Jimmy's Punt: Euro 2024 tips and predictions for the round of 16
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill picks out his best bets from the round of 16 of fixtures at Euro 2024, when Kylian Mbappe is in focus once again.
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
Monday
3pts Kylian Mbappe to have 2+ shots on target in France vs Belgium at 13/10 (Paddy Power)
Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe…
Jimmy’s Punt has been sporadic so apologies. Partly my fault for going to Germany and partly also my fault for having a skirmish by the troth in the local after England’s draw with Denmark.
But the column is back and to recap we have had a couple of winners which put us in the sweet, sweet green for the summer (don’t worry about the rest of the season).
With a lull in the fixtures I have had the chance to churn all my musings into some punting pointers for the round of 16.
Centre-back goalscorers, shots on targets and fouls all thrown into the mixer. Enjoy.
'The Masked Zinger'
- France vs Belgium
- Monday 1st July, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 17/20 | Draw 9/4 | Away 7/2
Considering he's the best player in the competition, it's a little hard to accept KYLIAN MBAPPE has only just scored his first Euros goal, especially considering he has 12 in 14 World Cup games, putting him within four of all-time leading scorer Miroslav Klose.
It took the masked Frenchman two tournaments, six games and 23 shots before he converted a penalty against Poland.
Now he's up and running is there any stopping him? The bookies seem to think not, as despite being two off the pace, he leads the Golden Boot market at 6/1.
Despite being substituted in France's opening game with a broken nose and missing their second fixture, Mbabbe had the second most SHOTS ON TARGET (6) of any player at the Euros, and averages the most shots per game (5).
I’ll be keeping an eye on his goalscorer price in the knockout stages but here it's the 13/10 about 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET we like.
Already advised
0.5pts Robin Le Normand to score anytime in Spain vs Georgia at 20/1 (Unibet)
3pts Harry Kane to win 2+ fouls in England vs Slovakia at evens (Sky Bet)
1pt Harry Kane to win 3+ fouls in England vs Slovakia at 100/30 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Harry Kane to win 4+ fouls in England vs Slovakia at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
Dead (ball) zinger
- Spain vs Georgia
- Sunday 30th June, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 1/5 | Draw 21/4 | Away 12/1
I can’t believe it has taken me this long to talk about set-pieces.
Of the 81 goals scored in Germany, 15% have come via dead balls but as the competition heats up, expect more.
Denmark have racked up the most set-piece xG but Spain (the second highest total) provide the interest in the round of 16 because of their opposition. Georgia top the xGA set-piece charts by some distance.
Of the four goals they have shipped, one goal has come from a set-piece (Patrick Schick’s equaliser for Czechia).
Only two of the eight opposition central defenders have failed to have at least one attempt against Georgia, averaging 1.1 shots per game between them and generating a combined xG of 0.67.
Taking Spain’s centre-backs in the shot or goalscorer market is the play here.
Dani Carvajal nodded in Spain’s only goal from a set-piece but backing ROBIN LE NORMAND TO SCORE ANYTIME at a bigger price appeals more.
He only has five domestic career goals but two of them have come this season. His one goal for La Roja also came in qualifying back in November and you'll never guess who it came against... Georgia.
Split Kane
- England vs Slovakia
- Sunday 30th June, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 4/11 | Draw 10/3 | Away 15/2
HARRY KANE wins fouls. Only three players (9) have drawn more than his eight this summer.
Backing him to win 2+, 3+ and 4+ FOULS appeals. All the lines were hit against Serbia and he drew two against Slovenia.
- CLICK HERE to back Harry Kane to win 2+ fouls with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Harry Kane to win 3+ fouls with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Harry Kane to win 4+ fouls with Sky Bet
For a little extra fun, combining Slovakia's centre-back partnership of DENIS VAVRO and MILAN SKRINIAR to commit 1+ FOULS each works well in a bet builder. If you're feeling greedy why not take the 11/1 on the pair committing 2+ FOULS each.
Of the eight centre-backs to oppose Kane at the Euros, only Denmark’s Andreas Christensen failed to commit a foul in the game, the others combined to commit a total of 11 (1.4 fouls per centre-back). Jannik Vestergaard (Denmark) and Jaka Bijol (Slovenia) were both booked against England as well.
Odds correct at 1145 BST (28/06/24)
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