Liam Kelly has landed six of his last nine tips in his La Liga column. He searches for more value in the next round of fixtures.
- Follow @LiamKellyTTA on Twitter
Football betting tips: La Liga
1.5pts Over 13.5 Almería shots v Cádiz at 22/25 (Unibet)
1.5pts Atlético Madrid to win to nil v Valencia at 13/10 (BetVictor, Coral, Boylesports)
Atlético Madrid v Valencia
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Atlético Madrid 21/20 | Draw 11/5 | Valencia 13/5
Despite being fairly critical of Atlético Madrid for much of the season, I’ve been rather impressed by their recent outings, finally looking like the third best team in La Liga.
The table now reflects that after some typically tenacious wins and a 1-1 draw at the Bernabéu against city rivals Real.
A clash with Valencia at the Wanda Metropolitano is up next on Saturday night, and ATLÉTICO WIN TO NIL is of interest given the away side’s issues.
It’s a shame to see such a historical club run so poorly, currently embroiled in a relegation battle that should be beneath them.
A much-needed home win over Osasuna last weekend was deserved, but Rubén Baraja’s side have been poor visitors this season.
Indeed, Valencia have gained just six points and scored only eight goals in 12 away matches in the league. They face a Diego Simeone side that are more than adept at keeping a clean sheet in victory when on form.
Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 2-0 Valencia (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (17/03/23)
Almería v Cádiz
- Kick-off time: 13:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: Viaplay Sports 1, LaLigaTV
- Almería 1/1 | Draw 12/5 | Cádiz 11/4
A late melee in their game with Getafe last time out means Cádiz will be without members of the playing and coaching staff this weekend, making Almería’s task a little easier.
They don’t need too much help at the Power Horse Stadium, however. Only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Villarreal have gained more La Liga points than Almería as hosts this season.
That’s part of the reason why OVER 12.5 ALMERÍA SHOTS makes great appeal in this match-up, priced at 3/4 with Unibet.
Although they’ve lost five of their last six league fixtures, winning 1-0 against Barcelona in the other, Almería have put in some good attacking displays and are not so shot-shy at home.
When hosting, Almería have averaged 11.3 shots per game despite facing five of the top six teams in the table.
They should get attempts away against a shorthanded Cádiz that rarely impress on the road, averaging 2.08 expected goals against (xGA) per game when travelling this term.
Cádiz are undoubtedly a much-improved team after a rough start to the campaign, but many of the positive performances have been at home.
Score prediction: Almería 2-1 Cádiz (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (17/03/23)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
