Joao Felix: Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal, Aston Villa target in focus

By Joe Townsend

Football

Tue January 17, 2023 · 2y ago

We revisit our Paper Talk: Cutting Through analysis of Joao Felix after Chelsea complete the signing of the Portugal star from Atletico Madrid.

Article originally published as part of Paper Talk: Cutting Through series before Felix joined Chelsea

Joao Felix

Age: 23
Position: Forward
Club: Atletico Madrid
Country: Portugal

One of the most talked about players in the build-up to the transfer window, speculation about the future of Joao Felix only intensified in the early stages of January.

Signed from Benfica by Atletico Madrid for £113m in 2019, still the fourth-highest fee in history, the 23-year-old Portugal forward has started only nine of Atleti’s 21 fixtures in La Liga and the Champions League this season, making the same number of appearances from the bench.

Highest transfer fees in history

Neymar - Barcelona to PSG - £198m
Kylian Mbappe - Monaco to PSG - £163m
Philippe Coutinho - Liverpool to Barcelona - £142m
Joao Felix - Benfica to Atletico - £112.9m
Antoine Griezmann - Atletico to Barcelona - £107m
Jack Grealish - Aston Villa to Man City - £100m
Romelu Lukaku - Inter to Chelsea - £97.5m
Ousmane Dembele - Dortmund to Barcelona - £97m
Paul Pogba - Juventus to Man United - £89m
Eden Hazard - Chelsea to Real Madrid - £88m

Diego Simeone’s men currently sit fourth domestically, 11 points behind both Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top, and were eliminated from the Champions League after finishing bottom of a group containing Porto, Bruges and Leverkusen.

Felix’s 237 minutes of European action is far too small a sample size to judge him on, but in La Liga his output doesn't seem to indicate he is a player struggling to make an impact when given an opportunity. He has provided four goals and three assists, with his underlying numbers impressive.

Felix is averaging 0.69 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 95 minutes, not far shy of last season’s 0.77 – standout given that was an injury-ravaged campaign. For context, his much-lauded team-mate Antoine Griezmann is averaging 0.67.

He also compares favourably with the leading attacking midfielders in the Premier League.

Joa Felix xGI versus Premier League attacking midfielders

However, his limited game-time has been a consistent theme of his spell in the Spanish capital.

Ankle, foot and hamstring injuries meant Felix started only 13 league matches last term, making 11 substitute appearances. In 2020/21 it was only 14 starts (17 from the bench) as he contributed seven goals and five assists, averaging an xGI/95 of 0.60.

His best season in terms of starts came in 19/20, his debut campaign at the Wanda Metropolitano, and even then it was only 21 league starts from a possible 38, with six appearances from the bench (xGI/95 of 0.53).