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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: Opening weekend
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Jeremy Doku to win 2+ fouls in Chelsea vs Man City (16:30) at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Chelsea vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 14/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/5
A self-saboteur who thinks consistently spending millions of pounds and accumulating more assets than required will result in success. That is the definition of ‘Chelsea’ in the dictionary.
After finishing the season impressively, looking like they finally had a foundation and direction to build a challenge, the higher-ups just bulldozed it down to start again from scratch. Enzo Maresca is a risky appointment, and he has hardly been helped by the mass spending yet again this summer, meaning he not only has to get results, but has to manage the egos and playing time of a squad big enough to fill a 747.
On to this game then, and all early signs under the ex-Leicester boss point to this being a rout in Manchester City’s favour, with the Blues looking hapless defensively in pre-season. While that could be the case, I’m looking at the player match-ups for a bet.
JEREMY DOKU should start down the left for City, one of the league's best foul drawers, meaning his price TO WIN 2+ FOULS appeals at 10/11.
Doku won an average of 1.86 fouls per 90 in the Premier League last season, and won 2.23 fouls per 90 at Euro 2024 for Belgium.
His direct opponent, Malo Gusto, isn’t the most foul prone right back, averaging just 1.23 per 90 last season, so taking the angle from a Doku perspective covers us for other players hacking down the Belgian.
This bet won five times in his last eight starts at the back end of last season, and is priced as short as 4/11 in places. With Oscar Bobb and Jack Grealish both expected to be out, Doku should get a good run out at Stamford Bridge.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 1
- Arsenal 3-1 Wolves
- Newcastle 4-1 Southampton
- Everton 2-1 Brighton
- West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa
- Brentford 2-2 C Palace
- Chelsea 2-3 Man City
Already advised:
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist in Man Utd vs Fulham (20:00) at 2/1 (Betfair)
1.5pts Diogo Jota to score anytime in Ipswich vs Liverpool (12:30) at 13/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Omari Hutchinson 1+ assist in Ipswich vs Liverpool (12:30) at 10/1 (bet365)
2.5pts Alexander Isak to score anytime in Newcastle vs Southampton (15:00) at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Alexander Isak to score a brace in Newcastle vs Southampton (15:00) at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Daniel Munoz to commit 2+ fouls in Brentford vs Palace (14:00) at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
The Premier League is back, and aren't you lot lucky eh? Because with the return of the top flight comes another season of my column, packed with bad jokes, references to underlying data and hopefully plenty of winning tips.
- Jake Osgathorpe 2023/24 tipping record: +75.9pts (ROI: 12.6%)
Replicating last season's overall profit would be great, though strides need to be made in the Premier League...
Important to keep a detailed record of your betting, so here's mine from last season for tips published on Sporting Life.
— Jake Osgathorpe ⚽️📊 (@JAKEOZZ) July 22, 2024
Would be over the moon for a repeat in 24/25, and to crack the Premier League...
First column, focusing on outrights, of the new season out next week🤞 pic.twitter.com/u6MHgIDzAL
For those new to the column this season, welcome. As well as sharing my best Premier League tips for the upcoming weekend, I'll also provide my Super 6 selections, which can be found at the bottom of the article.
It's worth mentioning that the opening round of the free-to-play game this season has a prize of £2 million for the winner. You don't need me to say that it's worthwhile entering.
Onto the betting stuff now, and I always find start of season a little tough. I have perceptions and expectations of teams, but rarely is there an opportunity to get them onside at this level early on, so sharp are the bookies and fellow tipsters to the ins and outs of the Premier League.
However, I've found selections I really like the look of, mainly in the player markets as opposed to teams. So here goes...
Manchester United vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Away 17/4
Will we see a better Manchester United this season? The jury remains out on that, though they were historically bad last term, so it shouldn't be that hard to improve.
They are priced as very short favourites to beat a very dangerous Fulham team on opening weekend, and I won't be touching them with a bargepole. I am fairly confident we will see goals though.
BRUNO FERNANDES is a player I've backed in the outright markets, and his price to register 1+ ASSIST stood out to me at 2/1.
The Portuguese star looked sensational in the Community Shield with his passing and link-up play, barely missing a beat in his first game back after the Euros.
As mentioned in my outright column, he is United's creator-in-chief, topping their expected assist (xA) charts by a wide, wide margin last term, generating nearly 7.0 more xA than next best Alejandro Garnacho.
He will create chances in this opener, and the fact he is on set-pieces also helps this bet.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Ipswich vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/1 | Draw 9/2 | Away 3/10
Ipswich should be good fun this season. They were the Championship's entertainers last season, especially at home. The Tractor Boys scored 59 and conceded 32 in just 23 home league matches - an average of 3.96 per game.
I suspect that may continue in the Premier League, with Kieran McKenna throwing caution to the wind at Portman Road and perhaps adopting a more cautious approach on the road.
Liverpool will happily oblige in a free-scoring game, and that presents a couple of betting angles, the first being DIOGO JOTA TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Reports out of Anfield are that Jota is new manager Arne Slot's preferred number nine ahead of Darwin Nunez, which immediately makes him appeal. Last season, despite playing nearly 1000 fewer minutes than Nunez, Jota only scored one fewer Premier League goal.
Jota's xG per 90 stats are consistently impressive, averaging 0.52, 0.62, 0.52 and 0.42 in his season's at Liverpool, and - unlike Nunez - he is a reliable finisher. He'll get chances on Saturday, and 13/8 looks large.
Another bet that jumped off the page was OMARI HUTCHINSON's price to register 1+ ASSIST at 10/1.
I actually went into the Ipswich assist market hoping to back Leif Davis, but at 9/2 I thought he was short enough, and then after doing a bit of digging, it became pretty obvious Hutchinson was overpriced.
He registered five assists last season and averaged 0.21 xA per 90, which is only marginally behind Davis' average last term, with the left-back racking up more assists thanks to some excellent finishing plus more minutes on the pitch.
I was shocked to see Hutchinson more than double the price of his teammate despite creating a similar amount of opportunities, and am happy to have a small speculative play in what should be a high-scoring, end-to-end encounter.
Score prediction: Ipswich 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Arsenal vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/5 | Draw 11/2 | Away 12/1
Arsenal were strong at home last season, winning 15 of 19 and losing only twice. They did struggle with clean sheets though, just seven at the Emirates, while they kept out just two of the eventual bottom eight.
Both teams to score is priced at 6/5 here, and that did initially appeal, but there are a lot of question marks around Wolves, and I fully expect the Gunners to take another step up.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Everton vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/8
It's all change at Brighton with a new manager at the helm, but I suspect we will see a similar style to Roberto De Zerbi - aggressive, high-pressing attack minded football, as Tom Carnduff's Notebook column details.
Everton have fared well against that approach in recent meetings and I suspect they will relish this test in a game that will allow them to sit back and counter.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Newcastle vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/3 | Draw 17/4 | Away 13/2
Expect Newcastle to start the season at break-neck speed. On paper, this looks a bad match-up for Southampton's style of play, coming up against a ferocious pressing team and a raucous home crowd.
Eddie Howe's side were scintillating at St. James' Park last season, winning 12 of 19 and averaging a whopping 2.72 xGF per game. A continuation of that attacking process, which seems likely given the continuity in the team, would mean plenty of chances for ALEXANDER ISAK TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Swede finished last season impressively, bagging 11 in his last 12 league outings and eight in his last six home matches. Ending 23/24 with a 0.81 xG per 90, he was bettered only by Erling Haaland in that statistic, so his 5/6 to find the net against a defensively suspect newly-promoted side looks large.
Given I expect Newcastle to score a fair few, I'll also have a small bet on ISAK TO SCORE A BRACE at 4/1.
Across his last five home games of last season, the Swede scored three braces against West Ham, Tottenham and Sheffield United as Newcastle plundered a combined 13 goals.
Score prediction: Newcastle 4-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
West Ham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/10
I have high hopes for both of these teams this season, but am finding it incredibly difficult to find a betting angle here. The team news is different from different sources making player prop bets tough, while I don't have a serious lean in any of the main markets.
Watching brief from me, though if I had to pick a result (which I technically do given it's one of the Super 6 games), then I'll be a fence sitter and go draw.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
Don't expect Brentford to be in a relegation battle again this season. Thomas Frank's side were incredibly unlucky with injuries and results last season, as their process was once again top-half worthy.
Crystal Palace finished the season like a train under Oliver Glasner to creep into the top half, and they did it in style too, playing attack-minded, entertaining football. Despite losing Michael Olise, they have recruited well in the off-season, and will again be pushing the top 10.
I can see this being quite an open, end-to-end game, which could lead to a lot transitions, which usually leads to plenty of fouls.
One of the league’s big foul merchants last term was DANIEL MUNOZ, who can be backed at 10/11 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS on Sunday.
He averaged 1.88 fouls per 90 in 23/24, and finished the season hitting 2+ fouls in eight of his last 11. He carried that form into the Copa America, making 13 fouls in five outings, so the 10/11 looks large on Sunday.
While the Colombian did join up with the Eagles later after a deep Copa run, he started their last pre-season friendly, so I fully expect him to start here.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (15/08/24)
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