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Jimmy's Punt: Premier League & EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend
- Jimmy's Punt: Staked 11pts | Returned 17pts | P/L +6pts | ROI 54%
Football betting tips: Premier League & League One
Late Premier League Outrights
0.5pts e.w. Dominic Solanke top assist at 50/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4)
0.5pts e.w. James Maddison top goalscorer at 300/1 (Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Saturday (15:00)
2pts Under 3.5 goals in Manchester City vs Ipswich at evens (General)
1pt Dominic Solanke 1+ assist in Spurs vs Everton at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Barnsley vs Northampton at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt Ben Wiles to score anytime in Huddersfield vs Shrewsbury at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Wiles to score 2+ goals at 66/1 (Sky Bet)
I have to begin on a bad note.
It was very frustrating to watch Barnsley centre-back Marc Roberts nod home from a well-worked set-piece routine at Lincoln, after tipping his partner Donovan Pines to do the same last weekend.
The other gripe is with Charlie Goode of Stevenage who cleared a Ben Wiles effort from the line. If it wasn’t for that intervention, Wiles would have scored a brace and secured us a 80/1 winner.
Oh well. Plenty more to go at this weekend.
I've got seven picks for Saturday, two Premier League outrights and three 'generational wealth' punts at 740/1, 38,531/1 and 852,641/1 because you never know.
Manchester City vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/12 | Draw 9/1 | Away 20/1
It would be ridiculous to back no goals to be scored at the Etihad wouldn’t it?
It has only happened twice (23/24 Arsenal and 21/22 Southampton) across the previous four seasons.
AK Bets have pegged it at a huge 45/1 if you are that way inclined, bet365 currently have it at 25/1 for context.
It is not completely unimaginable, it took Liverpool an hour to break the deadlock against Ipswich at Portman Road before adding a second five minutes later to grapple control from Kieran McKenna’s plucky side.
The Tractor Boys defended courageously, lots of blocks (15), lots of tackles (20) and plenty of PASSSSSHON (98.2% by my calculations).
Ipswich more than held their own in the first-half, outshooting the Reds and seeing their fair share of the ball. Granted, Arne Slot unleashed an onslaught in the second half and the hosts tired.
Nevertheless, there were only two goals at Portman Road.
The thing is, McKenna is going to set his side out in a much more defensive manner against Manchester City.
Last term, Ipswich home games averaged 3.95 goals and away games averaged 2.5, 17 of which saw UNDER 3.5 GOALS (74%).
Across the last four seasons, this bet has actually clicked in seven of the 12 games at the Etihad where City have played one of the new boys.
Tottenham vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 15/4 | Away 21/4
There is a cracking video on James Lawrence Allcott’s Youtube channel on DOMINIC SOLANKE (highly recommend) and it got me thinking about some betting avenues the signing opens up.
Late to the party but I am touting him to make the MOST ASSISTS this term. In short the thinking is; he got plenty at Bournemouth, he created almost as many chances as he scored, he is playing in a better team, Harry Kane grabbed loads for Tottenham and Ange Postecoglou’s strikers chipped in with plenty of assists at Celtic.
At Bournemouth, Solanke scored 72 goals and set up 27 more. In 2022/23, Solanke finished on seven assists and notched up 15 in the two Championship seasons before.
He joined Tottenham to fill the void left by Harry Kane, a player who grabbed 46 assists for Spurs - 14 in 2020/21 which was the most of any player that term.
Obviously, it would be a lazy comparison to say ‘well Kane did it in a Spurs shirt so why can’t Solanke?’ It was only four seasons ago though.
Granted, different manager, hugely different squad but if anything with Son Heung-min, Brennan Johnson and JAMES MADDISON in the current side, Solanke could be the perfect, selfless foil.
Solanke could well bring out the best in Maddison as well.
The England international's form has been fleeting in North London, marred by injury but there should be no doubt over his pedigree.
He hit double figures for goals (12 & 10) in his final two seasons at Leicester and now playing alongside an out and out frontman for the first time at Tottenham, we could see him beat his previous tallies. At 300/1, backing him to finish as TOP GOALSCORER provides some interest.
Obviously this is a bit of a daft one, he is injury prone and has never been placed in this market but I guess that's why the odds suggest a 0.3% chance of the bet winning...
As for this weekend's clash, Solanke's price to get 1+ ASSIST is worth a punt at 11/2.
Barnsley vs Northampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 18/5
DONOVAN PINES could become a regular fixture in the column.
The centre back did not bag last weekend, in fact, he was the only Barnsley centre-back not to have at least one shot against Lincoln but I think this is worth overlooking.
Pines' goalscoring record for the Reds is outrageous. He has netted three in five starts and could add to that tally against Northampton.
The Cobblers have conceded twice in League One this term, both of which have come via corners with Exeter centre-back Tristan Crama bagging the opener last weekend.
This set-piece vulnerability isn’t anything new for Jon Brady’s men. Last term, only four League One sides trumped Northampton's xGA of 17.33 from dead ball situations.
At 10/1, Pines TO SCORE ANYTIME is the bet.
Huddersfield vs Shrewsbury
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 16/5 | Away 6/1
BEN WILES has been the saviour of this column, two goals in as many games and 17/2 and 13/2 winners. I’ll put the trumpet away, I am just grateful, my GOAT.
Frustratingly, as already mentioned, he could have hit the double at the weekend but for a combination of Murphy Cooper and Goode on the line. Skip to 30 seconds on the video below to watch the clearances and 3:42 mins to watch the bet winning strike.
Given his form, I still think there is enough juice in Wiles' price TO SCORE ANYTIME again.
In 169 minutes, Wiles has scored twice, set up one, had seven shots and hit the target with three and given this form, why stop now?
Huddersfield were 7/10 to beat Stevenage last weekend and Wiles was 13/2 to net, this weekend the Terriers are 4/11 to beat Shrewsbury so the 11/2 about another Wiles goal is worth another go.
Town are 4/7 TO SCORE 2+, Shrewsbury are without a clean sheet this term and have shipped seven in their last two so it would be rude not to back a Wiles brace.
Generational wealth
Who says no?
Anytime TRIXIE @ 740/1
- Horsfall (Stockport vs Bristol Rovers)
- Pines (Barnsley vs Northampton)
- Wiles (Huddersfield vs Shrewsbury)
Brace TRIXIE @ 852,641/1
- Horsfall (Stockport vs Bristol Rovers)
- Pines (Barnsley vs Northampton)
- Wiles (Huddersfield vs Shrewsbury)
Job lot @ 38,531/1
- Mazraoui card (Brighton vs Man Utd)
- Horsfall anytime (Stockport vs Bristol Rovers)
- Pines anytime (Barnsley vs Northampton)
- Wiles anytime (Huddersfield vs Shrewsbury)
- Solanke 1+ assist (Spurs vs Everton)
- Under 3.5 goals (Man City vs Ipswich)
Already advised:
1pt Noussair Mazraoui to be shown a card in Brighton vs Man Utd at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Stockport vs Bristol Rovers at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports
- Home 29/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 6/4
Kaoru Mitoma is so back.
I assume most of his opponents read his thesis on dribbling because they appeared to suss the Japanese winger out last term. If the first game against Everton is anything to go by, he could be back to his very best this season.
This is great news for fans of good old fashioned wing play and tackle/foul/card backers alike.
At Goodison, Mitoma attempted 10 dribbles, had four shots, hit the target with three, scored with one and got Everton's Ashley Young was sent off.
Targeting his opposite number in the tackles, fouls or card market has to be the way in on the South Coast this weekend and NOUSSAIR MAZRAOUI should be the man tasked with containing him.
Young became the second player to be sent off against Mitoma in as many games (Mason Holgate, Sheffield United) and the third player in five appearances to be carded (Ben White, Arsenal).
At 11/2, Mazraoui’s price TO BE SHOWN A CARD is worth a punt.
Stockport vs Bristol Rovers
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 5/6 | Draw 23/10 | Away 14/5
In Sky Bet League One, only Exeter have conceded more xGA from set pieces than Bristol Rovers (18) since the beginning of last season.
None of Northampton’s centre-backs had an attempt against Bristol Rovers on opening weekend but since then, Cardiff’s (and now Luton's) Mark McGuinness had four in the cup, scoring once, while Rotherham’s had three between them with Jamie McCart rattling the woodwork.
The point is, Stockport’s centre-backs might be worth a look TO SCORE ANYTIME, FRASER HORSFALL to be more specific.
County’s defender had two shots on matchday one and has bagged 16 goals across a career spanning 190 appearances (0.09 goals per 90). He looks primed to exploit the Pirates' weakness on Saturday.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (22/08/2024)
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