- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 151pts | Returned 142.66pts | P/L -8.34pts | ROI -5.5%
Football betting tips: EFL
Friday 19:45
1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Stockport vs Peterborough at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Fraser Horsfall to score 2+ goals at 150/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Leyton Orient to beat Barnsley at 29/10 (Betfair)
1pt Andre Green to score anytime in Mansfield vs Rotherham at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Andre Green to score 2+ goals at 50/1 (bet365)
1pt Harrogate to beat Walsall at 15/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt No first goalscorer in Harrogate vs Walsall at 10/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
*More bets to appear here
We’re back. We’re are so back.
Warra weekend it was for the column.
Winners at 13/2, 10/1 and 18/1. We also went within a whisker of a 436/1 generational wealth punt (why didn’t Andre Onana let it run for a goal kick grrrr) and down to my own negligence, a 22/1 card double went by the wayside.
Oh well.
It felt like everything was coming up Jimrod last weekend. With the champagne on ice I treated myself to a few days fishing and caught a 32lbs Carp within an hour of arriving. When your luck is in and all that...
Good news is I like my bets how I like my carp: big and fat. And I got plenty of fatso’s in the staking plan this weekend.
Stockport vs Peterborough
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- Home 8/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 29/10
I said before the first tout of FRASER HORSFALL that I thought 10/1 was value for him TO SCORE ANYTIME, so the 12/1 available is worth sticking with, as is the price about 2+ GOALS even though the bet hasn’t clicked yet.
- CLICK HERE to back Fraser Horsfall to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Fraser Horsfall to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
According to the data, Sunday’s opponents Peterborough represent as good a chance as any for Stockport’s centre-back to score again.
Posh have shipped an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 8.95 and conceded nine actual goals from set-pieces this season.
Cameron McGeehan netted for Northampton from a set-piece recently. As have Klaidi Lolos of Bolton, Birmingham’s Krystian Bielik and Wrexham’s Max Cleworth in games against Darren Ferguson's side.
Barnsley vs Leyton Orient
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 23/10 | Away 13/5
LEYTON ORIENT are worth getting onside at Oakwell considering their price.
They have won seven of their last 10 in all competitions and half of their eight League One games over that period.
Gab Sutton was onto Richie Wellens' uptick over a month ago.
I reckon Leyton Orient could have an outside shot at the Play-Offs. One of only a handful of teams in League One that have made an impression on me in terms of base performance level (Shrews & Wyc A aside), and if it can start to click in the final third, consistency awaits.
— Gabriel Sutton (@GabSutton) November 10, 2024
Hosts, Barnsley are a bit of an enigma.
Darrell Clarke said the 2-1 win at Exeter was the worst he has seen them play recently. I didn’t watch the full match so I’ll have to trust his judgement but there's certainly some South Yorkshire voodoo for the Tykes.
In 10 league home games, Barnsley have been favourites nine times yet only won twice. I watched them go toe-to-toe with Birmingham and Stockport only to get undone by poor discipline and the individual brilliance of two of the best players in the league, Louie Barry and Jay Stansfield.
It is hard to think of a time when Barnsley have played well for the full 90 minutes at Oakwell though and that is why the opposition always have a chance. The absence of Marc Roberts and Josh Earl in defence must also be factored in.
Backing Leyton Orient to get a result is 'safer' play but at a shade under 3/1, taking them TO WIN is the more appealing move.
Mansfield vs Rotherham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 9/5
Rotherham are gathering momentum. It’s early days but they are unbeaten in four now (3W, 1D) and were imperious in the most recent victory over Northampton.
Granted, the Cobblers are a poor side but it was the first time we have seen the Millers matched-up the scoreline to their dominance and I think it was largely down to ANDRE GREEN.
It was Jonson Clarke-Harris who got the plaudits after scoring a brace but Green set up his second and scored Rotherham’s third.
Green’s career has been blighted by injury but his quality has never been up for debate and his performance in the last outing had the Millers faithful waxing lyrical.
At 5/1 and 50/1, both his prices TO SCORE ANYTIME and 2+ GOALS look good.
- CLICK HERE to back Andre Green to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Andre Green to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
What was striking against Northampton was Green’s speed of thought - he is clearly a cut above the level. I just hope he can keep out of the treatment room and put Mansfield to the sword on Saturday.
The Stags' season is spiralling out of control. Nigel Clough’s side have lost five of their last seven and not won on their own patch in the league since the beginning of October.
Harrogate vs Walsall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/2 | Draw 5/2 | Away 4/6
League Two’s joint-top scorers Walsall had an off day in the 1-0 win over Barrow in their last domestic outing.
Matt Sadler’s side only managed an xG of 0.58 from 10 shots, their best effort had a value of 0.18 and their goal was a strange one from distance.
Maybe it was just a blip but with a trip to HARROGATE next, I think another low-scoring affair could be on the cards considering the pair's direct approaches.
At 10/1, I think backing NO FIRST GOALSCORER is worth a punt.
This bet may have only clicked in one of Walsall’s 19 league games this term but 45% of those on the road have seen one or fewer goals scored.
Although it contradicts the other pick (barring a Walsall own goal), HARROGATE also look a good price TO WIN.
Saturday's hosts have a knack of picking up results against the big boys. In 11 games, Town have won five times (46%) despite their average odds suggesting an average implied probability of 21%.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (19/12/24)
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