Liam Kelly searches for more value in the next round of La Liga fixtures, looking to continue a profitable spell.
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Football betting tips: La Liga
2pts Over 23.5 Shots in Girona v Almería at 3/4 (Unibet)
1pt Under 0.5 First Half Goals in Getafe v Valencia at 5/4 (General)
Getafe v Valencia
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
- TV channel: LaLigaTV
- Girona 9/5 | Draw 19/10 | Almería 9/5
Despite the desperately short price (~2/5) for Under 2.5 Goals, seemingly a staple of the Getafe at home betting market experience, it’s not far off being value in this game against Valencia.
I obviously won’t be plumping for that, but the general 5/4 about UNDER 0.5 FIRST HALF GOALS makes appeal here.
Winless across their last six La Liga games, Getafe love to muck it up given the dearth of talent in the squad, averaging the lowest expected goals for per game (0.96 xGF per game) total of any team in the league.
Relegation-threatened Valencia have not been much better recently.
The appointment of Rubén Baraja is, of course, an emotional boost given his links to the club, but it certainly doesn’t come with the promise of attacking football.
Four of Valencia’s last five league games have been goalless at the half, and only 14 goals have been scored in their 10 away games this term, so it’s worth backing it to be a fairly uneventful first 45 minutes at the Coliseum.
Score prediction: Getafe 1-1 Valencia (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1330 GMT (17/02/23)
Girona v Almería
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV channel: Viaplay Xtra, LaLigaTV
- Girona 4/5 | Draw 13/5 | Almería 10/3
Girona are sitting pretty in La Liga as they welcome another promoted side to the Montilivi.
Friday night’s hosts have their home form to thank for their position of 11th in the table, too. Gaining 18 points from those 11 games is very solid, but their performances are what really impress me.
Indeed, only four La Liga teams can boast a better home expected goal difference (xGD) than Girona’s +7.1, all of which are currently in the top eight.
It’s therefore understandable that Girona are odds-on entering the match-up with Almería. However, the shots markets are more interesting in this one.
Girona are obviously dangerous going forward amid home comforts, averaging 14.7 shots taken per game this season, with seven of their highest eight shot totals this term coming at the Montilivi.
They do allow opponents to get attempts away, though.
Seven of their top nine shots allowed totals in the league campaign have come at home, clearly willing to risk an open, entertaining match, which makes OVER 23.5 MATCH SHOTS of interest at 3/4 with Unibet.
Almería are far from shot-shy despite holding a perilous position just above the relegation zone, especially in recent fixtures.
They’ve averaged 14.4 shots per game across their last seven games and can threaten the Girona goal as visitors.
Score prediction: Girona 2-1 Almería (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1130 GMT (16/02/23)
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