Mark Stinchcombe previews Barcelona's bid to go back to the top of LaLiga against Athletic Bilbao on Tuesday night.
Recommended bet
2pts Barcelona to win and under 4.5 goals 8/11
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Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao
When I think of a Lionel Messi Barcelona, I think of a free-flowing, tiki-taka, devastating and dominating side. Messi coming in from the right with his world class ability, Suarez leading the line from the front, a pacy widemen cutting in from the left in Neymar or Dembele and Iniesta/Xavi pulling the strings in midfield.
That is no longer the case. Having lost Neymar and with Dembele regularly injured, they’ve tried to shoehorn in Antoine Griezmann and it really doesn’t have the same effect. No Iniesta or Xavi in midfield has been favoured by a more pragmatic player in any two of Frenkie de Jong, Arturo Vidal or Arthur.
Ivan Rakitic is seemingly out of favour with the hierarchy. Without this ‘Regista’ Barcelona simply do not create as much as they used to do. They still monopolise possession (62% per game - 1st in LaLiga) but too many of those passes are safe and as a result they only average 12.5 shots per-game – just the fifth most in the league.
Quique Setien took over from Ernesto Valverde in January and the best that Barca can be described as is ‘functional’. His six home games have delivered six wins but just 15 goals – 2.5 goals per game. And only two of those have come from the opposition.
Overall his 15 games have seen 39 goals, just 2.6 goals a game, including a 1-0 defeat at Bilbao in the Copa del Rey. However, we’re at the Nou Camp tonight and the men from the Basque country do not travel well.
For a top half side, it may surprise some that Bilbao don’t travel well, having won just seven of their last 44 away games. And at the Nou Camp they’ve lost 17 of their last 20 matches. Are these 20 trips relevant? Well, yes, given the Basque-only policy Bilbao adhere to.
All of Inaki Williams, Iker Munian, Unai Lopez, Inigo Cordoba, Yeray and Unai Simon - the core of the team - have spent their whole careers playing for the San Mames outfit. Even top scorer Raul Garcia has spent the last five seasons there. So we’ve seen many iterations of this match-up already.
In fact their matches tend to be low scoring, only one of the last 15 head-to-heads has seen over 4.5 goals with an average of 2.33 per game. With Barcelona having won 25 of their last 27 home games, I’m backing the Catalans to come out on top with less than 4.5 goals in the game at an enticing 8/11.
Best bet: Barcelona to win and under 4.5 goals 8/11
Price Boost: Lionel Messi to score from outside the penalty area at 5/1
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