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Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend
- Jimmy's Punt: Staked: 108.5pts | Returned: 117.06pts | P/L: +8.56pts | ROI: 7.9%
Football betting tips: EPL & EFL
Sunday 19:45
1pt A red card for both teams in Marseille vs PSG at 35/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
You can’t win them all but one would’ve been nice last weekend.
None of the seven selections got up in the last edition but it serves me right for messing around with prices around even money. You want touts you can plan a holiday around not set your watch too (Simpsons) and I have obliged here. Not without good reason though, there is plenty to get excited about this weekend.
There is the usual smattering of EFL, we also go across to the continent and take a trip down under. We’ve got goalscoring centre backs, red cards galore, shock results and the return of generational wealth.
Before we get into it though I have been told to make it known there won't be a column next weekend. I’m in Cornwall on family business but a word to the wise; keep an eye out for Kettering's prices vs Northampton in the FA Cup (currently around 11/1). It has got all the hallmarks of an upset and Kettering’s star studded frontline could have a say, I am excited to see Nile Ranger's and Gary Hooper's anytime goalscorer prices.
Anyway, this weekend first.
Marseille vs Paris St Germain
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- Home 12/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/20
Le Classique has thrown up two red cards across the last four Ligue 1 meetings and Marseille are on a hiding to nothing in the disciplinary department this season.
There have been six red cards brandished across Marseille's last six games and their tally of three is the most in the division.
At 35/1, back BOTH TEAMS TO RECEIVE A RED CARD appeals.
Francois Letexier is the man with the whistle and could be pretty obliging as he has flashed a red card in just under a quarter of his 159 Ligue 1 appearances.
This bet has already landed in a Marseille game this season, just two games ago in fact, when they and Angers had a man sent off inside 30 minutes.
Already advised
Saturday 09:35
1pt A red card for both teams in Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory at 45/1 (William Hill)
Saturday 12:30
0.5pt Amadou Mbengue to score anytime in Reading vs Bristol Rovers at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Tyler Bindon to score anytime in Reading vs Bristol Rovers at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00
1pt QPR to beat Burnley at 9/2 (General)
0.5pt QPR to win to nil vs Burnley at 8/1 (General)
1pt Miles Leaburn to score anytime in Charlton vs Wrexham at 11/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Miles Leaburn to score 2+ goals at 20/1 (bet365, Sky Bet)
1pt Scott Hogan to score anytime in Grimsby vs MK Dons at 13/5 (bet365)
Sunday 15:15
1pt A red card for both teams in Getafe vs Valencia at 28/1 (William Hill)
Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory
- Kick-off time: 09:35 BST, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Home 17/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/10
The Melbourne derby should be rife for cards, a market the A-League often delivers in.
Aside from the match-up producing 37 cards in the last six meetings, referee Alex King has dished out an average of over four cards a game in Australia's top flight and 37 red cards. In his only appearance this season, he produced seven yellows and a red card.
The sides have already met three times this year and the games saw 11, eight and five cards. The most recent in the play-off stage of the Grand Final and although BOTH TEAMS TO RECEIVE A RED CARD wouldn’t have officially clicked, both teams did finish the 120 minutes a man light.
Zinedine Machach received his marching orders within 37 minutes and considering his record in this clash, he’ll do well to keep out of the referees notebook this Saturday. He has been carded in all of his four appearances in this Derby.
Melbourne City captain Aziz Behich should also be good for a card. The hosts skipper picked up three in 10 league appearances last term and considering the occasion and referee, will do well to keep out of trouble here.
As I write, not all firms have priced up these markets but should prices suit, the pair could be worth backing to be carded and obviously, in a double as well.
Reading vs Bristol Rovers
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 3/1
Bristol Rovers are not just the worst side at defending set pieces in Sky Bet League One, but the entire football league. Considering the underlying data, it is a minor miracle they have only conceded eight times from them.
Huddersfield centre back Matty Pearson opened the scoring last weekend, while centre-backs Alex Mitchell (Charlton) and Joe Low (Wycombe) have also bagged against Rovers within the last month so it makes sense to split stakes across Reading’s likely starters.
AMADOU MBENGUE should partner TYLE BINDON at the heart of the Royals defence and both are 20/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
- CLICK HERE to back Amadou Mbengue to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Tyler Bindon to score anytime with Sky Bet
Mbengue has scored once this season and although Bindon is yet to bag, he is averaging just under one shot a game. So, there is a case to be made for each and it would be a real shame if they both scored.
Burnley vs QPR
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/6 | Draw 13/5 | Away 4/1
The table does lie. It's lying to your face right now. One of the most blatant lies I’ve ever seen.
Scott Parker-ball at is boring, lucky, stupid best.
His Burnley side scored nine times in their first two games from an xG of 2.27, a hot streak which has since proven to be unsustainable. The Clarets have only netted eight goals in the nine games since failing to score in a third of those contests which is a concern considering they were against Sunderland (who finished with 10 men), newly promoted Oxford and Preston.
Parker has a track record of struggling against poorer sides. At Fulham in 19/20, Parker only won two of eight games against the bottom four and his 21/22 Bournemouth side only won half. That is only six wins in 16 games, which is enough to cast some doubt over Burnley’s odds-on price this weekend.
Aside from the stalemates with Oxford and Preston recently, Burnley needed a penalty to beat Plymouth and an injury time winner to get past Portsmouth.
I want to get against them but the issue is they are playing QPR, a side whose only league win this season came back in August.
Amongst the disappointing form, Martí Cifuentes’ side actually fare quite well against the biggest and best sides.
They came from two down to draw at Bramall Lane against Sheffield United and beat Luton at Kenilworth Road. The Hoops lost on opening day to West Brom but Josh Maja scored a hattrick as the Baggies netted three of their four shots on target.
I think the visitors are worth a small punt TO WIN and an even smaller punt TO WIN TO NIL.
Charlton vs Wrexham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 2/1 | Away 19/10
MILES LEABURN looks like a player.
The 20-year-old frontman is a blend of pace, power and tidy feet. He made his first start of the season on Tuesday at Oakwell where I watched him terrorise the Barnsley back-line live in the flesh.
Granted, Leaburn did not score in midweek and he has not scored this season (only played 129 minutes) but across the previous two campaigns, the academy graduate bagged 15 goals in 48 appearances which translates to a goals per 90 average of 0.48.
Assuming he got through Tuesday unscathed, he should start off Matty Godden on Saturday and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is simply too big. For the same reasons, backing him TO SCORE 2+ GOALS in front of a bumper crowd at the Valley is worth a poke, it’s 20/1 in places but half the price with some firms.
Grimsby vs MK Dons
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 21/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 21/20
Shrewd business by MK Dons securing the services of SCOTT HOGAN.
He has spent the majority of his career in the Championship posting a goals per 90 average of 0.42.
Now 32-years-old, Hogan was last playing in Sky Bet League Two 10 years ago where he scored 17 goals for Rochdale.
Having hit double figures in each of his last two seasons in the second tier with Birmingham he should get plenty two divisions further down the pyramid. Hogan's opened his account with a goal at Morecambe and will fancy his chances of doubling his tally at Grimsby, a side who have conceded seven goals in their last two league games at Blundell Park.
At 13/5, backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals.
Getafe vs Valencia
- Kick-off time: 15:15 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Premier Sports 1
- Home 6/5 | Draw 19/10 | Away 13/5
File this one under the no love lost category.
The last six La Liga head-to-heads have seen 43 yellows and seven red cards. Jake told me about the game, the likelihood for cards and why there is animosity but I have forgotten the reason.
Nevertheless, backing BOTH TEAMS TO RECEIVE A RED CARD would have paid out in half of those last six duels and although it has been nibbled in from 35/1 to 28/1, there is still enough juice in the price to back another feisty encounter.
The referee in charge is also averaging 0.31 red cards per game across 115 La Liga appearances.
Generational wealth
The stars may have aligned here; three games between six rivals and all of them have card happy officials. So, it only seems right to combine each of them to have red cards. Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory, Getafe vs Valencia and Marseille vs PSG.
- Red cards in each game at 35/1 with William Hill
- Each team to get red cards at 34,683/1 with William Hill
Odds correct at 1740 BST (25/10/24)
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