Jimmy's Punt: Euro 2024 tips and predictions for the quarter-finals

Football betting tips: Euro 2024

1pt Jude Bellingham to be carded in England vs Switzerland (17:00) at 6/1 (bet365)

0.5pts Jude Bellingham and Granit Xhaka to be carded in England vs Switzerland (17:00) at 28/1 (bet365)

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England vs Switzerland

• Saturday 6th July, 20:00 - BBC One
• Home 23/20 | Draw 2/1 | Away 13/5

Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

Granted, Jude Bellingham has played in moments all summer but he has made a habit of grabbing his side by the scruff of the neck.

He did the same in a friendly against Belgium, he’s been doing it all season at the Bernabéu and did it in spectacular fashion vs Slovakia on Sunday.

Sometimes he does over-exude himself, snapping into a tackle in the 17th minute, which is why his price TO BE SHOWN A CARD again against Switzerland appeals.

• CLICK HERE to back Jude Bellingham to be carded with Sky Bet

The 6/1 with bet365 does look huge considering some firms have the same bet as short as 11/8. The card he picked up on Sunday was his 11th of the campaign for club and country (0.26 cards per 90) which is why I would have this angle priced closer to 3/1.

Bellingham gets as good as he gives, he drew three fouls on Sunday which took his tally to nine for the Euros.

Considering his opposite number will be GRANIT XHAKA this Saturday, it would be silly not to combine the pair in a double to both BE SHOWN A CARD.

• CLICK HERE to back Jude Bellingham and Granit Xhaka to be carded with Sky Bet

It should get heated in the engine room.

Already advised

3pts Joshua Kimmich 3+ tackles in Spain vs Germany (17:00) at 11/8 (bet365)

1pts Joshua Kimmich 6+ tackles in Spain vs Germany (17:00) at 21/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pts Joshua Kimmich 7+ tackles & Antonio Rudiger 4+ tackles in Spain vs Germany (17:00) at 125/1 (William Hill)

2pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime in Portugal vs France (20:00) at 9/4 (Unibet)

"Well that, was fucking dreadful."

Five bets were touted for the round of 16, zero won and they didn’t even go close.

Harry Kane was fancied to draw fouls against Slovakia. He did not win a single one.

I thought Robin Le Normand was going to cause some problems for Georgia from set pieces. He did not have a single shot and scored an own goal.

The final play took Kylian Mbappe and shots on target. Despite having five attempts against Belgium, none of them tested Koen Casteels and just like that a positive P/L has sunk into the red.

You've got to respect the game I guess. It can't go on like this, can it?

Tackling Williams

• Spain vs Germany
• Friday 5th July, 17:00 - ITV1
• Home 8/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 13/8

Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are the poster boys - I mean they literally appeared on the cover of Marca - for Spain’s new winger-orientated approach.

The pair's searing pace and skill is the catalyst for Luis de la Fuente’s approach, where his side are willing to take men on and commit bodies with trickery.

Obviously, the technical ability of Rodri and co. provides the backdrop still but against Italy this new look Spain attempted 35 take-ons with Nico Williams attempting 12.

So, what is the best way to make the most of this approach?

Despite certainly passing the eye test, Williams' stats don’t exactly match-up. He has completed nine dribbles in Germany, a success rate of 40.9%, and only drawn one foul all summer.

Cards are certainly not the way in.

His opposite numbers have been racking up the tackles though.

Croatia’s right-back completed four and attempted seven, the right-sided centre-back completed three.

Against Italy, Alessandro Bastoni (right centre-back) and Giovanni Di Lorenzo (right-back) attempted 16 tackles between them with the former completing four and the latter on seven.

Then, against Georgia, the right sided pair completed five between them.

Against Williams this summer, right-backs have averaged 4.66 tackles and right-sided centre-backs have averaged three tackles.

This has to be the way in on Friday.

JOSHUA KIMMICH will be there for Germany and he has not missed a minute of their four games this summer. Although, he has not exactly racked up the tackles, I expect him to on Friday.

The 11/8 available on bet365 for Kimmich to complete 3+ TACKLES certainly appeals, a tally all three of the right-backs opposite Williams have managed.

• CLICK HERE to back Joshua Kimmich 3+ tackles with Sky Bet

Why not get a little greedy as well.

Opposing right-backs have attempted 22 tackles trying to contain Williams (7.33 a game). Di Lorenzo completed seven and even though this is a sometimes troublesome market with lots of grey area, there is every chance Kimmich hits the high line.

Ladbrokes and Coral have Kimmich to complete 6+ TACKLES at 21/1 which is worth a small play.

If you want to be even greedier then join me in combining Kimmich to complete 6+ TACKLES and ANTONIO RUDIGER to complete 4+ TACKLES at 125/1 via William Hill’s bet builder.

Again, this clicked against Italy and could have landed against Croatia as their right-back attempted seven tackles and right-sided centre-back attempted four.

Heir to the throne

• Portugal vs France
• Friday 5th July, 20:00 - BBC One
• Home 11/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 13/10

I took great joy in watching that egomaniac, who’s spent the summer kiboshing their golden generation's chance of silverware, miss a penalty in extra-time against Slovakia and then burst into tears.

He is 39-years-old by the way.

So, for no reason whatsoever, here’s the video of Cristiano Ronaldo crying:

The washed-up frontman does cause Portugal a very real issue.

While some will say his touch to shot ratio (1 shot per 5.85 touches) highlights his predatory instinct, what it actually means is Portugal are playing with a man less and, with Roberto Martinez unwilling or unable to drop the frontman, it could create real issues against France.

Martinez was brought in as the attacking tonic for the previously pragmatic regime and this could be A Seleção’s undoing against France.

In their first game against Czechia, Martinez got it wrong tactically and personnel wise and the confused display was almost punished by their opponents.

Sitting in a low, organised block, Czechia went within seconds of a point against Portugal and I fear if they get it wrong again, France will rip them to pieces.

Les Bleus, despite their wealth of talent in all departments, are essentially anti-football under Didier Deschamps.

It has proved to be great for tournament success - as his record shows - but terrible for the neutral.

This approach should pay dividends against Portugal though as France will be more than happy for Portugal to come onto them and pick them off on the counter, an approach which will suit KYLIAN MBAPPE’s pace perfectly.

Stung by his lack of shots on target on Monday, I am ready to get hurt again.

The market is not expecting goals which is why Mbappe’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME is beefed up to an irresistible 9/4 with Unibet.

• CLICK HERE to back Kylian Mbappe to score anytime with Sky Bet

The spiel I put in the last edition of this column about France being one dimensional still applies, but factor in how Portugal might play right into their hands.

After the Frenchman’s antics on Monday, goading Jan Vertonghen after his own goal, Mbappe and Ronaldo are two insufferable peas in a pod.

God, I hope Mbappe doesn’t make a fool out of me again.

Odds correct at 1000 BST (03/07/24)

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