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Jimmy's Punt: Euro 2024 final tips and predictions for Spain vs England
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1pt Both teams to score in both halves at 22/1 (bet365)
1pt Kyle Walker 3+ tackles at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt England to win, Jordan Pickford to be shown a card at 22/1 (bet365, William Hill)
Does anyone know what to do if England actually beats Spain on Sunday?
Has anyone thought that far ahead? It is almost too scary to think about, I don’t know if I could take another heartbreak and I am definitely not prepared for the chaos if the unthinkable happens and we win the Euros.
I have three chunky punts for the action at 7/2, 20/1 and 22/1. Back them, forget about them and hopefully we’ll wake up on Monday with a few winners.
ONE MORE. 😤 pic.twitter.com/Zp0dGR4L6x
— England (@England) July 11, 2024
Go against the grain
Euros finals are rarely great spectacles. Only 14% of the last six finals have seen over 2.5 goals and based on that alone, overs should be around 6/1 on Sunday.
I fancy this clash to buck the trend and go something like the last two World Cup finals.
Argentina vs France was topsy-turvy with four goals in normal time and six in total. France’s final with Croatia in 2018 had six goals as well, so goal-laden finals are not unheard of in international football.
The thinking is, Spain’s approach is uncompromising and slick.
La Roja have completed the most passes at Euro 2024 in the final third (950), almost 100 more than any other nation. They top the charts in just about every other attacking metric; goals scored (13), expected goals (11.1) and big chances created (21).
Luis de la Fuente’s side stick to the plan and do not panic if they go a goal down, as they have done twice in their three knockout games.
If England score first, the Spanish certainly have the credentials to find a way back. If Spain score first, things could get very crazy so at 22/1, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN BOTH HALVES is my first daft punt.
There were only nine minutes in between the Netherlands opener and the England equaliser on Wednesday, five minutes between the goals against Switzerland and 16 minutes against Denmark.
Walk(er) in the park
Did you know that only one of Nico Williams' opponents has failed to complete at least three tackles this summer?
Josip Stanisic (Croatia) made four, Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Italy) made seven, Otar Kakbadze (Georgia) made three, Josh Kimmich (Germany) only managed two and Jules Kounde (France) made three.
Now guess what game I touted a certain right back to complete 3+ TACKLES in? Yes, the Germany game of course.
It is time to go back in because on Sunday KYLE WALKER is 7/2 to make three tackles, which is a huge price considering Williams' opponents have averaged 3.8 a game this summer.
Granted, Walker has only averaged 0.8 tackles per game at Euro 2024 but he has completed at least one in each of the last four games.
It is worth noting he is odds-against to complete two which I wouldn’t put anyone off but I think given his opponent, it is worth being greedy here.
By any means necessary
It would be stupid of me to go the whole tournament without tipping a result keeper card double and what better occasion than the final.
Is there a more suitable keeper then JORDAN PICKFORD?
Everton’s stopper has picked up 26 in his domestic career (cards per 90 average of 0.06) but staggeringly five have come this term (0.13 cards per 90).
Somehow, Pickford is yet to pick up a card for the Three Lions. So unlikely it doesn’t sound right. This weekend would be the perfect time to start.
Jordan Pickford is something else 😂@England | #Euro2024 pic.twitter.com/aSqwM1OXI3
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) July 1, 2024
If you are new here, the premise is simple. England take the lead. Pickford starts pulling out the dark arts to waste time and is SHOWN A CARD for said antics. England hold on to the win and we have a 22/1 winner.
Annoyingly, the best price was 25/1 with Sky Bet but that price has crumbled to 12/1, no doubt a sign of things to come as patriots pile into the England win/ Pickford card double.
Odds correct at 1100 BST (11/07/24)
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