Mark Stinchcombe previews Friday's LaLiga action as Atletico Madrid face Mallorca.
Recommended bets
Atletico Madrid v Real Mallorca
Friday 9pm LaLiga TV
Champions League hopefuls face relegation candidates in this top-of-the-table versus bottom-of-the-table clash at the Wanda Metropolitano. Atletico Madrid have been in good form since the resumption of LaLiga, going unbeaten when winning four of their six matches which also included a draw at the Nou Camp against Barcelona. It should be no surprise the Catalans struggled to break down a typically resolute Diego Simeone team. Only neighbours Real have a better defensive record and actually Atletico have conceded the fewest expected goals. This will be a very tough ask for a Real Mallorca side who find themselves in 18th, five points adrift of safety.
I actually previewed Mallorca’s last trip to the capital where they lost 2-0 to Real. They’ve now lost 13 of their last 20 games and this will be their seventh game in 18 days. Atletico were able to start all of Joao Felix, Alvaro Morata, Vitolo, Thomas Lemar, Hector Herrera and Kieran Trippier on the bench against Barcelona and should be much fresher as a result.
Mallorca have failed to score in nine of their last 16, and despite their five-goal haul against a very Jekyll and Hyde Celta Vigo team, when removing the penalty their expected goal total was less than one. In the previous game their only goal against Bilbao was also a penalty. Atletico won the reverse fixture 2-0 on the island with Mallorca registering an expected goals total of just 0.67. Real allow the third most shots, concede the most goals and concede the most expected goals. This should be a case of how many Atletico win by.
Best bet: Atletico to win to nil 8/11
Thursday's preview
Real Madrid v Getafe
Thursday 9pm LaLiga TV
After back-to-backs wins and Barcelona twice slipping up with draws, Real Madrid have the opportunity to create a four-point lead at the top of LaLiga. Priced at 1/3 it won’t be easy against an ‘aggressive’ Getafe side to put it mildly.
There’s no question the job Jose Bordalas has done is mightily impressive. Taking over in September 2016 he guided the club to promotion from the Segunda in his first season and has since backed that up with eighth and fifth-placed finishes and has the supporters once again this season dreaming of Champions League football. It’s exemplary the success he has achieved competing in the top five of the league with transfer fees and wages that don’t even begin to compare to the rest. He is squeezing everything out of his players and just goes to show how far hard work can get you. It doesn’t mean it is pretty though.
Their success in the main is built on their work without the ball. You wouldn’t expect a team in fifth to have the fifth lowest possession percentage, but they’ve only lost eight games this season and possess the fourth best defensive record. How? Well one of the reasons is they get ‘stuck in’.
They commit the most fouls in the league (18.9pg) and as a result have the worst discipline (111 yellow cards, three red cards). With Madrid only committing the 14th most fouls and as a result having the best discipline record (62 yellows, four reds), Getafe to collect the most booking points at 4/6 looks a cracking bet.
Since returning to La Liga, Getafe’s two trips to Real have seen them win this 70-10 and 45-10. The referee for this is Juan Martinez who averages 5.19 yellow cards per game and 0.13 red cards per game. He ranks second of 20 referees this season in fouls (31.25pg) so expect him to give plenty of free-kicks which should see the yellows for Getafe rack up. In his two games behind closed doors so far he’s dished out eight yellows in each.
For further interest, I’m going to recommend a bet on two of Getafe’s most carded players to be booked in a double. Damian Suarez has 13 yellows in 27 games and Jaime Mata has 11 in the same period. Both to be booked pays a huge looking 11/2. Suarez, a right-back, will be up against Eden Hazard of all people, and Mata, up against a certain Sergio Ramos. Both have history in this fixture with Suarez booked in the reverse game and Mata booked in this match last season. Despite being a striker, Jaime Mata, commits the third most fouls per game in the whole league.
Best bets:
Getafe most booking points 4/6
Jaime Mata & Damien Suarez both carded 11/2
Odds correct as 11:57am on 01/7/20
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