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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 5
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 55pts | Returned 60.27pts | P/L +5.27pts | ROI 9.6%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday (Scroll down for Saturday's selections)
1.5pts Arsenal to commit 13+ fouls vs Man City (16:30) at 5/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt No first scorer in Man City vs Arsenal (16:30) at 12/1 (bet365)
Manchester City vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 3/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away 10/3
It's fair to say that these two teams will be the sides battling it out for the title come the end of the season. The importance of this game in the season-long race? I'll let you decide.
Last season's two head-to-heads between Pep Guardiola and his disciple Mikel Arteta were hugely entertaining contests full of chances, goals, fouls and cards. I am of course joking.
The two games were barely watchable, with both teams cancelling eachother out and both being happy with a draw on both occasions, even if Arsenal did nick a 1-0 win at the Emirates.
In total across two matches there was one goal, 34 shots, six shots on target, 2.57 xG, 44 fouls and seven cards. The away team in both matches mustered just four (Man City) and six (Arsenal) shots.
The schedule has been harsh on Arsenal. So far this season they've visited Aston Villa and Tottenham, winning both and keeping two clean sheets, while they head to the Etihad after a goalless draw in the Champions League against Atalanta.
City have had it much easier in comparison, but also played out a 0-0 in midweek against a heavily rotated Inter team. They created enough to win that match (2.35 xGF, four big chances), but I fully expect them to find it much tougher to carve open Arsenal this weekend, as they did last season.
Defensive solidity and structure has become a calling card of the Gunners under Arteta, especially away from home. Last term they allowed a league low 0.86 xGA per game when travelling, keeping City at bay at the Etihad impressively among those matches.
Under 2.5 goals landed in six of their nine away matches against top half teams last season, and has landed in two out of two this season, so that, coupled with the closely-matched nature of both teams, the stakes, and the 'must-not-lose' attitude, makes backing the under a bet here.
My colleague Tom Carnduff has done the match preview for this game and has tipped the unders at a better price than it is at the time of writing, so I'll instead get a little greedier in this column, rather than duplicating a tip.
Given what we saw in both head-to-heads, and in midweek, chancing NO FIRST SCORER is also worth a go at 12/1. No Martin Odegaard and possibly no Kevin De Bruyne helps this bet, with the game likely to be a grind and a very tough watch for the neutrals.
This obviously landed in this game last season, and by taking the no first scorer instead of the 0-0 correct score, we are covered if the only goal(s) in the game is an own goal.
Given I expect to see a close repeat of last season, the Arsenal foul line looks to be too low. We know how the game is going to go, with City the aggressors and Arsenal digging in, just like last season, and I think we could see plenty of niggly fouls to slow City down.
ARSENAL TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS is a cracking bet at 5/4. It's 5/6 in places.
In this game last season the Gunners committed 20 fouls, while so far this season they are averaging 13.8 fouls per game. They committed 16 at Villa Park and had they not been so comfortable (or Spurs so poor and passive), they would have cleared this line with ease last weekend after committing seven in the first half.
For those that want a ladder, it's 15/8 for 14+, 9/2 for 16+ and 15/2 for 17+.
Score prediction: Manchester City 0-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Saturday Selections
Saturday 12:30
1.5pts Noni Madueke 3+ total shots in West Ham vs Chelsea at 11/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Wolves to commit 14+ fouls vs Aston Villa at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Kenny Tete to commit 2+ fouls in Fulham vs Newcastle at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime in Leicester vs Everton at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Michael Keane to score anytime in Leicester vs Everton at 14/1 (bet365)
2pts Tottenham 8+ corners vs Brentford at 11/10 (Boylesports)
1pt Tottenham 10+ corners vs Brentford at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Tottenham 12+ corners vs Brentford at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Nathan Collins to score anytime in Tottenham vs Brentford at 16/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Ethan Pinnock to score anytime in Tottenham vs Brentford at 22/1 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30
2.5pts Manuel Ugarte to commit 2+ fouls and make 3+ tackles in C Palace vs Man Utd (17:30) at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Sunday
2pts Carlos Baleba to commit 2+ fouls in Brighton vs N Forest (14:00) at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
We had a cracking week last weekend, posting +6pts profit to get us right back in the green.
My favourite bet of the lot landed too, with Tottenham out-cornering Arsenal (just), making it a successful column. Hopefully we can find more profit this weekend, though as you can see by the staking plan, we have a few different approaches.
We've multiple plays on multiple games, but that's only due to angles that have presented themselves. Hopefully this approach sees us rewarded, and it would be lovely if a centre-back scorer (or two) found the net.
West Ham vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 9/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away evens
The team who have conceded the most shots in the Premier League through four games isn't Southampton, or Ipswich, or even Leicester. It's West Ham. That surprised me.
They have allowed 73 attempts, an average of 18.3 per game, so I was immediately drawn to Chelsea player shot lines, and NONI MADUEKE's price of 11/8 for 3+ TOTAL SHOTS looked value. The same bet is 8/11 in places.
The Englishman has had a solid start to the season under Enzo Maresca, creating plenty and getting plenty of shots away.
In three league appearances he fired 12 attempts, with this bet landing in all three outings. His shots per 90 is at a whopping 4.5, and the winger even got three shots away before the hour mark at Bournemouth last time out.
In total, despite playing only 75% of available minutes, Madueke is responsible for 26% of Chelsea's total shots. He really is a shoot-on-sight kind of guy, highlighted by the fact that he had three attempts in just 24 minutes when making his England debut.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Aston Villa vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/1
I'm going back to the well with WOLVES TO COMMIT 14+ FOULS this weekend, with the line and the price still good to turn down.
It landed comfortably last weekend against Newcastle, Gary O'Neil's side finishing on 17, and the recommended ladder play (14+, 15+, 16+, 17+) flew in.
Newcastle represented the most fouled team in the league, and this weekend, Wolves face the second most fouled team in the Premier League.
Aston Villa have drawn 59 fouls in four games - an average of 14.8. Wolves sit second for fouls committed, behind West Ham by only one, and we only need them to hit their 15.5 per game average again here.
Factor in that this is a West Midlands rivalry game, the desperation for points after a poor start, and their general playing style, and you could easily see the Old Gold rack up a large foul count once again. 15+ is at 6/5, 18+ is 4/1 and 20+ can be backed at 9/1 if anyone wants to ladder again.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Fulham vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/10
This game looks pretty tough to call, but I am very surprised to see a price of even money for Fulham right-back KENNY TETE TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
Not only is this due to his match-up, but his recent record.
Tete has averaged 1.5 fouls per 90 this season, with this bet landing in both home games so far, which is no surprise given the Cottagers do have more of a go in front of their own fans.
This weekend he will come up against Anthony Gordon, who has been fouled 15 times in four appearances, an average of 3.99 per 90.
Opposing right backs against Newcastle this season have committed 2-1-2-4 fouls, so chancing Tete to add to that figure appeals at the prices.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Leicester vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/8
This is a big game for both teams, but there looks a lovely betting angle available, with a strength meeting a weakness.
The strength is Everton's dangerous nature from set-pieces, the weakness is Leicester's issues in defending the dead-ball.
Since the start of last season, no team has generated more xG from set-plays than the Toffees (19.47), while this season they have already scored twice through four games from dead-ball situations.
Leicester have conceded the second most xG from dead-ball situations (2.14) and have already conceded via the set-piece route, so I'm keen to back both Everton centre-backs TO SCORE ANYTIME, as I'd be sick if I just backed one and the other scored.
JAMES TARKOWSKI and MICHAEL KEANE have both had five shots each through four games, highlighting their threat, with Keane finding the net already against Bournemouth.
- CLICK HERE to back Michael Keane to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back James Tarkowski to score anytime with Sky Bet
Keane also scored once last season in limited game time, while Tarkowski found the net once but had 25 shots and 2.6 xG. Both should get a chance or two here, so let's hope they can convert. You never know, maybe they both score...
Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 8/1
Liverpool looked excellent in midweek at Milan, dominating that game despite going behind early. This looks a tough test on paper, but I feel as though the Reds will have enough to beat Bournemouth's press - the Cherries likely to set-up differently to Nottingham Forest last week.
Forest were happy to frustrate and counter, whereas I think Bournemouth will play on the front foot. Andoni Iraola had success against the big boys in Spain playing that way, but hasn't so far in England. Against the top six last season the Cherries lost 10 of 12, conceding 33 times.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Tottenham vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/15 | Draw 7/2 | Away 4/1
There are two angles I want to attack in this match, a game I think could be very problematic for Tottenham.
The first is Spurs corners. We had great success last weekend backing them as outsiders to win most corners, this week we pivot to back TOTTENHAM 8+ CORNERS at even money.
Ange Postecoglou's side racked up seven against Arsenal last weekend, but through four games this season have hit a league high 44 (11 per game on average) with this bet landing in their first three matches. Their style is conducive to winning corners, pressing high and getting the ball to the by-line.
The clincher for this bet? Brentford have conceded the most corners in the league so far (36), allowing nine per game.
Given Spurs' start to the season, this is must-win to ease some pressure, meaning we really should expect an onslaught. Backing a few higher lines appeals too, so we'll have smaller stakes on TOTTENHAM 10+ CORNERS at 11/4 and TOTTENHAM 12+ CORNERS at 15/2.
- CLICK HERE to back Tottenham 10+ corners with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Tottenham 12+ corners with Sky Bet
Tottenham have hit both higher lines in three of four games this season, the exception being the North London derby, while Brentford allowed 12 corners last week at Manchester City.
The second angle is to back a Brentford centre-back goalscorer. Tottenham's set-piece issue is real, and shows no sign of being resolved. Gabriel Maghalhaes scored the winner last weekend from a corner, and became the sixth centre-back this calendar year (23 competitive games) to find the back of the net.
Trevoh Chalobah, Fabian Schar, Kurt Zouma, Jarrad Branthwaite and Nathan Ake have all taken advantage of Spurs' issue, and Brentford will certainly be targeting this avenue on Saturday.
Since the start of last season, only Everton have generated more xG from set-pieces than Brentford, so it's worth a small punt on two players who have looked very threatening this season.
NATHAN COLLINS has had five shots in four games, hitting the target in three matches and averaging 0.15 xG per 90, and ETHAN PINNOCK was a huge danger at the Etihad, taking three shots and forcing Ederson into two tremendous saves. Backing both to SCORE ANYTIME at 16/1 and 22/1 appeals.
- CLICK HERE to back Nathan Collins to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Ethan Pinnock to score anytime with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
This is another very tricky game to call. The most recent meeting saw Palace wallop United 4-0, though this should obviously be much closer than that.
I want to focus on the newest Red Devil, MANUEL UGARTE.
He looks to be the player they have been crying out for. A destroyer with an engine who can plug the gaping holes that we've witnessed over the last season and a bit.
He's made two appearances so far for United, a 17-minute cameo against Southampton and a 63-minute run out against Barnsley. His stat lines were eye-catching in both.
Versus the Saints he made two tackles in his limited game time, and against Barnsley he committed six fouls in just over an hour. I think there could be some value in combining the two player prop lines in a BuildABet this weekend.
We can back UGARTE TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS AND MAKE 3+ TACKLES at 5/6, which looks like a slice of value.
Last season at PSG, Ugarte 4.56 tackles and 2.14 fouls per 90. The season before at Sporting Lisbon he averaged 4.64 tackles and 2.45 fouls per 90. The season before he averaged 3.66 tackles and 2.76 fouls per 90.
We only need him to hit his historic averages here for a winner, and the early signs suggest he's more than up to the challenge at United.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 3/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away 10/3
As discussed numerous times in this column, Brighton's deepest-lying midfielder is being asked to do an awful lot.
The last time we looked into this angle was ahead of their trip to Arsenal, where we tipped up Billy Gilmour TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS only for him to be sold to Napoli, before pivoting to CARLOS BALEBA, who duly obliged by landing the bet.
I think at even-money we can go back in again this weekend. The same bet is 1/2 in places.
Baleba only committed one foul last weekend against Ipswich, but made three tackles, and he also made three tackles against Arsenal, just highlighting the defensive workload he has been getting through.
Baleba likely comes directly up against the tricky Morgan Gibbs-White here, only enhancing the chances of the bet landing. Forest are the fifth most fouled team in the league this season as well, and the style match-up of Brighton dominating possession and Forest playing on the counter only gets me more excited about this bet.
Though, having said all this, with my luck backing Brighton midfielders this season, Fabian Hurzeler probably drops Baleba for a now fit-again Mats Wieffer, or plays both with it being Wieffer in the defensive role.
Keep an eye on team news, as if Baleba isn't starting, cash out and back his replacement (likely Wieffer who came on for 30 mins in midweek).
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 4
- Liverpool 3-1 Bournemouth
- Tottenham 2-1 Brentford
- Aston Villa 3-1 Wolves
- C Palace 2-2 Man Utd
- Brighton 1-1 N Forest
- Man City 0-0 Arsenal
Odds correct at 1045 BST (20/09/24)
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