striker Roger Marti with 24 goals across the last two seasons, including two in the reverse fixture. Like the rest of his team mates, he’s not as comfortable outside of his home though, with just six of his strikes coming away from the Estadi Ciutat de Valencia.
Los Che have already beaten Levante 4-2 away from home and with fans I’d have the hosts 8/15. It remains to be seen the true impact of having no fans, but at a best of 3/4 we're well compensated and they're a bet.
Best bet: Valencia to beat Levante at 3/4
La Liga Restart – Week ‘One’
With the restart of La Liga, some bookmakers are labelling it a ‘new season’ with a set of special outright markets for the remaining 11 games.
Markets such as Winner, To Finish Bottom and Top Goalscorer are available but the one that caught my eye is the ‘Lowest Scoring Team’ and I like the look of the current side with the least goals this season – Leganes.
Nineteenth-placed Leganes have won just five games all season, registering only 21 goals in those 27 games - and their stats across a number of key performance metrics don’t make for pretty reading.
Leganes season stats
- 19th for expected goals (27)
- 19th for possession (45%)
- 18th for shots in the six-yard box (0.6pg)
- 5th for shots outside the box (4.7pg)
- 19th for goals from set-pieces (5)
- 20th for penalties (1)
Essentially if they don’t score from open play - where they don’t have much of the ball and when they do they tend to shoot from distance - then they hardly score at all.
To add further weight to this they sold their two top scorers during the winter in Youssef En-Nesyri to Sevilla and the controversial move of Martin Braithwaite to Barcelona. The two combined for 10 goals – 48% of their total.
Their replacements, Miguel Guerrero and Roger Assale from the Greek and Swiss Super Leagues respectively, do not inspire. Alongside Guido Carrillo, who has just seven goals in 52 games, it’s difficult to see where the goals are going to come from.
All in all they look an excellent bet to continue to be the lowest scoring side. I’m staggered they’re only the fifth favourites in this market and available at a whopping 8/1.
Best bet: Leganes lowest scoring team in remaining 11 games at 8/1
LaLiga fixtures & kick-off times (BST)
Thursday June 11
- Sevilla v Real Betis - 9pm - Full preview
Friday June 12
- Granada v Getafe - 6.30pm
- Valencia v Levante - 9pm
Saturday June 13
- Espanyol v Alaves - 12pm
- Celta Vigo v Villarreal - 5pm
- Leganés v Real Valladolid - 7.30pm
- Mallorca v Barcelona - 9pm
Sunday June 14
- Athletic Bilbao v Atlético Madrid - 12pm
- Real Madrid v Eibar - 7.30pm
- Real Sociedad v Osasuna - 9pm
Odds correct as of 1000 BST on 11/06/20
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