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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 8
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 87.5pts | Returned 92.96pts | P/L +5.46pts | ROI 6.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 3.5 Goals in Liverpool vs Chelsea (16:30) at 4/5 (Betfair, bet365)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Liverpool vs Chelsea (16:30) at 2/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
"Annyeonghaseyo! Maekju juseo."
That was pretty much the extent of my language learning while on holiday in South Korea - which literally means 'Hello! Beer please'. Oh, and "Kamsahamnida", because, you know, 'thank you' is important too.
I left these shores on the back of a bad week for the column, with a lot of losers, so apologies for that.
After Erling Haaland failed to score in the 12:30 kick-off despite five shots and two on target, things were looking up at half-time of the 3pm games, with West Ham leading the corner count 3-1 at Brentford and Chelsea having accumulated a grand total of zero corners against Brighton.
The Hammers went on to lose their battle 7-6 while the Blues bludgeoned eight second half corners to kill the unders bets...
Oh, and the bigger priced foul bet in Forest vs Fulham fell one short, with the home side committing seven in the first half and only four in the second despite chasing the game. It was one of those weekends, close but no cigar.
Thankfully for you readers, Joe Townsend stepped in for me last week and landed a hefty profit. Some say he should have his own tipping column, and he has the power to change that, being the editor and all.
Anyway, you're stuck with me again, so hopefully we can pick up from where he left off and rack up some more profit.
Liverpool vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 3/5 | Draw 16/5 | Away 15/4
As documented here at Sporting Life, table-toppers Liverpool have had a dream schedule to start the campaign. The Reds have faced no side currently in the top nine, while all bar one (Manchester United) of the teams faced finished in the bottom 11 last season.
We are going to learn an awful lot about Arne Slot and his side's credentials between now and the next international break, with the Reds facing Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa in the league, as well as RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.
The same can be said of Chelsea, who, barring an opening day defeat to champions Manchester City, have only faced teams who finished in the bottom 12 last season. This then is the first big test for both.
I have a better feel for what Liverpool are, or are trying to be, than I do Chelsea. Slot has brought more control to this Liverpool team which has led to them limiting opponents better than they did under Jurgen Klopp. They lead the league in goals conceded (2) and xGA (5.17 - 0.73 per game).
Granted the schedule has played into that somewhat, but their approach won't change for the visit of Chelsea, meaning UNDER 3.5 GOALS simply has to be backed at 4/5.
Liverpool have looked rock solid in nearly every game this season, and this bet has in fact landed in all seven Premier League contests, with a control over chaos approach seeing the average goals in their games drop considerably.
Under Klopp between 2017 and 2024, Liverpool matches averaged 3.1 goals per game. So far under Slot, through an admittedly small sample size, that figure has dropped to 2.1.
Chelsea of course have the capacity to score and concede a bundle, but Enzo Maresca will be acutely aware of the difficulty of this challenge and I suspect we'll see a more withdrawn approach from the visitors, too.
Combined, Under 3.5 Goals has landed in 12 of the pair's 14 league games this season, while the head-to-head stats (read into them what you will given we've two new managers and all...) have seen Under 3.5 cop in 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Given all of the above, I'll also have a smaller stake on UNDER 2.5 GOALS as well which is generously priced at 2/1.
Despite the notion that both sides are attacking-minded, Under 2.5 has landed more often for both teams than over this season. Both sides have delivered four Under 2.5 games, meaning eight of the pair's combined 14 (57%) have seen two or fewer goals.
This could be a very fine margin affair given the way in which Liverpool in particular play, so I wouldn't put anyone off No First Scorer at a huge 22/1 (Sky Bet), a bet that has landed in five of the last seven head-to-heads. I'm leaving that off the staking plan though as I think we will see at least a goal at Anfield.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 11
- Man Utd 1-2 Brentford
- Newcastle 1-1 Brighton
- Fulham 2-2 Aston Villa
- Bournemouth 0-1 Arsenal
- Wolves 1-3 Man City
- Liverpool 1-0 Chelsea
Already advised
Saturday 12:30
1.5pts Tottenham 8+ corners vs West Ham at 11/10 (bet365)
0.5pt Brennan Johnson to be carded in Tottenham vs West Ham at 9/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
2pts Kenny Tete to commit 2+ fouls in Fulham vs Aston Villa at evens (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Dwight McNeil 1+ shot on target in Ipswich vs Everton at 6/5 (Unibet)
2pts Brentford or Draw (double chance) vs Manchester United at 6/5 (General)
0.5pt Brentford to score in first 10 minutes vs Manchester United at 9/1 (bet365)
1.5pts Carlos Baleba to be carded in Newcastle vs Brighton at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Wout Faes 1+ total shot in Southampton vs Leicester at 13/8 (bet365)
1pt Over 5.5 Cards in Bournemouth vs Arsenal at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Sunday 14:00
1pt Manchester City to win and Both teams to score vs Wolves (14:00) at 13/8 (General)
0.5pt Erling Haaland to score header in Wolves vs Man City (14:00) at 7/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Tottenham vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 1/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 9/2
Are Tottenham even good? What are West Ham under Julen Lopetegui?
Those are two questions to be answered in the next few weeks. My answers would be; 1) they are ok, probably 6th best in the league and 2) no better than David Moyes' team.
Glad that's sorted then. Anyway, onto the betting, and while Spurs may not be the top-four shoo-ins many would have thought pre-season, they are the corner kings of the division, and the price of 11/10 for SPURS 8+ CORNERS appeals.
Ange Postecoglou's side have racked up 63 corners in seven league games - an average of nine per game - with this line being covered in their two home games to date against mid-to-bottom half calibre teams (12 vs Everton and 9 vs Brentford), while they were one short of eight when hosting title-chasing Arsenal.
Their style of play sees them get the ball to the byline regularly, and that combined with a high press is why they have racked up so many corners.
As for the opposition, so far this season I would say West Ham have only played two sides who have a similar approach to Spurs, conceding 12 corners at home to Manchester City and seven at Brentford.
Another bet I simply have to include on a price basis is BRENNAN JOHNSON TO BE CARDED, which is available at 9/1 yet is 9/2 in places.
The Welshman has been red-hot in front of goal of late, netting in seven straight games for club and country, so his anytime goalscorer price (11/5, Paddy Power) made some appeal, but the whopping odds for him to be carded are preferred.
He was carded in Spurs' dominant win over Manchester United only a couple of games ago, and was booked in his last match as Wales drew 2-2 in Iceland. That means he's been booked in two of his last three starts, and he's always had a petulant side to his game.
Stretching back to a loan spell at Lincoln in 20/21 where he was booked 10 times in League One, Johnson gives as good as he gets. He was carded three times in limited minutes last season and picked up six yellows year before, and factor in that this is a derby of sorts and the 9/1 just looks massive.
The last four meetings between the sides have seen 21 cards shown, with Johnson also picking up a card the last time the pair met.
Score prediction: Tottenham 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Fulham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
Both Fulham and Aston Villa have made solid starts to the season and this is likely to be a cracking game, but my eyes have again been drawn to KENNY TETE, with the right-back even-money yet again to COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
He landed us the bounty the last time he was selected against Newcastle, and he has committed 2+ fouls in four of his last six, alongside all three of his home games.
In fact, in three outings at Craven Cottage he's made eight fouls, with the Dutchman playing more on the front foot at home than away, snapping into tackles.
This weekend he will likely be up against Jaden Philogene, who has drawn 3.38 fouls per 90 in his limited league minutes. Jacob Ramsey could play there too and is very elusive as well, while Morgan Rogers likes to drift into Tete's channel.
Hopefully the Dutchman can deliver again.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Ipswich vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
In what has been a poor start to the season for Everton, DWIGHT MCNEIL has been the shining light.
The left-winger has been arguably their best performer, especially in attack. He's the Toffees' top scorer (3) and joint-top assister (2) through seven matches.
McNeil has created 23 chances for his teammates - 16 more than anyone else - which highlights his importance to the Toffees attack, and while his price to register an assist (9/2) did appeal, it's the 6/5 about him producing 1+ SHOT ON TARGET in this game that appeals most. The same bet is 4/6 in places.
It's a bet that has landed in four of his last five outings, and against an Ipswich side who have been very leaky this season - conceding the most xGA (15.7) and third-most goals (14) - he should get a fair few shooting opportunities.
Score prediction: Ipswich 0-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Manchester United vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/6 | Draw 3/1 | Away 7/2
We all know Manchester United are a team treading water. They aren't even taking a step forward before another one or two back: they're simply not progressing under Erik ten Hag.
Three wins in 10 across all competitions - those coming against Fulham on opening day, a shocking Southampton side and League One Barnsley - show as much.
They've scored the fewest goals in the Premier League and have been dispatched at home by the two decent teams they've faced (Liverpool and Tottenham), so to see 14th-placed United odds-on and as short as 4/6 to beat a very solid Brentford team just looks and feels wrong.
I think there is plenty of juice in the Brentford prices given what we have seen from both sides this term, and the fact that Thomas Frank has befuddled Ten Hag in all of their meetings since the Dutchman arrived in England is another reason to believe that BRENTFORD OR DRAW is a fantastic bet at 6/5.
The Bees have a W3 D1 L3 record so far, but all three defeats have come away at sides who finished in the top five last season - a level we know United are nowhere near.
Frank's men have fared very well against teams likely to be in and around them come the end of the season - a category the Red Devils are more likely to fit into.
Brentford dismantled United 4-0 early in Ten Hag's reign and all three subsequent meetings have been tightly fought, with Ten Hag struggling to find answers.
Last season's game at Old Trafford saw the Bees lead 1-0 heading into stoppage time before some direct football and clinical finishing from Scott McTominay saw United snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, and the reverse game ended 1-1 despite Brentford dominating the xG count 3.29 - 0.59 and racking up 31 shots.
People are also quick to forget that Brentford perform like a top-half team when fully-fit, which they are now, so look overpriced to avoid defeat at Old Trafford against a depleted United who could be without 10 players and forced to play Jonny Evans at left-back.
Given that this game sees the league's fastest starters in action, it would be rude not have a fun punt on BRENTFORD TO SCORE IN THE FIRST 10 MINUTES, which is priced at 9/1 with bet365.
The Bees have scored the first goal in six of their seven Premier League fixtures this season, netting nine in the first-half. So far their first goal has come in the 29th, 43rd, 1st, 1st, 1st and 2nd minutes, with this bet landing in each of their last four.
A lot has been made of Brentford's early goals and their tactics that lead to it, and we have a cracking piece on site which delves deeper into explaining how the Bees are starting so fast.
Hopefully we can capitalise.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Newcastle vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 19/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 12/5
I was initially going to back Newcastle offsides here given Brighton have drawn the most flags in the league so far (4.4 per game), but I've been lured in by a trend that could be more lucrative.
Midfielders opposing Newcastle this season have been carded on a very regular basis, and I think it's worth sticking with that theory here. CARLOS BALEBA is the main man we will be backing on Saturday TO BE CARDED, with his 23/10 price extremely generous.
Baleba has already been carded once this term in just 420 minutes of action (per 90 of 0.21), but last season he was a card monster, collecting seven in limited minutes for a per 90 average of 0.48.
The position he's playing under new manager Fabian Hurzeler sees him shoulder a lot of defensive responsibility, and he will be extremely busy at St James' Park.
Newcastle's midfield possess some of the best foul-drawers in the entire league. Bruno Guimaraes is the league's most fouled player (27 - avg of 3.88 per game) and Sandro Tonali is extremely elusive (8 fouls won in limited minutes - 3.10 per game), while Joelinton is a handful and Anthony Gordon also drags midfielders over.
In total, Newcastle have seen 11 opposition midfielders booked in their last six league games. That's an insane stat. Nine starters and two off the bench.
As such, Baleba's odds look large given his liking for a card and his workload. He's 10/11 in places and a general 6/4 shot.
In two of those games all (or both) of the opposing midfielders have been booked, so take a look at the team sheet when announced to see who is partnering Baleba, as they too could be worth a punt.
Oh, and the referee here is Peter Bankes, an excellent appointment for card backers. He's averaged 5.4 cards per game so far this season and 5.36 last, so there's no wonder the card line is set at 5.5.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Southampton vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 19/10
Southampton have a lot of issues and they aren't a good side. I've not told you anything you don't already know with that line have I, but perhaps their glaring weakness in defending set-pieces could be new information.
Across their seven league games this season, Saints have conceded 37 shots from dead-ball situations.
Twelve of those attempts have come from opposing centre-backs, so having a small play on Foxes defender WOUT FAES 1+ TOTAL SHOT at a big price of 13/8 looks worthwhile, with the same bet odds-on in places.
Faes hasn't been an overly prolific shooter this term, firing four shots in seven outings, but he looks the biggest dead-ball threat at Leicester. He has a goal to his name, netting at Fulham from a corner.
He mustered 24 shots and scored twice last season, highlighting how dangerous he can be, so he's worth a poke on Saturday with Southampton struggling to deal with opposing defenders, especially at St Mary's, where they've registered three, two and two shots in three games.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Bournemouth vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/1 | Draw 29/10 | Away 8/13
Now-Premier League favourites Arsenal face yet another tricky away game as they head to Bournemouth. The Gunners have already gone to Villa Park, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and the Etihad this season.
All three have been hard-fought, intense games and this will be no different given the way the Cherries play. Fouls and cards will be on the menu, it's just about finding the best way to attack.
I think the angle is backing high card lines, with OVER 5.5 CARDS worth a poke at 17/10.
Both teams have been card-heavy this season, so with a good referee appointment, we should get a run for our money.
Arsenal have so far collected 3.0 cards per game, with Bournemouth at 2.71, while the Gunners' games have seen an average of 5.6 cards and the Cherries' 6.0.
Granted, that Bournemouth figure is somewhat boosted by the 14-card haul when they hosted Chelsea, but even if we take that game away they are still seeing 4.7 cards per game.
This bet would have landed in six of the pair's combined 14 matches this season - a strike-rate of 42%, meaning implied odds of 13/10. Taking just Bournemouth home games and Arsenal away games, this bet would have landed in four of a combined six.
The referee here is Robert Jones, who has been busy of late. He has dished out an average of 5.75 cards per game this season, with this bet landing in six of his eight games in all competitions.
So, we have two sides who sit in the top six in the league for fouls committed, who collect a lot of cards, combined with a stringent referee who has been throwing them like confetti.
We should get a run for our money.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Wolves vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 15/2 | Draw 9/2 | Away 2/7
Wolves could well be in trouble this season, yet the board have backed Gary O'Neil with a contract extension. The Old Gold prop up the table and have conceded 21 goals, some six more than anyone else.
In fairness, they have had the toughest schedule of any side in the league. Five of their seven opponents finished in the top seven last season. And it gets worse before it gets better, with Manchester City in town.
City had shown a few signs of weakness prior to the international break, with Brentford and Fulham running them very close, but Pep's side still picked up wins against both, creating plenty of chances. Wolves represent a good match-up for City in my mind, with O'Neil's men playing open, attack-minded football that affords their opponents space. They have allowed 2.00 xGA per game this term.
So, I fully expect a City win, but given the champions' defensive frailties and Wolves' attacking mindset - they've scored in six of seven league games - backing CITY TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals at 13/8.
For context, City have seen both teams score in six of their seven league games so far this season, and in 29 of 45 (64%) since the start of last season. This bet has landed in four of seven this term and 20 of 45 (44%) since the start of last season, which would give implied odds of just under 13/10.
I also want to back ERLING HAALAND in some form, and while he's a short 4/6 to score anytime, the 7/1 about him SCORING A HEADER is worth a small bet.
Wolves have conceded the second most headed shots this season (22, which is 3.1 per game) and the most headed goals (6 at 0.86 per game). We know Haaland is a beast in the air, and while he's yet to bag with his noggin so far this term, he has had 10 attempts, registering a headed shot in five of his seven outings.
Last season he had 31 shots in the league with his head (1.09 per 90) and scored four times (5.2 xG - 0.18 p90), while the year before he had 28 shots (0.91 per 90) and scored seven times (5.4 xG - 0.18 p90). 7/1 looks large, with the same bet 3/1 in places.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
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