Football betting tips: FA Cup
Thursday 19:00
0.5pt Sam McCallum to score in Sheffield United vs Cardiff at 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
Thursday 19:45
2pts Watford-Draw double chance vs Fulham at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
*More bets to appear here
Everyone loves a longshot but at what cost?
The last few weeks, I have been on the right side of several chunkily priced outsiders but have nothing to show for it because of my love for keeper cards. Manchester United at Anfield the most recent example, I could smell an upset but we didn’t profit.
Over the course of the season we have had a keeper card-double chance/result combination click just once, yet since Christmas Day we have been on the right side of six of eight outsiders picking up results at nice odds (Fulham at Chelsea, Everton at Man City, Man Utd at Liverpool, West Brom at Sheffield United and Hull at Blackburn are some examples).
Time to re-think, I think.
Last weekend, I thought I’d cracked it by putting more weight on the referee appointments but didn’t account for something major: what if the goalkeepers don’t get a chance to waste time?
Even if the referee is willing, the game is perfectly poised and the keeper is chomping at the bit to run down the clock, the ball might not go out for a goal kick.
How do we fix it? Simple, rein it back just a little bit. Outsiders, when suitable, welcome to the staking plan. Sure, the keeper card combinations are going to stay but they’re no longer going to be the piece de resistance, but more of an amuse-bouche.
I am hungry for profit and for too long good picks have been foiled by sweet, sweet keeper cards.
What a weekend to take on some short-priced favourites as well: FA Cup third round.
Sheffield United vs Cardiff
- Kick-off time: 19:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: BBC Wales
- Home 4/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 10/3
Sheffield United are thin on the ground and Chris Wilder is not usually one to play the big hitters in the FA Cup third round.
You could certainly make a case for Cardiff at 100/30 but instead I have been suckered in by the 16/1 about SAM MCCALLUM TO SCORE ANYTIME.
A full-back by trade, he has often featured for the Blades from the bench in more advanced positions this term and with Harry Boyes and Rhys Norrington-Davies also options at left-back, there is every chance McCallum is utilised higher up the pitch on Thursday.
McCallum is by no means a goalscorer with eight in 177 appearances but he has netted once this term for the Blades in just 535 domestic minutes.
More importantly, Cardiff have kept only five clean sheets in 27 games, none in their last 13, and the majority of the shots they concede come from their right hand-side.
As with any bet, this is a price play. This angle is as short as 8/1 with some firms but I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off the 14/1 available generally.
Fulham vs Watford
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Thursday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 17/4 | Away 17/2
Taking over in March 2024, Tom Cleverly has only had this season's Carabao Cup clash at the Etihad to show us his metal in the cup competitions.
I’m not one to put too much weight on one fixture, or maybe I am...
Cleverly did not rotate much against Manchester City, so we can only assume he is a cup enthusiast. What is more, his WATFORD side were robbed of a result. City, who were good at the time, won 2-1 on the night but Kwadwo Baah had an equaliser wrongfully ruled out in my opinion.
As I say, it would be flimsy to base an angle purely off one game but Fulham’s cup record under Marco Silva is encouraging for us because he likes to rotate.
They have been known to make hard work of lower league opposition. In the FA Cup third round last season, Fulham narrowly beat Championship basement boys Rotherham 1-0 in a game they went off 2/11 to win.
In the EFL Cup this term, Preston knocked them out in the second round after 31 penalties and in 2022/23, League Two Crawley beat them 2-0.
All things considered, I think it is easier to make a case for the Championship outsiders Watford, especially at the prices.
Backing the visitors WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE appeals.
I really had to resist the urge to split a 2pt stake across a draw and away win but the double chance is simply the superior value.
Fulham have drawn 45% of their fixtures this term, the fifth highest percentage in England’s top four divisions, six of which coming across their last eight games.
Odds correct at 2200 GMT (07/01/25)
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