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Jimmy's Punt: EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend
- Jimmy's Punt tips - Staked 31.5pts | Returned 41pts | P/L: +9.5pts | ROI: 30%
Football betting tips: EFL
League One
1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Barnsley vs Bristol Rovers at 10/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Donovan Pines to score 2+ goals at 125/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
League Two
2pts Barrow to beat Swindon at 10/11 (General)
2pts Billy Sharp to score anytime in Doncaster vs Gillingham at 13/8 (bet365)
*All games kick off at 3pm on Saturday
I thought it was going to be a red letter day for the column last Saturday.
I'd tipped a LOT of bets, but luck was on our side and it paid dividends.
Hannibal Mejbri was carded early, Blackburn got a result at Turf Moor, Donovan Pines scored within 15 minutes at Crawley, Wigan were pushing Birmingham close at St Andrew's, oh and This Weeks Acca won.
I was out for dinner at the time but a lot of my Saturday afternoon was spent counting the impending winnings and plotting my escape from the country, not that I was getting carried away…
It wasn't quiet generational wealth but I'd love more of the same this weekend. Please.
The first international break of the season has robbed us of fixtures from the top two tiers fixtures, the majority of the third and some of the fourth but there is still plenty to go at.
Barnsley vs Bristol Rovers
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 16/5
It only took DONOVAN PINES 12 minutes to net the opener at Crawley last Saturday and secure the column at 10/1 winner.
I probably should take the money and run, but as long as the price sticks around, I am going to go back in on the centre back.
I said it the first time he featured here, Pines might be a generational talent from set pieces.
29'. Pines rises highest to give the Reds the lead 🇺🇸
— Barnsley FC (@BarnsleyFC) August 31, 2024
🔴 0-2🩶 | #CRABAR pic.twitter.com/6aGWWZUBMX
It is his second goal in four starts this season and his fourth goal in seven starts in a Barnsley shirt. This is a goals per 90 average of 0.54 which in the simplest terms, technically, makes anything evens or above value.
Obviously, there are other factors at play here but the fact one of the worst sides at defending set-pieces in Sky Bet League One are in town this weekend.
League One xGA from set piece since beginning of last season:
- Exeter - 20.04
- BRISTOL ROVERS - 19.35
- Cheltenham - 18.28
- Northampton Town - 18.19
Staggeringly, 45% of the 72 shots Bristol Rovers have conceded this season have come from dead ball situations (free kicks, corners, throw-ins).
Kyle Wootton (Stockport) scored from a corner with centre back Fraser Horsfall grabbing the assist. Rotherham central defender Jamie McCart rattled the woodwork and Mark McGuinness (then of Cardiff, now at Luton) scored with one of his four shots directly from corners in the cup.
Considering the Gas’ poor set piece form, both Pines’ ANYTIME GOALSCORER and 2+ GOALS prices appeal at Oakwell this weekend.
Barrow vs Swindon
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/4
BARROW have made their best ever start to a football league campaign in the club's history.
Stopper Paul Farman has played a major part with three clean sheets and only one goal conceded. He was the penalty hero against League One Derby in the Carabao Cup as well last Tuesday.
Huddersfield loanee Neo Eccleston also deserves a lot of credit. The full back was the match winner at Harrogate last weekend and won the clubs in house man of the match award for the second time in as many games.
Come for the goal, stay for the celebration! 🤪
— Barrow AFC (@BarrowAFC) September 1, 2024
Watch the rest of yesterday's highlights here ⬇️
📺 👉 https://t.co/4dPzW50u3K#WeAreBarrow pic.twitter.com/JJ03tOEBZu
Manager Stephen Clemence has done an excellent job, as only Walsall (1.82) have conceded fewer xGA than Barrow (2.14) in League Two, but no side has conceded fewer goals.
The Bluebirds live in the realms of fine margins, an xGD total of +0.7 shows as much, but they should have little to worry about against Swindon this weekend.
This visitors are one of four sides in Sky Bet League Two yet to win a game and only two sides have racked up less xGF (1.8) than the Robins. They are struggling.
Last season, Swindon picked up the fewest points on the road in the division and although they have had a change in the dugout since, there is little to suggest their away form has improved.
At a shade of odds on, backing Barrow TO WIN appeals.
Doncaster vs Gillingham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 29/10
BILLY SHARP scores goals.
The veteran already has three to his name in all competitions this campaign, impressive considering he has only played 252 minutes (which is more than a goal per 90).
League Two goals per 90
- David McGoldrick (Notts County) - 1.36
- Jordan Davies (Grimsby Town) - 1.35
- Billy Sharp (Doncaster) - 1.10
It shouldn’t come as a surprise. He has over 250 goals to his name, he has scored in all top four divisions in England and netted six times in 12 games for LA Galaxy.
Sharp relishes this big occasion. He's a spiky character and he certainly has not mellowed with age, and this clash in South Yorkshire is a big one so it should bring the best out of him.
Doncaster take on Gillingham, two of the early frontrunners for the League Two title. The visitors currently top the table, a point ahead of Donny, but it is Grant McCann’s side that lead the betting at 9/2, the Gills are 13/2.
At 13/8, Sharp’s price to SCORE ANYTIME appeals.
Generational wealth
I would be lying if I said I hadn’t had some loose change on a Donovan Pines hat-trick, just in case. No, he hasn’t even scored a brace before but I guess that's why the odds are massive.
A Pines treble is 1,000/1 with Betfred and 500/1 with Sky Bet, bet365, Betfair, Power Power and William Hill and both prices are worth their weight in loose change.
- Pines hat-trick @ 1,000/1 with Betfred or CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Odds correct at 1120 BST (04/09/2024)
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