- Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 424pts | Returned 450.01pts | P/L +26.01pts | ROI 6%
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 4.5 goals and Marc Cucurella 1+ total shot in Chelsea vs Ipswich (14:00) at 6/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Marc Cucurella to score anytime in Chelsea vs Ipswich (14:00) at 10/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Jarrod Bowen to win 2+ fouls in Liverpool vs West Ham (14:00) at 10/11 (Betfair)
1.5pts Matheus Cunha 2+ shots on target in Wolves vs Tottenham (14:00) at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Tino Livramento 1+ total shot in Newcastle vs Man Utd (16:30) at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
It was nearly a sweep for the column last weekend, well a sweep of the serious bets anyway. Who actually thought Southampton would beat Spurs? Silly me.
Only Manchester City let us down, but how were we supposed to know that the two Manchester clubs shook hands on a boring goalless draw before a ball was kicked, eh.
Anyway, it was nice to get a profitable week, with the final total +4.99pts for gameweek 31. If last week was strong fancies on traditional markets, this week is the opposite. The slate looks tricky from the 1X2 and the goal totals, so instead we'll focus on players, with goalscorers in particular appealing.
Chelsea vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 9/1
'Boing, boring Chelsea.'
That was the case again last weekend when drawing 0-0 with Brentford, a game they again struggled to create chances and one in which Enzo Maresca was on the end of some pelters for resting key players ahead of a Conference League game.
The Blues won that game at a canter in midweek meaning the second leg is a dead rubber, so we should see the hosts field their strongest XI here, which means they should get back to winning ways.
I tipped win to nil in Poland at 9/5, but the same bet is 11/8 this weekend, a tad short for me.
But given the Blues' creative issues having fully adopted Maresca-ball, and their solid defence thanks to the risk-averse approach, I want to oppose goals yet again. Under 2.5 goals was tempting at 9/5 (Betfair), as was a repeat of last weeks Under 3.0 Asian Goals at 21/20 (bet365), but instead I'll get creative and combine UNDER 4.5 GOALS with MARC CUCURELLA 1+ TOTAL SHOT for a 6/5 selection.
All of Chelsea's last 15 games in all competitions have gone under 4.5 goals, with the last time there were five or more goals in a Chelsea game coming at home to League Two Morecambe in the FA Cup. That's a nice place to start, and we get an odds-against price by adding a Cucurella shot.
The Spaniard has delivered at least one shot in 11 of his last 15 league starts as he has been given more license to get into scoring positions.
He took two shots at home to Leicester and scored, hit one shot at home to Southampton and scored and also had one shot at home to Wolves and scored, meaning he's netted at home against all of the current bottom four.
Cucu is 10/1 to complete the set of scoring against the bottom four, so I have to have a small nibble on CUCURELLA TO SCORE ANYTIME too. He's scored four times in total over the aforementioned last 15 starts, so the price is simply massive based on that record alone.
Ipswich are a leaky defensive side, especially away from home, conceding 29 in 15, so Chelsea should get a couple of goals in a comfortable and controlled home win. Though don't be surprised if it's less comfortable on the scoreline, with this new version of Chelsea very happy to control and win 1-0.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Liverpool vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 2/7 | Draw 9/2 | Away 8/1
Liverpool's wobbly end to the season continued last week when losing 3-2 at Fulham, though even a few more defeats shouldn't be enough to stop them lifting the title. They are easy to oppose this weekend at the prices, especially with West Ham a potentially awkward opponent.
The bet I'm drawn to is JARROD BOWEN TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 10/11.
Bowen is incredibly tricky and has been on a foul drawing frenzy since Graham Potter took charge, with the new manager giving Bowen freedom to drift into various areas and get on the ball before attempting to drive past opponents.
In his eight league starts under Potter, Bowen has been fouled 2+ times in all of them, averaging 2.38 fouls won per 90, and I think it's well worth backing that run to continue here against a somewhat out of sorts and potentially vulnerable Liverpool side.
The likes of Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch will have their hands full dealing with Bowen, as will both centre-halves.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Wolves vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 2/1
Tottenham beat Southampton last weekend but not only do they face a tougher game this weekend, but this match comes sandwiched between a massive Europa League tie.
After drawing at home to Frankfurt in the first leg, Spurs are now outsiders to qualify for the semi-finals, so we should expect Ange to rest all of his star players here, and that, combined with Wolves being on good form and the return of MATHEUS CUNHA is why the hosts are 5/4 to win the game.
That's a bit short for me, even if the Old Gold have won three straight and five if their last eight league matches, and Spurs have lost nine of 15 away this term.
Instead, at 13/10, I'll back the already mentioned CUNHA to hit 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET on his return to the team.
The Brazilian is Wolves' talisman, and he's been absent for their last four games through suspension. He'll be looking to provide a bang on his return, and given everything Wolves do in attack revolves around him, he should get ample opportunity to affect this game.
More importantly, he'll pull the trigger a lot, just as he likes to do when playing at Molineux. In his last five league starts in front of his own fans he's taken 21 shots with 13 hitting the target.
He's covered the 2+ shots on target in all five, and against some tough opponents too - Arsenal, Aston Villa and Fulham, as well as the not so tough Ipswich and Manchester United.
I fully expect him to want to make a statement here, and against a leaky and much-changed Spurs side, he should be able to do just that. I wouldn't put anyone off backing him to have 3+ shots on target too at 4/1 (bet365, BF and PP).
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Newcastle vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 8/13 | Draw 3/1 | Away 19/5
Newcastle are in with a great chance of securing a top five finish, and with it Champions League football, but have to win games like this. Manchester United sit in the bottom half of the table and this game comes in the middle of a Europa League quarter-final, so looks an ideal opportunity for the Magpies.
The market agrees, with the hosts 4/6 to get the win, but that looks short especially given the defence-first approach we have seen Ruben Amorim deploy in recent Premier League games, saving the expansive style for games on the continent.
That set up could see Newcastle frustrated for long periods here, forced into shots from distance, making the 9/4 about TINO LIVRAMENTO 1+ TOTAL SHOT look massive. The same bet is 5/6 in places.
The logic is that with Lewis Hall injured and Matt Targett not fancied, Livramento has been playing at left back, so naturally wants to cut inside onto his favoured right foot.
Stats-wise, he's not the most prolific shooter, but has taken a shot in two of his last three starts at left-back, and that's enough encouragement for me given how I expect this game to flow.
United will sit in and look to counter, which should lead to plenty of attempts from an attack-minded home team, and let's hope Tino pulls the trigger for us. I was close to tipping him to take 2+ shots at a huge 14/1 (Sky Bet), with the same bet 4/1 in places, but he's only ever had one game of 2+ shots in his career to date, so we'll stick to the one.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Already advised
1.5pts Nico Gonzalez 2+ fouls committed in Man City vs Palace (12:30) at evens (Betfair, bet365)
1pt Yankuba Minteh to score anytime in Brighton vs Leicester (15:00) at 2/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Neco Williams to be carded in Forest vs Everton (15:00) at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Donyell Malen to score anytime in Southampton vs Villa (15:00) at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mikkel Damsgaard 1+ assist in Arsenal vs Brentord (17:30) at 13/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 19/4
Hopefully, last weeks Manchester derby is forgotten fast. We need a quick start here to banish those awful memories in a game where City have to win.
Pep's side enter the weekend in sixth, outside the top five which will see Champions League football, meaning they have it all to do.
They'll be at it from the off here, likely playing with a much greater intensity, and that could see plenty of fouls.
NICO GONZALEZ is even money TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS and that'll do for me.
The Spaniard has been playing as a solo holding midfielder for City when starting, meaning he is tasked with putting out fires and winning the ball back, and it's led to him landing this bet in all of his last four starts.
On Saturday he'll be up against Palace's slippery pair Eberechi Eze and Ismaila Sarr and both will test him, while the Eagles have always been an excellent transitional team against City.
Eze in particular could have a big game as he looks to impress having been linked with a summer move to the Etihad.
And, let's not forget that this could be the FA Cup final, so competition for a psychological advantage could be big too, so we should expect a good competitive game.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Brighton vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 9/1
Leicester are downright bad. They are going down with a big whimper, and on Monday broke a Premier League record for most home defeats in a row without scoring.
Brighton have dropped off after exiting the FA Cup and need a huge bounce back here to get their European hopes back on track. They should get the win, but are too short to trust, and with the win to nil priced at a paltry 11/10, I'm heading to the player markets.
The Foxes have conceded a lot of goals in their last 17 league games, a huge 42 goals, but there has been a trend with opposition right wingers scoring regularly.
Indeed, the right winger has scored in 10 of those 17 contests, with Jacob Murphy scoring a brace most recently, so I'll chance YANKUBA MINTEH TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The Gambian has scored five times this season in limited minutes, with his goals per 90 average standing at 0.34. His xG per 90 is at a solid enough 0.22, and so given the Foxes' record of conceding goals to right wingers - usually through the left-winger cutting balls across the box - I'll chance Minteh at 2/1 in a game where Brighton are 4/11 to score twice and 6/5 to score three.
Indeed, he did score in the reverse at the King Power when coming on as a substitute.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Nottingham Forest vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/5
Nottingham Forest's form against bottom half teams is remarkable this season, winning 13 of an unbeaten 14.
That has me wanting to back them here at odds against, but Everton just haven't been losing matches under David Moyes. The Toffees have lost just two of his 12 league games in charge, drawing six of their last eight, so I'll swerve the home win.
Instead, with Ola Aina injured, NECO WILLIAMS's price TO BE CARDED looks big with him set to play at right-back, directly opposing the tricky Iliman Ndiaye.
Williams will have his hands full with a player who attempts on average 5.36 dribbles per 90 and has drawn 2.00 fouls per 90 this season.
The Welshman has five cards to his name already this term at an average of 0.23 per 90, so the 9/2 seems large, especially with the referee appointment.
Craig Pawson has averaged 4.66 cards per game in the Premier League this season, and heads to the City Ground fresh off a 10-card game last week.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Southampton vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 9/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 1/2
Southampton were a waste of time this season weren't they, and ironically they probably should have just stuck it out with Russell Martin, who not only would have probably collected more points than Ivan Juric did during his spell, but would leave them in a good position to bounce straight back up from the Championship.
Anyway, Juric is gone and that could loosen the shackles a little and could see Saints players enjoy their football which could see them spring some surprise results. That's enough to put me off a pro-Villa angle in the 1X2, especially with heavy rotation likely, but that rotation could provide some value in the form of DONYELL MALEN.
The Dutchman, signed from Dortmund in January, isn't included in Villa's Champions League squad so should start here, making his price TO SCORE ANYTIME look massive. He's 11/4 with Sky Bet yet 13/8 in places.
We are working off extremely limited minutes, Malen playing just 233 mins in the Premier League, but he has scored in both of his last two appearances, and given he'll be in the forward line for a team chasing a top five finish against a side already relegated who have conceded 40 times in 15 home games, his price is too good to pass up in a game Villa need to win.
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Arsenal vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4
Arsenal were in dreamland in midweek, beating Real Madrid 3-0 at the Emirates, meaning they have one foot in the Champions League semi-finals. They head to the Bernabeu on Wednesday and that surely must be prioritised by Mikel Arteta over this weekend's game against Brentford.
The Gunners are 11 points behind Premier League leaders Liverpool with just 21 points left to play for, so the title is over, meaning there is no reason for Arteta to risk any of his stars here. Brace-scoring Declan Rice will be rested, as will Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli and possibly even William Saliba. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him make a full 11 changes...
That opens the door for Brentford to get a result, or at the very least a couple of goals. The market is moving with the visitors, who opened at 7/1 to win here but are now as short as 4/1 in places. That's a bit short for me, but there is value to be had in the prop markets.
MIKKEL DAMSGAARD is having an excellent season for Thomas Frank's side, sitting joint-second in the league standings for assists, and his price of 13/2 to register 1+ ASSIST here looks massive.
He hasn't registered an assist in his last five league outings but has been knocking on the door. Across those five games he's created 10 chances for his teammates equating to an xA total of 0.80.
Over the course of the season he's delivered a huge 10 assists for the Bees, running at an average of 0.22 xA and 2.12 chances created per 90, so against a heavily rotated Arsenal team, he looks overpriced to add another.
It's worth also mentioning that prior to a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle, Brentford had won five straight away games scoring 14 goals, so have been enjoying their travels of late, and won't fear a trip to the Emirates, where they have scored on all three visits since being promoted to the top flight.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 51
- N Forest 2-1 Everton
- Southampton 0-2 Aston Villa
- Arsenal 2-2 Brentford
- Chelsea 2-0 Ipswich
- Liverpool 2-1 West Ham
- Newcastle 2-0 Manchester United
Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1230 BST (11/04/25)
Sunday's 14:00 tips - odds correct at 1440 BST (11/04/25)
Sunday's 16:30 tips - odds correct at 1550 BST (11/04/25)
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