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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 4
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 38.5pts | Returned 37.77pts | P/L -0.73pts | ROI -1.9%
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Wolves to commit 14+ fouls vs Newcastle (16:30) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/20
We've got to the final game of the weekend and I haven't yet mentioned the word FOULS. Don't worry, I am ok, I'm not having a breakdown, there just hasn't been value in that particular market.
That is until now, with the price available for WOLVES 14+ FOULS COMMITTED simply too good to turn down in this particular match-up.
This one isn't rocket science. So far this season Wolves have committed the joint-second-most fouls in the Premier League (45), while Newcastle are the most fouled team in the top flight through three games (48).
Both of those stats are trends that have continued from last season, where Wolves made the second most fouls over their first campaign under Gary O'Neil (476) and Newcastle were the third most fouled team (469).
It therefore looks like a match made in heaven this weekend, with a high-pressing, high-intensity, aggressive Wolves team take on an illusive, direct and intricate set of Newcastle players.
This bet would have won in two of both sides three games this season, with Wolves fresh off an 18 foul game against Nottingham Forest, while Newcastle's last away game saw a Bournemouth team with a similar approach to Wolves foul them 20 times.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing higher lines, with 15+ available at 13/8 on Betfair and Paddy Power, 16+ available at 5/2 with the same firms and 17+ at 4/1 with Sky Bet. The ladder could pay off in this one.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 4
- Manchester City 3-1 Brentford
- Liverpool 2-0 Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa 2-0 Everton
- Bournemouth 2-1 Chelsea
- Tottenham 1-1 Arsenal
- Wolves 1-2 Newcastle
Already advised
1pt Kyle Walker-Peters 1+ shot on target in Soton vs Man Utd (12:30) at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Omari Hutchinson 1+ shot on target in Brighton vs Ipswich (15:00) at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Adam Wharton 2+ total shots in Palace vs Leicester (15:00) at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Adam Wharton 1+ shot on target in Palace vs Leicester (15:00) at 2/1 (bet365)
2pts Tomas Soucek 2+ total shots in Fulham vs West Ham (15:00) at evens (Sky Bet)
2pts Both teams to score in Man City vs Brentford (15:00) at evens (BoyleSports)
1.5pts Iliman Ndiaye 3+ tackles in Aston Villa vs Everton (17:30) at 7/5 (SpreadEx)
1pt Bournemouth to win (Draw no Bet) vs Chelsea (20:00) at 8/5 (Unibet)
2.5pts Tottenham most corners vs Arsenal (14:00) at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Tottenham 8+ corners vs Arsenal (14:00) at 11/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
We are back. After an untimely hiatus – how on earth can you break after three matches – top flight football returns this Saturday with some tasty looking match-ups, none more so than Sunday's North London derby.
The final column before the international break saw us net +4.18pts profit thanks to a couple of fouls bets and some centre-back shot bets, getting us back on track after a horror matchday two.
We are still only slightly in the red for the season, but that's nothing to be too concerned about as we are still coming to grips with teams, managers, tactics and players in the new campaign.
Southampton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/2 | Draw 29/10 | Away 4/6
Southampton have been predictably poor so far this season, and so have Manchester United. That makes picking this game tough. If United play similarly to how they did against Fulham, the result could be a formality. But that's a big if.
Instead, the bet I'm drawn to is similar to the one I put up before the international break, backing KYLE WALKER-PETERS 1+ SHOT ON TARGET.
Before the break we were on KWP to take two shots at Brentford. He managed just one, but did find the target with it.
So far this season he has been Saints' biggest attacking threat, averaging 2.07 shots per game from wing-back and firing two shots on target in three outings.
Given what we have seen from him so far, the positions he picks up and his willingness to pull the trigger, plus the likely ball dominance of Southampton, I expected to see around 2/1 here, but we are getting a standout 4/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power, with bet365 5/2. It's as short as 13/8 in places.
United aren't conceding quite as many shots as last season, but they've still been leaky (10, 14, 11), and the only time KWP has played at St. Mary's this season he fired three shots and one on target. More of the same please, Kyle.
Score prediction: Southampton 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Brighton vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 13/2
I fully expect Brighton to continue their hot start to the season by beating Ipswich, but I'm surprised to see 6/4 about one of the Tractor Boys' key men having 1+ SHOT ON TARGET here.
I am talking about OMARI HUTCHINSON, who has seen this bet land in two out of three games so far, only failing when Ipswich travelled to Manchester City.
Hutchinson is 4/6 in places, and given he will be playing in the no.10 position, I like his chances of testing Brighton's goalkeeper given the space the Seagulls will likely leave on the break.
In the Championship last season he averaged 1.24 shots on target per 90, with this bet landing in 13 of 20 starts.
Score prediction: Brighton 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Fulham vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/4
We were on TOMAS SOUCEK to make a couple of fouls in West Ham's last game before the break, only for the Czechia international not to start, meaning a void bet.
I'm going to pivot to a different prop market for this weekend's match against Fulham, with Soucek's price to attempt 2+ TOTAL SHOTS appealing at even money. For you lucky people who have a QuinnBet account, there is 23/20 available there.
He managed a shot in that City game despite playing just 13 minutes, and Soucek had been a constant threat in the Hammers' two opening matches before that.
Five shots against Aston Villa and three shots, including a goal, at Crystal Palace, the Czechia man is getting into advanced areas under Julen Lopetegui.
He also obviously carries a huge threat from set-pieces too and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 5/1 to score anytime, especially given Fulham conceded from a corner against Leicester in their last home game.
The only doubt is whether or not he starts given he was on the bench against City, though I think that was due to Lopetegui wanting a bit more solidity (which worked well) with Edson Alvarez and Guido Rodriguez. I expect Soucek to come in here given this is a game the Hammers will be looking to play on the front foot.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Crystal Palace vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 17/4
It would be a huge surprise were Leicester to get a result here, but their approach won't be a surprise. They will sit deep and attempt to stay in the game, frustrate Crystal Palace and limit space for their flair players.
That could mean ADAM WHARTON continues his trend of shooting from distance, with his prices to take 2+ TOTAL SHOTS and 1+ SHOT ON TARGET appealing.
- CLICK HERE to back Adam Wharton 2+ total shots with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Adam Wharton 1+ shot on target with Sky Bet
Eberechi Eze is averaging five shots per 90 this season and his price has taken a huge hit, with William Hill going 3/4, yet Adam Wharton's shooting upturn has gone under the radar somewhat.
Wharton took just 10 shots across all of last season, a per 90 average of 0.69. This season he has already fired half of that tally in just three games, with his average up to 1.77 per 90.
He has had a shot in all three games, firing three against a deep-lying Brentford, and has hit the target with three of his five attempts (1.07 per 90). All of his shots have come from outside the area.
Leicester so far this season have conceded a lot of shots to deeper midfielders. Against Tottenham, Pape Sarr took one from distance and Rodrigo Bentancur had three attempts with one on target. Andreas Pereira had two shots from range for Fulham, while Amadou Onana had three attempts and hit the target (one from range).
Palace are very attacking under Oliver Glasner at Selhurst Park, with a great record (W5, D1, L2), netting 22 times in eight contests, firing an average of 16 shots and 6.1 shots on target. Expect to see similar stat lines on Saturday, and let's hope Wharton contributes to those figures.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Manchester City vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Away 11/1
Can Brentford keep Erling Haaland at bay? The Norwegian has fired seven goals in three games, and is searching for a third straight hat-trick. We might be close to an early payout in the Golden Boot market.
Thomas Frank's side did the double of City in 22/23, and the way in which they set up can cause their hosts problems. Believe it or not, City concede a lot at the Etihad, and Brentford have the tools to exploit their relative weakness.
Since the start of last season, BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE has landed in 14 of 20 matches at the Etihad – a 70% click rate – so an even-money price here looks huge.
Pep's side are creating chances in abundance but continue to look vulnerable defensively, and while Rodri is set to return, I think Brentford have enough to find the net.
They did so in 14 of 19 away games last season, despite having a major injury crisis, and while they were shutout at Anfield, the Bees did create plenty of opportunities.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/4
Jurgen who? Any doubts around Arne Slot being the David Moyes to Klopp's Sir Alex Ferguson can be put to bed. The Dutchman really has put his stamp on this Liverpool team, and he has the Reds looking much more controlled yet still packing a serious punch.
Nottingham Forest won't be an easy out, starting the season very well under Nuno Espirito Santo, but Liverpool at Anfield is the toughest of tasks, especially now they look more secure at the back.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Aston Villa vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 5/1
This one could be tasty. Aston Villa are a front-foot, aggressive football team and Everton are desperate after a shocking start to the season.
The gulf in quality between the two teams could well shine through, with Villa winning comfortably, but I'm going to lean into the fact I think this is going to be physical, with ILIMAN NDIAYE 3+ TACKLES looking an interesting way in.
It was a surprise to see him not start either of Everton's openers, but he made a statement when given the nod against Doncaster in the Carabao Cup, and followed that up with another impressive display against Bournemouth.
He is an aggressive presser and loves a tackle, happy to get down and dirty.
Ndiaye came on for 27 minutes against Brighton and made three tackles, he came on for 33 minutes against Tottenham and made four tackles, and he hit that mark again when starting last time out.
He can do it again here, especially with the Toffees likely sitting deep, with Ndiaye being one of the only high pressers in the side.
The 7/5 on offer with SpreadEx is huge, and the evens with Sky Bet is still excellent. I'd make this odds on. 4+ tackles is 29/10 with William Hill for those wanting a higher line.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Bournemouth vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/4 | Draw 14/5 | Away evens
Chelsea are tough to get a handle on yet again this season, but Bournemouth aren't. We know exactly what we are going to get from Andoni Iraola's side, and I think they are worth backing to win this game in the DRAW NO BET market.
The Cherries were impressive in their home game against Newcastle, being unfortunate to only draw, while their comeback against Everton was stunning.
Bournemouth have created plenty so far this term and can really test a vulnerable Chelsea defence.
In their only away game so far this season, while the Blues won 6-2 at Wolves, they shipped a huge 1.96 xGA. They continue to look dysfunctional, the opposite of Bournemouth, and it's worth a small bet on the Cherries coming out on top.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Tottenham vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 15/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/4
Is this must-win for Arsenal? Or just must-not-lose?
I say that because, after drawing with Brighton, the Gunners find themselves two points behind Manchester City already, and defeat here (coupled with a likely City win over Brentford) would see them fall five behind while a draw sees them four back.
You may think 'it's very early in the season to be talking about that', and I generally agree, but with Arsenal facing City next weekend – plus a Thursday night Champions League game – it could be a disastrous fortnight should things go against them.
Spurs have shown positive signs, but results haven't followed, meaning this is a big game for them too, as they bid to not slip further off the top four pace.
But the fact Arsenal are missing such key players for this game has me wanting to make a pro-Tottenham play. The Gunners' creator-in-chief Martin Odegaard is expected to miss out, while their physical box-to-box enforcer Declan Rice is suspended.
Can we trust Spurs to win though, that's the question. I personally don't, but without those two players Arsenal are vulnerable, and will probably sink deeper and be under even more pressure than usual, which could lead to CORNERS.
Spurs have so far been the corner kings of the Premier League, taking 13 more than any other side through three games. That's obscene.
An average of 12.3 per game is very high, and granted they've had a kind-ish schedule, but their style of play is conducive to winning spot-kicks.
They win the ball high up the pitch, and get the ball wide looking to get to the by-line. Without Rice and Odegaard, I think Spurs will have plenty of joy winning the ball in the final third and creating wave after wave of pressure on an admittedly stubborn Arsenal defence.
TOTTENHAM TO WIN MOST CORNERS looks a huge price here at around 6/4 and should be snapped up. Spurs should be favoured in this market, and this is a bet that won in home games against all of the top four last season.
They've hit 13, 12 and 12 so far this term, winning the count in all three, with the latter away at Newcastle a really impressive figure.
Last season in this fixture, Spurs managed eight corners. While you may shout 'yeah, but factor in game state as Spurs were 3-0 down in the first half' - I thought the same initially - Tottenham in fact mustered five corners in the first half when getting battered, and went on to win the count comfortably.
Even with a full complement, Arsenal have managed only 12 corners in three games this season.
It could also pay dividends to have a smaller stake bet on Spurs to cover a high corner line, with 8+ TOTTENHAM CORNERS a bet too at 11/2.
Obviously they have hit this line in all three matches so far, and the last head-to-head, and given this Arsenal team will be missing two of it's best players, this could be a good way to get Spurs onside as they attempt to swarm their bitter rivals.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1030 BST (13/09/24)
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