Just how bad is Liverpool's away form and why?

• Published before Liverpool's 1-0 defeat to Real Madrid

Gary O’Neil’s side had forfeited a 2-0 lead in their previous match, losing 3-2 to Arsenal with the last kick of the game. This was expected to be a routine win for the in-form Reds, who had kept five successive clean sheets during a run in which they had picked up 13 points from a possible 15.

There’s nothing normal about this campaign for Jurgen Klopp’s team though. Especially away from Anfield.

Liverpool have played 13 away matches in the Premier League this season and have beaten just three opponents - Tottenham, Aston Villa and Newcastle. In fact, they have taken just 12 points from a possible 39 on the road and rank 11th when looking at away tallies only.

In all honesty, it probably would’ve been more of a shock had the Reds beaten the Cherries on Saturday.

Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Brentford had all beaten Klopp’s side already while Everton and Crystal Palace managed to hold them to goalless draws.

Reds attack toothless on the road

The inconsistent Reds are averaging just a goal a game when playing away from home, significantly down on the 2.61 they’re averaging when playing at Anfield.

This poor form extends beyond the Premier League.

They were knocked out of both domestic cups when on their travels - losing 3-2 to Manchester City in the Carabao Cup and 2-1 to Brighton in the FA Cup. The 2019/20 champions also lost 4-1 at Napoli to kick off their Champions League campaign.

....but wasteful too

No doubt, Liverpool have been unlucky (and wasteful) in some of these away defeats. They have failed to score in losses to Forest, Wolves, Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth from an expected goals (xG) total of 9.85.

In the goalless draws with Everton and Palace, the Reds had a combined xG haul of 3.79.

Too open away from Anfield

To really contextualise this, in the aforementioned seven matches, Liverpool picked up just two points despite racking up an xG total of 13.64.

However, here’s the issue. The Reds may have created chances but they have also been giving them up. Across those seven games, they had an xGA (expected goals against) total of 13.52 and the opposition finished with an xG of over two in three of those matches.

Alisson Becker was only beaten on 11 occasions, so it could’ve, and probably should’ve, been worse for the Reds. While they’ve been unlucky at one end, they’ve also had a bit of luck at the other.

'Failure to be in complete control'

These away games tend to follow a certain pattern. Liverpool average around 54% of the ball, enough to look in control but not enough to be in complete control. It is also down on their season average of 60%. They are usually looking to force the play in the hope of getting an early goal which would then allow them to sit off and play on the break.

It hasn’t happened for them though and these matches instead turn into basketball games with both teams getting chances and Liverpool unable to completely nullify their opponents.

The fall-off has been quite dramatic and it has gone somewhat under the radar, for some reason mixed in with their overall poor form.

Across the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons, Liverpool averaged 2.31 points per game away from home. This figure dropped to 1.89 per game during the infamous injury-riddled 2020/21 campaign. It was back up at 2.26 last season as the Reds finished just a point behind Manchester City in the race for the title.

As things stand, Klopp’s men are averaging just 0.92 points per game away from home this season. Extrapolate that over the entirety of a season and it equates to just 17.4 away points from 19 matches.

Away form must be fixed for top four tilt

Given teams tend to need around 70 points to finish in the top four, Liverpool would need to pick up 53 points at Anfield at a rate of 2.8 per game to get close to that figure. For the Reds to finish in the top four with this sort of away form, they would need to essentially win every single game at home. That is how drastically bad their away record is.

Yet their next three away fixtures could make or break their campaign.

The Merseysiders travel to Madrid this week looking to overturn a 5-2 aggregate scoreline in the Champions League. Then, after the international break, the Reds make the trip to the Etihad to take on title-chasing Manchester City before visiting Stamford Bridge just a couple of days later.

Liverpool have already lost at Old Trafford and The Emirates this season. They are in desperate need of a victory away from home at one of the traditional big five.

Their next home match is against leaders Arsenal on April 9 and it is no exaggeration to say their season could be hanging by a thread by then.

Right now, they are six points adrift of fourth-placed Spurs with a game in hand (against Chelsea). If results go against them, they could be welcoming the Gunners to Anfield, nine points off the Champions League pace with no games in hand and with just 10 matches left to make up that ground.

It has felt like a season of make-or-break fixtures for this Liverpool team but these next three matches will likely define the current campaign.

And shape the next.

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