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Jimmy's Punt: EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend
- Jimmy's Punt tips - P/L: +9.26pts
Football betting tips: EFL
Monday
2pts Wrexham or draw double chance vs Birmingham (20:00) at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Last week I was at my sister's wedding then went straight away to Mallorca. Both coincided with the international break. For any normal person it would be a good opportunity for a bit of down time but I thought it was a good time to take stock on the column.
It is amazing how much clearer you can think when you’re nursing a hangover at the High Peaks of Derbyshire or slurping a lemon top (my own creation, a larger topped with Fanta Lemon, don't knock it until you try it) on a beach in the Spanish Balearic Islands.
The upshot is it has been a good start to the season but I was wondering if it was acceptable to just keep tipping the same couple of goalscorers or card merchants every weekend?
I come to the conclusion it absolutely is…as long as the price is right.
Birmingham vs Wrexham
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 4/6 | Draw 13/5 | Away 16/5
Have Birmingham justified their freakishly short antepost price yet?
Not in my opinion.
They have smashed Sky Bet League One’s transfer budget en route to assembling one of the greatest sides the division has ever seen. On paper anyway.
But football isn’t played on paper, it’s played on grass (lol), and I am a bit underwhelmed by rookie manager Chris Davies’ start to the season.
Obviously, the Blues have been held to a higher standard but I don’t want to go near them at odds against when hosting the third tier's early frontrunners on Monday.
WREXHAM have taken the most points of any side in the top four English divisions. Granted, they were beneficiaries of being only one of six League One sides in action last weekend, but remaining unbeaten considering the five fixtures they have had is no mean feat.
Phil Parkinson’s side have comfortably beaten Reading, Peterborough and Shrewsbury in their last three games and drew at Bolton, all without conceding a goal.
Although I really was close to backing them to win the game, in the interest of making profit, siding with the visitors in the DOUBLE CHANCE market has to be the way in at 11/10.
Generational Wealth
It only needs to land once. Straight out of the mug's mantra but I mean it's not wrong… And we have gone close on this daft section down here a few times this season. A post width away from a 67/1 winner on matchday one and the width of a goal line away from a 100/1 on another day. As ever, I am only putting loose change on these selections.
- Ahmedhodzic, Wiles & Pines anytime goalscorer trixie @ 1,169/1 with Sky Bet
- Ahmedhodzic, Wiles & Pines brace trixie @ 1,696,841/1 with Sky Bet
Already advised
Friday
1pt Anel Ahmedhodzic to score anytime in Hull vs Sheff Utd (20:00) at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Anel Ahmedhodzic to score 2+ in Hull vs Sheff Utd (20:00) at 200/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday
1pt Hannibal Mejbri to be shown the first card in Leeds vs Burnley (12:30) at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt Ben Wiles to score anytime in Bolton vs Huddersfield (15:00) at 13/2 (bet365)
0.5pts Ben Wiles to score 2+ goals at 80/1 (bet365)
1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Stevenage vs Barnsley (15:00) at 12/1 (bet365)
1pt Louie Barry to score from outside the area in Crawley vs Stockport (15:00) at 14/1 (bet365)
Hull vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 11/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/10
As a Sheffield United fan, I like to think I have my finger on the pulse when it comes to S2, and this week there has been an interesting story developing regarding defender ANEL AHMEDHODZIC, or rather his dad.
Basically, Ahmedhodzic’s dad has said a lot of things about his son regarding his lack of commitment to the Blades in the press. The centre back said his old man's comments could not be further from the truth and in response, the clubs and the fans have rallied around their player which is just lovely to see.
Bladesman 🫶 pic.twitter.com/ax89IbZ9Ps
— Sheffield United (@SheffieldUnited) September 11, 2024
It got me thinking, wouldn’t the Blades' trip to Hull be a fitting time for Ahmedhodzic to open his account for the season?
At 14/1, backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME is certainly worth a go, some firms have the same bet at 6/1 and it is not difficult to see why. In his last season in the second tier, the Bosnian netted six goals (0.19 goals per 90) and will be doubly motivated this Friday.
It would also be daft not to tip THE BRACE.
Ahmedhodzic did bag one in his last Championship season and the MKM Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for the Blades who have scored at least two goals in each of their last three trips.
A brace for a centre back may be ambitious but it is not unheard of as former Sheff Utd defender John Egan managed it at this ground in 2021/22.
Leeds vs Burnley
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 7/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 18/5
We won’t see the 5/2 tipped a couple of weeks ago for a HANNIBAL MEJBRI card again this season. Take the money and run. And yet here he is, featuring in the column again.
The interesting thing about the midfielder's cynical card record is the time he receives cautions.
Although he didn’t receive THE FIRST CARD of the game in his Burnley debut against Blackburn, Hannibal did get booked in the 42nd minute.
- 25 starts
- 12 cards
- 9 first half cards
- 7 first cards of the game
The midfielder has been carded in 48% of his domestic starts and picked up the first card of the game 28% of the time.
We have had our fill with the card bet and with Josh Laurent operating at the base of the Clarets midfield, Hannibal, alongside Josh Brownhill, is playing more advanced which is all the more reason to swerve the anytime card bet.
However, given Hannibal’s tendency to pick up early cards, backing him to be the FIRST PLAYER BOOKED at Elland Road appeals. Based on his record, 11/4 could be considered value in this market, yet 8/1 is available.
As was the case in the derby on debut, the size of the occasion also aids this bet as the two pre-season title favourites go head-to-head.
Bolton vs Huddersfield
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 21/10
Price permitting, I wanted to give this angle eight games because all the signs pointed towards BEN WILES making a quick start to the season as he usually does in Sky Bet League One.
He has scored the majority of his goals in the third tier and the majority of those goals have come before spooky season takes hold.
The midfielder appears to have settled in North Yorkshire and is playing for a side which look every bit a top six contender under Michael Duff.
Wiles tops the Terriers goalscoring charts (2 in 4 apps) and is amongst their sharpest shooters. He has played all bar 11 minutes in the league and most crucially of all his prices TO SCORE ANYTIME and 2+ GOALS have held so enjoy it while you can.
Crawley vs Stockport
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 3/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/10
It's three goals in four appearances for LOUIS BARRY in League One, with all three goals from deep down town, so backing him to SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX is the bet (again) this Saturday.
The man formerly on Barcelona’s books only scores screamers apparently, well that’s all he has done this season.
Barry’s three strikes have had a combined xG of 0.19 which underpins his quality and at the 14/1 available, it is worth a go this weekend.
Stevenage vs Barnsley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 5/4
There are only so many times I can say DONOVAN PINES is a great price TO SCORE ANYTIME. See here, here and here.
The big man has already done the business for us and I genuinely believe he could hit double figures for the season if he stays out of the treatment room.
Pines didn’t have an attempt against Bristol Rovers but defenders Marc Roberts and Mael De Gevigney both managed one each from set pieces, proving the Reds dead-ball threat.
Although Stevenage are yet to concede from such situations this term, Darrell Clarke’s Barnsley side boast plenty of physicality as well as quality in delivery, so there is every chance Pines grabs his fifth goal in 11 appearances.
Odds correct at 1330 BST (12/09/2024)
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