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Jimmy's Punt: EFL and FA Cup tips, predictions and best bets for November 29-December 1
- Jimmy’s Punt: Staked 118pts | Returned 103.66 | P/L -14.34pts | ROI -12.5%
Football betting tips: EFL and FA Cup
Friday
0.5pt Declan Howe to score anytime in Harrogate vs Gainsborough (19:45) at 15/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Jobe Bellingham and Vini Souza to be carded in Sheffield United vs Sunderland (20:00) at 18/1 (bet365)
Saturday
1pt James Norwood to score anytime in Leyton Orient vs Oldham (15:00) at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt James Norwood to score 2+ goals at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Fraser Horsfall to score anytime in Stockport vs Brackley (15:00) at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
0.5pt Fraser Horsfall to score 2+ goals at 125/1 (William Hill)
*Sunday's tips to follow
We’re in a sticky patch.
The losing streak now stands at three columns and 24 picks and the P/L has plummeted below -10pts.
Morgan Whittaker didn’t turn up Friday evening, Burnley did Burnley things and won when they were supposed to lose at Bristol City and Shilow Tracey clearly had his card marked in Crewe’s draw at Port Vale on Monday.
I can live with all of these, the toughest beat came on Saturday afternoon.
I was out at the time and blissfully unaware how close Fraser Horsfall had gone in Stockport’s win over Burton.
On our match centre, it defines his effort as a ‘great’ chance (0.24 xG). I just wish he could’ve kept his volley down, preferably smashing into the back of the net for a 20/1 winner. The column goes back into the green and we go into this weekend with a spring in our step.
Just gotta keep plugging away I guess, the clichéd stick to the process and what not.
Harrogate vs Gainsborough
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
- TV: BBC Two
- Home 1/3 | Draw 7/2 | Away 13/2
DECLAN HOWE is part of a cluster of players on two goals in the FA Cup chasing the illustrious Mitre Golden Ball award (top scorer in the FA Cup).
Gainsborough’s frontman spoke of his desire to add to that tally and help his side get to the third round on Friday, although League Two’s Harrogate might have something to say about that.
Touted by many to struggle this season, Simon Weaver’s side are starting to gather momentum, winning their last two games in the league and beating Wrexham in the first round of this competition, much to the dismay of the television people.
Gainsborough should not be taken lightly though, they have shown resilience to reach this round coming from behind to beat Darlington in qualifying and then from three goals down against Hednesford in the last round.
Although victory on Friday is unlikely, they could certainly bloody the Sulphurites' nose.
Frontman Howe has netted 18 times in all competitions this term and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a poke Friday evening.
Sunderland vs Sheffield United
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home evens | Draw 9/4 | Away 11/4
From the FA Cup to the Sky Bet Championship. We're spoilt on Friday night, with two matches live on the telly under the lights. This one sees second-placed Sheffield United host third-placed Sunderland and it should be a cracker.
I was immediately drawn to the cards markets.
The Blades have one of the poorest disciplinary records in the division (39Y 1R). Sunderland aren’t quite as prolific but their three games against the big boys (Burnley, Leeds, Middlesbrough) have seen 19 cards flashed.
A tenacious battle in the middle of the park should be expected.
JOBE BELLINGHAM’s price TO BE CARDED stands out for the visitors. Four of his five have come on the road this term, the other was against Leeds.
He’ll be pitting his whits against Sydie Peck and VINI SOUZA. The Brazilian has notched up six cards already this term, he averages 3.8 tackles and 2.1 fouls per game (that's the most in the league).
Although both players are big enough to take as singles, I’ll be playing the double at 18/1. It’s as short as 5/1 elsewhere.
Leyton Orient vs Oldham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 15/4
I saw a lot of JAMES NORWOOD live in the flesh at Barnsley.
A bullish workhorse with an eye for goal, he was adored by the Oakwell faithful. He always looked just as likely to score as he was to be booked, underpinned by his tally of 11 goals and 10 cards in South Yorkshire (22/23).
He was probably good enough to be the Reds' starting number nine in the third tier which is why it’s incredible he is plying his trade in the National League.
It is also no surprise to see he’s bagged 23 goals in one and a bit seasons at Oldham en route to his recent National League Player of the Year accolade, he has also notched up 12 cards.
Box Office.
Congratulations to @OfficialOAFC’s James Norwood.
— BBC Sport Manchester (@BBCRMsport) November 25, 2024
He’s won the first award of the night at the @NWFAwards. #OAFC #NWFA2024 pic.twitter.com/gnczQGjjNo
In his last six appearances, he has scored six and been carded three times, with the double (goal, card) clicking twice.
With it being a 3pm kick off, I doubt cards will be priced but keep your eyes peeled just in case. His price TO SCORE ANYTIME and 2+ GOALS are worth a go regardless.
Stockport vs Brackley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/7 | Draw 11/2 | Away 12/1
Sod's law dictates FRASER HORSFALL will score the game after he was unsuccessful tipped. Thems the rules.
All will be forgiven if he does find the net against Brackley on Saturday but sod's law isn’t the only reason he is getting tipped TO SCORE ANYTIME this weekend.
Obviously I'll also be taking him TO SCORE 2+ for good measure.
Above all, he is 10/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and William Hill. For context, Betfair and Paddy Power have gone 7/2 and bet365 have gone 4/1.
Those prices are criminally short for a centre-back to score. He has a goals per 90 average of 0.09 which even makes the 10/1 a touch tight at face value, that is without context though.
Horsfall has scored twice this term and both have come in his last five appearances. He netted the opener in Stockport's 2-1 win over Forest Green in the last round then found the net against Bolton.
Prior to the clash with Forest Green, Horsfall had taken nine shots in 12 appearances and hit the target three times. In the five games since, he’s had 11 shots and hit the target five times.
I couldn’t tell you the reason for the increase. After going close against Burton though, I am hoping this isn't just a flash in the pan.
Odds correct at 1445 GMT (28/11/24)
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