- Jimmy's Punt: Staked: 294.4pts | Returned: 300.18pts | P/L: +5.78pts | ROI: 2%
Football betting tips: Weekend's best bets
Saturday
0.5pts Tyrone Mings to score anytime in Southampton vs Aston Villa (15:00) at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Axel Disasi to score anytime in Southampton vs Aston Villa (15:00) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Oxford +1.0 Asian Handicap vs Sheff Wed at 7/10 (bet365)
0.5pts Michal Helik to score anytime in Oxford vs Sheff Wed (15:00) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Matthew Pearson to score anytime in Burton vs Huddersfield (15:00) at 15/2 (bet365)
Punts for the column usually come easily.
We’re nearly at the end of the season, you know where you stand with most teams down the English pyramid, you know roughly what prices to expect and know when somethings too big.
That was not the case this weekend.
I stared at the slate on Wednesday waiting for something to pop up. Nothing. Same issue Thursday. Same on Friday.
But then I remembered an old friend of mine - goalscoring centre backs, and the bets started to flow.
This weekend we have been blessed with some glaring set piece mis-matches and with it come some hefty goalscorer prices.
I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing a daft trixie (I have) in what I have crudely dubbed ‘centre back goalscorer weekend’.
Southampton vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 8/15
Southampton are down, their manager has gone but there are still seven games to go.
What now?
Play for pride I guess and prepare for a return to the Championship.
Saints have many issues, but set piece defending has been a consistent area of weakness.
No side has conceded more goals (17) or a higher xGA via dead balls in the Premier League this term.
Levi Colwill, Jack Hinshelwood and Travoh Chalobah have all netted against the Saints since Christmas and another defender could join the list on Saturday when Aston Villa head to the South coast.
The Villans are the joint-best set piece side with 13 goals scored and an xG of 13.32 generated.
With the return leg of their Champions League quarter-finals on the horizon, TYRONE MINGS and AXEL DISASI are expected to be rotated into central defence and both of their prices TO SCORE ANYTIME appeal.
- CLICK HERE to back Tyrone Mings to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Axel Disasi to score anytime with Sky Bet
Mings has only scored nine domestic goals in his career (0.04 per 90) but has averaged 0.50 shots per 90 this term and racked up an xG of 0.52. So, he has at least been knocking on the door.
Disasi has notched up 0.10 xG across six appearances for Villa but has a Premier League goals per 90 average of 0.08 across two seasons, netting for Chelsea earlier in the season, against Southampton at St. Mary's believe it or not.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Oxford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/13 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/4
Gary Rowett took the reins at OXFORD on Boxing Day and got off to a blistering start, winning three on the spin and going nine unbeaten in the league.
If the season started when Rowett took charge (I know it didn't), Oxford would be in ninth averaging 1.35 points per game.
They’ve curtailed since though, winning two of the following 11 games but they rarely get blown out of the water.
Across Rowett's 20 game tenure, they have lost by two or more goals three times (Portsmouth, West Brom and QPR).
On Saturday they play Sheffield Wednesday, the second worst home team in the Championship (W5 D7 L8).
The Owls cannot catch a break at the minute. They squandered a two goal lead at Blackburn in midweek, they are winless in four, have nothing to play for and it looks like their highly regarded manager Danny Rohl is bound for pastures new at the end of the season.
All this is happening against the backdrop of Dejphon Chansiri’s tyranny.
Put simply, at 4/6 they are too short to win against the U’s. That said, I am airing on the side of caution and taking the visitors +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP because Oxford’s away games are fine margin. This way we get the added security of stakes back if Wednesday win by one goal.
This is also a mouth-watering set-piece mismatch.
Corners, free kicks and long throw-ins have been a feature of Rowett's stint, Oxford have scored the second most goals in the division via dead balls (15) across the season. The Owls have conceded the joint-most (19).
MICHAL HELIK is the visitor's biggest threat. Helik has five goals for the season, two in his last five league appearances and at 18/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a punt.
Burton vs Huddersfield
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/1 | Draw 11/5 | Away 23/20
Finally, there’s another set piece mismatch in League One.
Huddersfield’s promotion push may have frittered away but they remain as deadly as ever from dead balls.
The Terriers have scored 20 times from them (3rd most) and their defence boasts one of the most lethal set piece threats in the English pyramid: MATTHEW PEARSON.
Pearson has netted five goals this term (0.25 goals per 90), eclipsing last season's tally, taking him to 43 league goals across his career (0.10 goals per 90).
Saturday’s opponents Burton have improved under Gary Bowyer but they remain one of the poorer sides in the third tier at defending dead balls.
Across their last six league games, opposition centre backs are averaging 0.86 shots per game against the Brewers.
Pearson has had nine shots across his last nine appearances and netted once, at 17/2 his price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals.
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (11/04/25)
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