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Jimmy's Punt: EFL tips, predictions and best bets for this weekend
- Jimmy's Punt tips - Staked 18.5pts | Returned 19.0pts | P/L: +0.5pts | ROI: 2.7%
Football betting tips: Championship & League One
Saturday (12:30)
2pts Blackburn or Draw (double chance) vs Burnley at evens (General)
2pts Hannibal Mejbri to be shown a card in Burnley vs Blackburn at 5/2 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
1pts Hannibal Mejbri to be shown the first card at 11/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
0.5pts Hannibal Mejbri to be sent off at 50/1 (William Hill)
1pt Ben Wiles to score anytime in Rotherham vs Huddersfield at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Wiles to score 2+ goals at 100/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday (15:00)
2pts Lewis Koumas to score anytime in Plymouth vs Stoke at 11/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Lewis Koumas to score 2+ at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
0.5pts Lewis Koumas to score a hat-trick at 100/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Donovan Pines to score anytime in Crawley vs Barnsley at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt Wigan to beat Birmingham at 13/2 (General)
1pt Louie Barry to score from outside the box in Mansfield vs Stockport at 16/1 (bet365)
I know what you are thinking, that is an absurd amount of bets.
Twelve in total, odds up to 100/1, seven at 10/1 or over, and 13pts staked.
Granted, I may have gone a bit 'Punt' happy, especially considering none of my seven picks last weekend went close, but you gotta roll with the punches in this game and I'll be a season ticket holder at Hillsborough before I leave what I perceive to be valuable punts out of the staking plan because I am scared of losing in the short term.
Three of the bets are column regulars and as long as the price is big enough, they are going in for the foreseeable.
It is also worth noting most picks (8) are directly related to one another. You know the drill. If I am tipping someone to score anytime, I am probably tipping them to bag a brace and a hattrick just in case…
So, technically, I only actually have seven angles this weekend, the same as last weekend, and it can’t get any worse, can it?
Burnley vs Blackburn
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 4/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 3/1
I think it was the great Ghandi who said never back the favourite in the early kick off.
So, can you take the outsider then?
What about if it is also a derby? 'El Lanclasico'.
Things are stacking up against Burnley, especially after the start they made to the season.
The Clarets hired a proven manager for the level, Scott Parker, and took maximum points from their opening two games, scoring nine goals in the process and briefly moving into the market leaders for the title.
Amongst those results, there was a mass exodus. Wilson Odobert (Spurs), Sander Berge (Fulham), Dara O’Shea (Ipswich), Armeen Al-Dakhil (Stuttgart), Anass Zaroury (Lens), Scott Twine (Bristol City), Bailey Peacock-Farrell (Birmingham) and Zeki Amdouni (Benfica) all gone.
Suddenly, a very healthy squad lacks depth and the manager is turning a little spikey.
It culminated with a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland, now the Clarets are out to 4/1 for the Sky Bet Championship title and I think things might go from bad to worse this weekend.
Burnley had FOURTEEN players unavailable against Sunderland.
— Second Tier podcast (@secondtierpod) August 25, 2024
Scott Parker says he only wants players who want to be at Burnley.
What is happening at Turf Moor?? 😳😳 pic.twitter.com/39NaDla0hf
Do BLACKBURN know they are supposed to be struggling?
Off the field financial difficulties and the loss of Sammie Szmodics, the second tier's top goalscorer last term, has not stopped John Eustace’s side making an unbeaten start to the campaign.
Rovers haven’t got a result against their local rivals in over a decade and last beat them 14 years ago, but head-to-head records count for absolutely nothing, and I think there's enough juice in their price in the DOUBLE CHANCE market.
Because Mejbri 🎶 pic.twitter.com/uGP4uy73ZB
— Burnley FC (@BurnleyOfficial) August 28, 2024
Considering the occasion, it would be grossly negligible of me not to tip a player card.
HANNIBAL MEJBRI has to be included in the staking plan, in fact, the biggest gamble of this pick is if he will play or not having signed on Wednesday, although the fact he was immediately thrown into the starting XI against Wolves in midweek has to be seen as a positive on that front.
The former Manchester United man has picked up 15 cards in a career spanning only 52 appearances.
But, of the 15 cards he picked up, 11 came in the 24 games he started. Of those 11 cards he picked up in games he started, eight came in the first half (average card time of the 39th minute) and he was CARDED FIRST first on seven occasions.
To summarise, Hannibal has been SHOWN A CARD in 46% of the domestic games he has started and picked up THE FIRST BOOKING of the game in 29% of those starts.
- CLICK HERE to back Hannibal Mejbri to be shown a card with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Hannibal Mejbri to be shown the first card with Sky Bet
And, just incase, we'll also back the hot-head TO BE SENT OFF at 50/1. This is a derby, if the game goes the way I think then Burnley could be very frustrated which could lead to the Tunisian losing his head.
Rotherham vs Huddersfield
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports+
- Home 17/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 11/8
"You can't keep tipping BEN WILES every week."
Yes I can.
And I will as long as the price sticks around.
This one has an added bit of narrative as the South Yorkshire born midfielder faces his boyhood club and former employers Rotherham.
Wiles has already netted twice this term (0.70 goals per 90), he is also posting 0.34 xG per 90, averaging over three shots a game and has hit the target three times.
The 8/1 about him SCORING ANYTIME is almost the biggest price he has been this term, the 100/1 for him to SCORE 2+ is as big as it has been and the fact he returns to the New York Stadium only sweetens the deal.
Plymouth vs Stoke
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 21/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/10
We’re getting old. Jason Koumas’ son, LEWIS KOUMAS is tearing it up for Stoke.
You might remember the Liverpool loanee scoring the opening goal last season at Anfield in the FA Cup fifth round during the Reds 3-0 win over Southampton. I think Jurgen Klopp fielded 11 kids to prove a point about the fixture schedule. The nobhead.
A first start and a first goal for Lewis Koumas 👏
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) February 28, 2024
What a moment for the 18-year-old!#EmiratesFACup pic.twitter.com/PSueI6vJkj
Anyway, Koumas is at Stoke now and he netted in his first league start last weekend, then scored and set up another in 61 minutes of Carabao Cup action at the Riverside on Tuesday.
Koumas for Stoke:
- 4 appearances
- 11 shots
- 4 shots on target
- 2 goals
- 1 assist
- 2.32 xG
Koumas should get chances against Plymouth. Wayne Rooney’s side are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league (6 conceded) and have shipped the most xGA of any side in the Championship (7.6).
His prices TO SCORE ANYTIME, fire 2+ GOALS and back a HAT-TRICK all appeal.
Birmingham vs Wigan
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 10/3 | Away 21/4
The time is now to get against Birmingham.
Chris Davies only made two changes from the side which beat Leyton Orient on Saturday for the cup clash with Fulham on Tuesday. Bailey Peacock-Farrell dropped a clanger at Orient and was replaced by Ryan Allsop in between the sticks and Willum Willumsson came in at centre attacking midfield.
I am not sure if Davies wanted to give his XI more minutes to gel or if he wanted to prove his side can go toe-to-toe with the big boys, or both, but his side certainly gave Fulham a run for their money.
The Blues had twice as many shots and shots on target as Fulham, with the game settled by the difference in finishing ability.
It could leave Birmingham a little fatigued ahead of Saturday’s clash with Wigan, which is worrying considering they haven't been overly convincing yet, not to the standard of short-priced title favourites.
They had two Orient errors to thank for the goals on Saturday and are overperforming their xG by 2.1.
WIGAN have not made a great start. They scored their first league goal of the season (an own goal) and picked up their first points against Crawley last weekend.
Shaun Maloney’s side were specialists at picking up points against the big boys last term, though, especially away from home.
Against the top half (12 games), the Tics took 22 points from the 36 on offer, winning seven, and four of those wins came against the top four (vs Portsmouth, Derby, Bolton and Peterborough).
At 13/2, backing the visitors TO WIN is worth a go.
Crawley vs Barnsley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 15/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/10
Last season, Crawley were extremely lucky to only concede eight times from set pieces according to the underlying data.
They shipped an xGA of 16.70, and based on this alone, they could have conceded twice as many goals.
Brighton’s Adam Webster thumped in a header against Town in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, Harry Smith (Swindon) also netted from a corner recently and 42% of Blackpool’s 19 shots came via dead ball situations on game day one.
It all bodes well for Barnsley’s chances of netting from a set piece in their trip to Broadfield Stadium this weekend and DONOVAN PINES looks their biggest threat of SCORING ANYTIME.
Backing the American centre back is going to pay off eventually. He scored against Wigan in the Cup, taking his Reds tally to three goals in just six starts.
Taking it with bet365, we get the added security of a void bet if Pines does not start which is plausible given he was dropped for last weekend's game with Northampton.
Mansfield vs Stockport
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 6/4
LOUIE BARRY only scores screamers.
None of his three goals this term have come from inside the box and between them they had a combined xG of 0.19. The goal on opening weekend had an xG of 0.01, if you are into that sort of thing.
The former Barcelona man is 16/1 to SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX again this weekend which is simply too large.
This bet has clicked in each of Stockport’s three league games so far this season, which is obviously unsustainable, but County have 17 games left before Christmas and I think he is going to find the net from range at least once more before Father Christmas’ big day.
Mansfield also top League One's charts for shots conceded from outside the box, with 22 in three matches coming from deep down town (38%) and two of the eight goals the Stags have conceded have come from range as well.
Generational Wealth
I don’t see any harm in combining some of these punts with small stakes in case we do have a red letter day on Saturday. There is some rhyme and reason to the combinations, combining the goalscorers for example, but it is mainly just for a bit of fun.
- Hannibal 1st card, Barry to score from outside the box @ 131/1 with Sky Bet
- Koumas to score a brace, Pines and Wiles to score anytime TRIXIE @ 1,349/1 with Sky Bet
- Wiles brace and Koumas hat-trick @ 10,200/1 with Sky Bet
- Hannibal to be carded, Wigan to win, Barry to score from outside the box and Wiles, Pines and Koumas all to score anytime @ 64,968/1 with Sky Bet
Odds correct at 1000 BST (30/08/2024)
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