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Jesse Marsch: Have Leeds replaced Marcelo Bielsa with the right man?
You wouldn't want to be the man to replace Marcelo Bielsa. Irreplaceable in the hearts of Leeds United supporters.
Such is the impact of the former Argentina and Chile coach that the term 'The Widows of Bielsa' has been used for some of his more fanatical disciples. For others, perhaps 'The Lost Boys' would be more apt: Bielsa's brand of football creates a version of Neverland, led by its own Peter Pan and a desire among those present never to leave.
And yet he has now left Elland Road, and this is the reality Jesse Marsch is faced with.
The 48-year-old American's first crack at the Premier League sees him given the dual task of keeping Leeds, just two points above the relegation zone with 12 games to go, in the top flight while filling the enormous void left by the departure of his predecessor.
But can he do it?
Jesse Marsch's career so far
Marsch started his coaching career with the Montreal Impact but he's better known for his work throughout the Red Bull group.
Taking over at New York Red Bulls for the 2015 season, he led them to the Supporters' Shield (regular season winners) and scooped Major League Soccer's Coach of the Year accolade.
He was a part of their 2018 success - winning the same trophy - but departed that same July. He still holds the record for most games managed and most games won in the Red Bulls' history.
Following a year working as Ralf Rangnick's assistant at RB Leipzig, he became head coach of Salzburg in the summer of 2019, delivering domestic doubles in both his campaigns with the club, winning the Austrian Bundesliga by 12 points on both occasions.
Salzburg's energetic style of play caught the eye of many - particularly due to their performances in Europe's top club competitions.
They cruised through the group stage of the 2018/19 Europa League - collecting a maximum 18 points with a +11 goal difference - before being knocked out in the round of 16 by Napoli in a 4-3 aggregate defeat.
The 2019/20 Champions League campaign placed them in a tough group among Liverpool and Napoli where they finished in an expected third place. However, they established themselves as a highly-entertaining side, beating Genk 6-2 and 4-1 while also playing out a memorable 4-3 defeat at Anfield.
It earned Marsch a move to the number one club in Red Bull's stable, but that didn't go as planned.
What went wrong at Leipzig?
After Leipzig lost Julian Nagelsmann to Bayern Munich in the summer of 2021, Marsch was chosen as successor.
He lasted just 14 league matches before being sacked with the club 11th in the Bundesliga and unable to qualify for the Champions League knockout stage ahead of their final group game.
"The decision is the result of an in-depth analysis and intensive discussions," read a club statement.
The graph below is Leipzig's rolling expected goals (xG) process from the beginning of the Nagelsmann era to now. Basically, the more blue on show the better.
While defensively they dropped off, Marsch's Leipzig were still performing well in attack and were unlucky not to have more points when he left.
Infogol's performance-based xG table had them just outside the top six, considerably higher than their actual 11th place.
The fact Leipzig now sit fourth in the Bundesliga should not simply be taken as evidence to justify Marsch's sacking, especially considering he had inherited a squad built in the possession-based style of Nagelsmann - more focused on the technical ability needed for the 'Nagelsmann Way' than the high energy 'Red Bull Way'.
Add in the departure of France centre-back Dayot Upamecano and club captain Marcel Sabitzer that summer, and it was hardly a situation made for a straightforward transition.
The phrase wir passen nicht zusammen works here: it just didn't fit. At any other time, it probably would have.
What is the 'Red Bull Way'?
It's a phrase we hear a lot, but what exactly is the 'Red Bull Way'?
Spoiler alert: energy drink-owned clubs want to play high-energy football.
Active in and out of possession, with speed utilised to try and get the ball up the pitch as quickly as possible. The emphasis is on vertical play - that doesn't mean hopelessly hitting it forward though.
Without the ball they look to win it back further up the pitch and with it they aim to break beyond the opposition defence. In a scenario where the opponent has possession in their own half, 'Red Bull FC' would want to win it back and have done something productive within 20 or so seconds.
…but does it suit Leeds?
Should Marsch continue to operate the way he did as part of the Red Bull group, the likelihood is that Leeds will play something close to a 4-2-2-2, which could become 4-4-2 or 4-3-2-1 at times.
A back three is also a possibility given that's what we saw at both Leipzig and Salzburg, which is basically a way of me saying that the formation is flexible - the tactical style and fundamentals are more important.
The bonus of Marsch taking over from Bielsa is that multiple players have adapted to more than one position, but one big change we could see is the addition of a second striker, something Bielsa rarely opted for.
Will Leeds press as much under Marsch?
Bielsa's demand for a pressing style is an advantage as it won't mean radical change - although it will be different.
Leeds' four-season PPDA (passes per defensive action) average under Bielsa was 8.07. Marsch's four-year average across his New York and Salzburg spells was 7.12. United are already accustomed to playing with an aggressive approach out of possession.
A move away from full man-to-man marking and a system looking at traps and triggers higher up the pitch is likely.
What is PPDA (passes per defensive action)?
- Using the top 60% of the pitch - a calculation of all opponent passes and divide them by the sum of defensive actions such as fouls, interceptions, defensive duels won and sliding tackles. The lower the number, the more a team presses.
Arguably, a 4-2-2-2 formation could suit this Leeds squad better, both in the short and long term, with an example being Raphinha as an effective inside forward with the ability to operate as a number 10 when required, while Daniel James and Jack Harrison provide pace to get the ball up the pitch quickly.
There's a reason why Marsch has, reportedly, been on Leeds' radar for a while now.
What will be success for Leeds and Jesse Marsch?
Over the next couple of months, Leeds' priority is survival.
They currently sit 16th in the Premier League table with just two points separating themselves and Burnley in 18th. Their struggling defence has conceded a huge tally of 60 from an xGA of 53.6.
One positive that Marsch has to work with is their upcoming fixtures.
In their 17 games against 'non-Big Six' teams this season, Leeds have gained 23 points, averaging 1.40 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.52 expected goals against (xGA).
Leeds' next five fixtures are: Leicester (A), Aston Villa (H), Norwich (H), Wolves (A), Southampton (H).
Safety, then, would be success - but only in the short-term.
"The dream is to play in European nights in a bigger stadium in two or three - probably three - years," owner Andrea Radrizzani told Sky Sports in September.
While that sounds a little ambitious given the difficulties of breaking into the core group of those battling for Europe, clubs such as Leicester, Wolves and West Ham have shown what is possible. First securing mid-table consistency, while successfully implementing a new style of play, feels like plenty for Marsch to be tasked with.
But if Bielsa was the man to end Leeds' 16-year exile from the top flight, with the club approaching two decades without European football, maybe that is how Marsch goes some way to replacing the irreplaceable man.
