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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 6
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 73pts | Returned 83.54pts | P/L +10.54pts | ROI 14.4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30
2.5pts Erling Haaland to score anytime in Newcastle vs Man City at 4/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00
2pts Arsenal to commit 11+ fouls vs Leicester at 22/25 (Unibet)
1pts West Ham most corners vs Brentford at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
2pts Under 5.5 Chelsea corners vs Brighton at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Under 4.5 Chelsea corners vs Brighton at 7/4 (bet365)
0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime in Everton vs C Palace at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Michael Keane to score anytime in Everton vs C Palace at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt Nottingham Forest to commit 12+ and Fulham to commit 12+ fouls at 12/5 (Sky Bet)
Sunday
2pts Liam Delap to commit 2+ fouls in Ipswich vs Aston Villa at 5/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Matthijs de Ligt 1+ total shot in Man Utd vs Spurs at 5/6 (bet365)
Last weekend was another good one, though it could have been so much better.
Tottenham cleared the 8+ corner line but came one short of the 10+, which would have delivered an 11/4 shot, despite having 10 minutes to find another, and Arsenal fell short of the 13+ fouls required for a 5/4 shot despite making 10 after 50 minutes. While clinging on for dear life, they didn't make another foul all game.
Having said all that, we can't grumble too much about a +5.27pt weekend.
Full disclosure, I'm off on holiday on Thursday, so apologies if some prices quoted are bigger elsewhere on release, but the prices in the staking plan I see as value, so anything bigger should be gobbled up.
Newcastle vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 4/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/7
I was very hot on Newcastle to finish in the top four pre-season, but I have to say, their performances have been underwhelming. Some may see getting results when not playing well as a good thing, but regression always catches up.
Eddie Howe's dug in with 10 men against Southampton, were second best at Bournemouth, battered for long spells against Tottenham, beat Wolves thanks to two screamers and were carved open with ease by Fulham in defeat last weekend.
It's been disappointing. They've allowed a whopping 1.76 xGA per game so far, the sixth most in the league through five games, and even without Kevin De Bruyne and Rodri, City could create plenty given what we have seen.
That means ERLING HAALAND's price TO SCORE ANYTIME should be snapped up.
He's 4/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power which is huge for a cyborg that has scored 10 in five league games this term. He's shorter than 1/2 in places.
The big Norwegian has averaged 1.16 xG per 90 so far, highlighting the amount of chances he's getting on the end of.
Arsenal vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/6 | Draw 6/1 | Away 14/1
Arsenal hung very tough last weekend, and while they fell short of their foul line at Manchester City, I'm willing to get burned again and back ARSENAL TO COMMIT 11+ FOULS. We can get 22/25 with Unibet, with some bookies as short as 8/15.
The Gunners have played very dirty in the early stages of the season, committing the sixth most fouls through five matches (65 - 13 per game).
This weekend they come up against a Leicester team who are the third most fouled team this season (69 - 13.8).
It's quite clear that the Foxes have some excellent foul winners in their side, notably Jordan Ayew and Abdul Fatawu, both averaging over three fouls won per 90.
With the game likely to see an aggressive Arsenal press combine with a lot of Leicester counter-attacking, we could see the hosts rack up the fouls again.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Brentford vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 2/1
Things have started poorly for Julen Lopetegui at West Ham, and the pressure is beginning to mount after a poor showing at home to Chelsea, and a thrashing by Liverpool in the Carabao Cup.
Brentford represent another tricky away day for the Hammers, who have so far drawn with Fulham and beaten Crystal Palace on their travels.
From a betting perspective, WEST HAM MOST CORNERS looks an interesting angle at 13/8, as I'm surprised they are the outsiders in this market.
Brentford have haemorrhaged corners so far, losing the corner count emphatically in all five league dates, including both home games against Crystal Palace (corner count 4-7) and Southampton (2-8).
In total they have won just 17 corners (second fewest) and conceded a whopping 45, which is the most in the league.
West Ham haven't been going mad for corners, but baring their home game with Manchester City (corner count 3-11), all of their games have been tight on the corner front, with this bet winning in two of the four, with one loss and one tie.
As outsiders in this market, I'm happy to roll the dice, especially with a performance needed and some very direct wide players at their disposal.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Chelsea vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away 10/3
We are back on the corners again, this time opposing them.
That's because, believe it or not, Brighton have conceded the fewest corners in the league so far. The Seagulls have allowed just 11 in their five games, an average of only 2.2 per game. That's fewer than Manchester City and half as many as third best Liverpool.
It's definitely to do with Fabian Hurzeler's style and system, and in Chelsea we have a low-corner team. They have accumulated only the 14th most corners this season, just 21 through five matches for an average of 4.2.
We can back CHELSEA UNDER 5.5 CORNERS at 10/11 which rates a cracking bet.
This bet would have landed in all Chelsea's games so far this season, and all of Brighton's.
I'll also have a smaller play on CHELSEA UNDER 4.5 CORNERS at 7/4, which has landed in three of the Blues' five league games and all five of Brighton's, who have allowed 1, 4, 3, 2, and 1 so far.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Everton vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 6/4
Yes, I haven't learned my lesson. I'm going back to the JAMES TARKOWSKI and MICHAEL KEANE TO SCORE ANYTIME bets that didn't win, or even come close, last weekend. Both are 12/1 this weekend.
- CLICK HERE to back James Tarkowski to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Michael Keane to score anytime with Sky Bet
While Everton didn't threaten Leicester much from set-pieces last weekend, I'm willing to view that as the exception and not the norm. The Toffees are, after all, a set-piece juggernaut pretty much every week, racking up the most xG from dead-ball situations since the start of last season, and the third most so far this campaign.
Crystal Palace have shown vulnerabilities this season, as despite keeping Brentford and Leicester quiet, they have allowed 0.66, 0.40 and 0.88 xG from dead-balls against West Ham, Chelsea and Manchester United respectively.
I expect at least one of Tarkowski and Keane to get a chance and go close this weekend in what is a must-win game.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 9/4 | Away 19/10
In short, I think this could be a tasty game. Two of the early season over-achievers, Forest unbeaten in eighth and Fulham a point behind in ninth, going head-to-head to extend their excellent starts.
I'm targeting team fouls, but not just one team, we're getting greedy and backing both teams. NOTTINGHAM FOREST TO COMMIT 12+ FOULS AND FULHAM TO COMMIT 12+ FOULS can be backed at 15/8.
Both have been good for committing and winning fouls this term, with managers at the helm who want their teams to snap into tackles, and some very direct tricky players to draw opponents in.
Forest have committed 12.6 fouls and won 12.8 per game, while Fulham have committed 14.0 fouls and won 12.8 per game.
We just need the two sides to continue in the same manner and both will hit their lines. This bet would have landed in three of both sides' games so far this season.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Wolves vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/1 | Draw 17/4 | Away 3/10
Gary O'Neil could be a man in trouble. Wolves haven't impressed at all so far this season, sit rock bottom of the table and face a run of Liverpool-Brentford(a)-Man City-Brighton in their next four. Tough.
Liverpool were dominant in dismantling Bournemouth last weekend, and Wolves play in a similarly high-pressing style that should suit the Reds. This should be comfortable.
Score prediction: Wolves 0-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Ipswich vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 3/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/6
Ipswich are still searching for their first Premier League win of the season and face a tough task this weekend against high-flying Aston Villa.
LIAM DELAP is the player to target, with his price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS simply massive at 5/4. He's as short as 3/10 in places.
So far this season, the former Manchester City forward has made 13 fouls, the third most in the league, averaging 3.17 per 90.
He has hit 2+ in three of his five starts, and it would have likely been four in five last weekend had he not been booked for his only foul of the game.
Delap registered four in his last home game against Fulham, with his high-pressing style fantastic for fouls.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-3 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Manchester United vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 13/10 | Draw 11/4 | Away 17/10
Manchester United have impressed me so far this season, and in my mind have been unfortunate with results. This would be a good time to get a statement win, and it's very possible against a high-pressing, aggressive Tottenham side.
Spurs continue to look vulnerable from set-pieces, so I'll go back to the well with that angle in mind, this time backing MATTHIJS DE LIGT 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 5/6.
The Dutchman has been a constant threat since being brought into the starting line-up following his transfer from Bayern Munich, taking two shots (and scoring) against Southampton and firing three shots last time out against Crystal Palace.
At Bayern last season he averaged 0.91 shots per 90, so is no stranger to efforts on goal, and the 5/6 looks huge value for just one shot on Sunday - it's as short as 2/5 in places.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 8
- Arsenal 2-0 Leicester
- Chelsea 2-2 Brighton
- Brentford 1-1 West Ham
- Wolves 0-3 Liverpool
- Ipswich 1-3 Aston Villa
- Man Utd 2-2 Tottenham
Odds correct at 0930 BST (26/09/24)
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