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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 9
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 104pts | Returned 109.37pts | P/L +5.37pts | ROI 5.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Friday
0.5pt Ryan Yates to score anytime in Leicester vs N Forest at 9/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
1.5pts Aston Villa to beat Bournemouth at 10/11 (William Hill)
1pt Brentford to win and BTTS vs Ipswich at 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365, William Hill)
1.5pts Rayan Ait-Nouri 1+ total shot in Brighton vs Wolves at 17/20 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pt Ruben Dias to score anytime in Man City vs Southampton at 17/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Erling Haaland to score a header in Man City vs Southampton at 11/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 17:30
2pts Dwight McNeil 1+ shot on target in Everton vs Fulham at 11/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
****Sunday's tips and Super 6 predictions to be added on Friday
Last weekend was one of those that you just move on from quickly. Nothing lost, nothing gained.
A couple of angles highlighted are worth persisting with, for sure. Backing opposition midfielders to be carded against Newcastle for one, though annoyingly I picked the wrong one last weekend, Hinshelwood being booked instead of Baleba.
Sunday was good though thanks to John Stones' controversial winner and Under 3.5 goals in Liverpool-Chelsea, but we move onto this weekend, where as you will see, the staking plan is slightly more speculative and a little more cautious than recent weeks.
We've reached the part of the season where bookies have clamped down on some early season edges, meaning the next few weeks will be spent searching for more sustainable value as we head to the Christmas period.
Anyway, here's hoping for a few bigger priced winners this weekend.
Leicester vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 15/8 | Draw 9/4 | Away 7/5
For my money, Leicester have been fortunate to have accumulated as many points as they have this season, while Forest deserve to be where they are based on performances. Take from that what you will.
The pair meet on Friday in what is sure to be a low-scoring, fine-margin football game, the type that both sets of players will relish. Such matches are usually settled by set-pieces, and just like Tom Carnduff, I'm wanting to take a pro-Forest angle with that in mind.
Annoyingly, Duffman (his nickname around the office) beat me to publish, tipping the same centre back I was going to put forward - Nikola Milenkovic - to score anytime. Even more annoyingly, he's tipped his CB partner Murillo too.
While I was going to go NO BET after seeing that, watching Forest on Monday against Palace has me wanting to take another Forest scorer in RYAN YATES at 9/1.
The Foxes have only conceded once from deadball situations this term but have conceded the most shots (49) and the second most xGA (5.12) from set-pieces.
Forest have been a threat, racking up the fifth most xG from such scenarios and scoring three times, and my hope is that with Milenkovic and Murillo the obvious threats, as well as Chris Wood, Yates gets a more favourable personnel match-up from deadballs and can take advantage.
That appeared the case on Monday, where Yates had three shots from set-piece situations, hitting the post with one of his efforts. In total this season, he has taken 12 shots, averaging 0.13 xG per 90 - not bad for a defensive midfielder.
It's the same figure he averaged last season, where he took 32 shots and scored once - with that goal coming from a set-piece.
Score prediction: Leicester 0-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/4
I can't quite believe ASTON VILLA's price TO WIN this game. They are available at 10/11 here, with the general 17/20 also value.
Villa are once again showing that they are among the best teams in the Premier League, looking set for another excellent season. They are fourth in the table, have won five of eight and have lost just once. That defeat came against Arsenal in a game they were the better side.
The price on offer here gives an implied win probability of 52%, which I don't think fully reflects the gulf between Villa and Bournemouth.
For context, Liverpool were 1/4 favourites with an implied win probability of 80% when they hosted and dismantled the Cherries. Villa aren't that far behind Liverpool that they have a 28% less chance of beating Bournemouth.
And that's before we look at Villa's displays at Villa Park this and last season. So far this campaign they've won three and lost one in front of their own fans, averaging 1.85 xGF and 0.80 xGA per game - a process which includes games against Arsenal and Manchester United. Last season they won 12 of 19 and averaged 2.10 xGF and 1.51 xGA per game.
In total, since Emery took charge, Villa have won 24 of his 36 home league games with a 67% strike rate.
The Cherries have struggled on the road so far this term too, with their only win a smash-and-grab at Everton, losing to Leicester and Liverpool while drawing with Nottingham Forest. Their underlying data is ok, but they have trailed in every road game.
Villa's midweek Champions League clash shouldn't be seen as an issue either. They did look sluggish against Wolves after an away game on matchday 1 but went onto win 3-1, while their quiet 0-0 against Manchester United followed an emotional and hard fought win over Bayern Munich. This game follows a comfortable, second gear performance against Bologna at home so shouldn't affect them.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Brentford vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/6 | Draw 29/10 | Away 18/5
Brentford let me down last weekend, taking the lead at Manchester United only to not turn up in the second half. I'm willing to get them onside again here though as they take on what has been a very disappointing Ipswich team.
The Bees have won three of an unbeaten four at home this season, conceding in all four contests, so at a price of 9/4, I think BRENTFORD TO WIN AND BTTS is worth a punt.
Thomas Frank's side have seen BTTS cop in seven of eight this season, only failing to do so at Anfield, while their three home wins have all seen this bet land.
They've racked up an average of 2.44 xGF and 1.10 xGA per game across those four matches - all against teams in the bottom six.
Ipswich find themselves in that glut of teams, and are one of four sides who remain winless this term. The Tractor Boys have found the net in three of four away days including at Manchester City, averaging 1.03 xGF per game.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Brighton vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/1
Wolves remain winless and bottom of the table after John Stones' last-gasp winner last weekend. Gary O'Neil has been awarded a new contract nonetheless, and they head to Brighton looking to snap an 11-game winless run in the league. It's one win in 18 stretching back to last season.
Despite the poor results, they've been a fun watch, especially RAYAN AIT-NOURI who has been a key attacking cog in the Wolves system.
He has two goals and two assists in eight matches, but it's his shot output that catches the eye, and makes the 17/20 available for him to have just 1+ TOTAL SHOT look huge.
The Algerian has fired nine shots in his eight games, an average of 1.23 per 90, with the left-back clearly given licence to get forward by his coach.
This bet has landed in six of those eight outings, landing in all four of Wolves away matches. Last week he was deployed as a wing-back and while he failed to register a shot against Manchester City, I suspect he'll get more joy against a gung-ho Brighton team.
The Seagulls have conceded 11 shots per game this term, and despite propping up the table, we know Wolves will continue to play their own expansive style, meaning Ait-Nouri should get the opportunity to pull the trigger at least once.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Manchester City vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/11 | Draw 17/2 | Away 18/1
As I said in last weekend's column, Southampton have a lot of issues, but defending set-pieces really is the most glaring. It's the basics really.
After last week, where Wout Faes registered a shot for us and Leicester scored their winner from a corner, the Saints have now conceded the joint most goals from deadball situations in the league this term (7), with Russell Martin's side shipping the most xG from set-pieces (5.61).
So far on the road this season they have conceded a combined 14 shots from set-pieces, with five of those coming from opposition centre-backs.
Manchester City have been the second most dangerous team from such scenarios this term according to xG, scoring three times, and Pep Guardiola's side should have ample opportunity to get the ball in the mixer on Saturday.
So who to bet on? John Stones has scored in back-to-back games, netting three in total this season from just five shots, and is priced around the 6/1 mark here. Nathan Ake had one ruled out in midweek, is a general 8/1 shot but an unlikely starter. Josko Gvardiol has netted twice this term as is priced at 11/2 while Manuel Akanji is the least likely shooter among City defenders, and could also be left out, at 9/1.
Somewhere in between those prices sits RUBEN DIAS, and at 17/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME he's worth a small bet.
Dias has fired 10 shots so far this season with four of those coming from set-pieces. Last season he pulled the trigger 20 times with 10 attempts coming via the set-piece route, while the campaign before saw him shoot nine times from dead-ball situations.
He's only scored four times for Manchester City, but was fairly prolific for Benfica, netting 12 in 135 appearances, and with John Stones, Erling Haaland and co. likely taking attention off of his attacking threat on set-pieces, the Portuguese defender can pounce. The fact he is invited to shoot from range is a bonus for this bet, too.
Given all the above, I'll also have another go on ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE A HEADER which is available at 11/2. It's 19/10 in places.
The Norwegian is as short as 2/11 to score anytime here, and after firing five shots with his head in midweek, can break his headed duck this season. Across all competitions, 17 of his 52 shots have come with his head.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Everton vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 6/4
While the price is about right, we have to keep backing DWIGHT MCNEIL 1+ SHOT ON TARGET. It was 6/5 last week and he's 11/10 this with Betfair and Paddy Power. Some firms have caught on and priced him at 8/11.
It landed for us last weekend, meaning the Englishman has fired a shot on target in five of his last six matches. McNeil has been Everton's key man in attack, with his switch to a number 10 role clearly helping to increase his shooting opportunities.
In total, he's had 14 shots in his last six outings, scoring three and assisting three in that time. He's bang in form, and Fulham are a side that like to play an open style of football, conceding an average of 13.3 shots per game, so McNeil should get a couple of chances to test Fulham keeper Bernd Leno.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 13
- Man City 4-1 Southampton
- Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth
- Everton 1-1 Fulham
- Chelsea v Newcastle
- West Ham v Man Utd
- Arsenal v Liverpol
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