Iceland v England betting tips: Free Nations League tips, prediction, stats & latest odds

Recommended bets

• 2pts Half-time/full-time - England/England at 5/6
• 1pt England leading after 15 minutes at 16/5
• 0.5pt Harry Kane to score two or more goals at 4/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Iceland v England

• 5pm BST kick-off on Sky Sports
• Match Odds: Home 10/1 | Draw 17/4 | Away 1/4

England finally return to action on Saturday after 10 long months without an international fixture.

Gareth Southgate's team will be aiming to both build on their strong performance in the inaugural Nations League, when they finished third, and exact some long overdue revenge on an opponent that sent shockwaves round the world in 2016.

Defeat for Roy Hodgson's England in the last 16 of the Euros was a national humiliation.

While what happened in Nice seemed like more of an impossibility than a shock in Reykjavik does, I'm not expecting anything close to a second miracle.

Lots can change in four-and-a-half years.

England are a very different team, and few of the players from that night remain - recent recalls for Kyle Walker and Eric Dier mean they join Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane as the only members of the starting XI on that fateful evening to be in the current squad; Marcus Rashford was an 86th-minute substitute.

But we know all about England's exploits under Southgate, what about the current Iceland team?

Since qualification for Euro 2020 began early last year, they have kept seven clean sheets in 12 matches. During that run they were thrashed 4-0 in France, and then suffered a shock 4-2 defeat in Albania - almost exactly 12 months ago.

But Iceland's response to such a dreadful performance has been to allow only two goals past them in six matches.

What makes international football such a curious beast however, is the range of opponents that teams come up against. Yes, Iceland are largely defensive, whose tactics are based on their strength - do clean sheets against Andorra, Canada, El Salvador and Turkey prove anything though?

Turkey, maybe, the rest definitely not.

Similar can be said for England and their goal-scoring exploits in the same period of time: 38 in 10 games, 27 of which have come in their past six matches. Kosova, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Czech Republic didn't put up much of a fight in the majority of those encounters.

It's for these reasons that the under/over goals market is a tricky one, and why there is precious little value on offer.

What we can expect though, is that Iceland are not a side we should be backing to make things difficult for the Three Lions.

In the inaugural edition of the Nations League, they lost all four matches against Belgium and Switzerland, scoring just once and conceding 13 goals.

Given England's recent strong performances, what did catch my eye was half-time/full-time - England/England at 5/6. Ordinarily, a price under evens might seem like scant reward but we are really trying to dig out some value here.

Southgate's team have led at half-time in eight of their last nine wins, with the only exception a dramatic 2-1 victory over Croatia in their previous Nations League campaign.

With smaller stakes, I really like England leading after 15 minutes at 16/5 too. That has happened in three of their last four wins - England leading after 30 minutes at 13/8 is there for the more risk averse.

And finally, I cannot in good conscience leave the England captain out of the staking plan for this one.

He's found the net in each of the team's past six matches, scoring 10 goals in total - including two hat-tricks.

Kane to score two or more goals at 4/1 is where my money is going. He's also a huge 18/1 to bag a fourth treble for his country, and 5/2 as first goalscorer, both of which are tempting.

He finished the season in superb form for Tottenham, with five goals in his last three appearances, so let's hope he carries that into Saturday's match for the Three Lions.

Keep your eyes peeled for a boosted offer on a Kane brace because that's paid off for us in the past when tipping him for Tottenham, with some bookies offering as high as 10/1 on the day and living to regret it.

I'm still taking the 4/1 though.

Score prediction: Iceland 0-3 England (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bets:

• 2pts Half-time/full-time - England/England at 5/6
• 1pt England leading after 15 minutes at 16/5
• 0.5pt Harry Kane to score two or more goals at 4/1

Odds correct as of 1530 BST on 03/09/20

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