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Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30
1pt Tom Naylor to be carded in Chesterfield vs Notts County at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Lewis Macari to be carded at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Naylor and Macari to be carded at 17/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Port Vale to beat MK Dons at 23/10 (William Hill)
0.5pts Theo Vassell to score anytime in Barrow vs Morecambe at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Shilow Tracey to score anytime in Doncaster vs Crewe at 9/2 (bet365)
Another international break which means it is time to take stock on the column.
What I do know is Ben Wiles scored his fourth of the season last weekend which was the column's only winner. And with barely any League One action and no Premier League and Championship fixtures none of the usual suspects are available to lean on this weekend so I have had to do something unprecedented and look for new punts.
There’s no Wiles to bail us out here but to be honest I think that is the last we’ll see of him because surely his price won’t stick around now. The blind faith in Wiles and Donovan Pines was becoming a bit tiresome, especially with Pines benched last weekend and sent off in midweek.
A slight tweak in approach could be just the tonic. Refresh the picks, refresh the column and hopefully get back amongst the winners.
There is plenty to get excited about in Sky Bet League Two this weekend as well.
Chesterfield renew hostilities with their old fifth-tier foe Notts County and there is a card happy referee overseeing things in Derbyshire. Port Vale are a backable price to upset the apple cart in Milton Keynes, there is a set-piece mis-match at Holker Street and there is a winger playing up front in Doncaster.
Chesterfield vs Notts County
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 10/11 | Draw 5/2 | Away 23/10
Sky Bet League Two game on the telly. You know what that means. Player card markets.
A rare treat and one worth indulging in.
The last four league meetings between these two have thrown up 23 cards (5.75 per game). Maybe not much use given the change at Notts County but more relevant is the card-happy official Matthew Corlett.
In three League Two games this term he's dished out 23 bookings (10/6/7), he has an all time average of over five a game and gave eight in his only League One appearance.
TOM NAYLOR looks the most likely candidate.
Four to his name in 10 domestic appearances, the question is not so much will he get carded more where exactly will he play.
Mr Versatile has featured as a number 10, defensive midfielder, centre-back and right-back this term but regardless of where he is on the pitch, he mucks in defensively.
I also think LEWIS MACARI is worth a poke at 6/1 TO BE CARDED, that is the second biggest Notts price in this market.
The Scotsman has two to his name this season and averages just under two tackles and fouls per game this season but crucially should be opposing Armando Dobra.
Macari plays right-back or right sided centre-back and although Dobra starts as a 10 on paper, he does like to drift over to the left side interchanging with James Berry.
Dobra has been fouled 2.2 times per game this season drawing two cards from right-backs and one from right sided centre-backs and drawing at least one foul from his direct opponent in each of his nine starts (1/1/3/3/2/1/1/0/3).
I’ve also combined the pair of Naylor and Macari at 17/1 with Sky Bet, some firms have it at 12s.
Barrow vs Morecambe
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 11/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 4/1
Barrow are the shortest priced side in the division to win on Saturday and with good reason.
No side has won more points (19), games (6) or taken more points at home (13) so far this term.
What’s more, they host the only winless side in the division, Morecambe.
Crucially, this clash is also a set-piece mismatch. The hosts have already netted five times from dead-ball situations and Morecambe have shipped six and an xGA of 5.39.
THEO VASSELL is the Bluebirds' top goalscorer (3) from centre-back posting an xG per 90 of 1.37 so his price of 17/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME will do for me.
Doncaster vs Crewe
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 7/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 16/5
Crewe punished a defensively stubborn Gillingham twice on the counter attack last weekend and no doubt Lee Bell will be deploying similar tactics in Doncaster.
SHILOW TRACEY started up front and his pace was used to sting the Gills defence to great effect as he netted both goals.
Although the attacker is far from prolific, he had only scored eight domestic goals prior to last weekend, the change in position could be all the encouragement he needs and at 9/2, backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME in South Yorkshire is the bet.
MK Dons vs Port Vale
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 11/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 21/10
Port Vale had Chesterfield’s number marked.
Darren Moore’s side squeezed their midfield, let them have possession at the back and limited the ante-post favourites to very little.
The Spireites had 61% possession but only four shots, none of which hit the target.
It was a similar story in the 1-0 win over Notts County last weekend. Granted, Notts were without star man Jodi Jones and racked up an xG 1.65 from three shots on target, but break that down and not a single shot had a xG value greater than 0.22.
Although that win was a little fortunate, Vale dispatched another one of the fourth tier's big hitters and extended their unbeaten run to seven games.
Ultimately, the angle is all about the price. The visitors are 23/10 and getting chipped in.
Vale went off at 8/5 at Meadow Lane and were the same price at home to Chesterfield. They also went off shorter at home to Doncaster and at Barrow so even though they lost those two games (conceding seven), there is certainly some juice in the away side's price TO WIN this weekend.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (11/10/24)
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