- Jake's Predictions: Staked 267.75pts | Returned 289.58pts | P/L +21.83pts | ROI 8%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Tuesday
1pt Yoane Wissa to score anytime in Brentford vs Man City (19:30) at 13/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365)
1.5pts Bournemouth or Draw (double chance) vs Chelsea (19:30) at 7/5 (Unibet)
2pts Fulham Draw no Bet vs West Ham (19:30) at 4/5 (William Hill)
1pt Alexis Mac Allister to be carded in Forest vs Liverpool (20:00) at 3/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded in Forest vs Liverpool (20:00) at 16/5 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Gibbs-White and Mac Allister to be carded in Forest vs Liverpool (20:00) at 15/1 (BetVictor)
Wednesday
2pts Crystal Palace to beat Leicester (19:30) at evens (Coral)
1pt Matt Doherty to commit 2+ fouls in Newcastle vs Wolves (19:30) at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime in Arsenal vs Spurs (20:00) at 13/2 (Boylesports)
***Thursday's tips to be added
The edition of this column was a mixed back that resulted in another losing week, eating into our profit.
We did land some nice winners though, with Bournemouth winning to nil against Everton at a big price, and being correct about Thomas Partey playing right back against Brighton, with the Ghanaian making the three required tackles only after Kaoru Mitoma came off the bench in the second half.
It was nice to have a bit of a week off last week, but I'm excited to get back to the meat and drink of Premier League football for a midweek round, with plenty of strong fancies across the three days.
Brentford vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 18/5 | Draw 7/2 | Away 4/7
This game looks to be a good barometer as to how to gauge City moving forward. That's because Brentford are a vulnerable defensive side who ship a lot of shots, but are a very good counter-attacking team that will test City's in-transition defending - their main issue over the last two months.
As it stands, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the three possible outcomes occurring here, so I'll sit out the win-draw-win market here.
The Bees should ask some serious questions of City, and put on a much better display than against a much more solid Arsenal team on New Year's Day.
At a price of 13/5, I've got to back YOANE WISSA TO SCORE ANYTIME ahead of the likes of Bryan Mbeumo (5/2) and Kevin Schade (9/2), though the latter looks on the large side too should he start.
That's because, despite Mbeumo leading the Bees in terms of goals (13), he is over performing at an unsustainable rate (6.3 xG), and on a game-to-game basis, is seeing fewer good chances fall his way than Wissa.
Wissa's xG per 90 of 0.57 ranks him in the top 10 of all Premier League players, level with Cole Palmer, and has him well clear of Mbeumo (0.37) and Schade (0.39), suggesting that his scoring spree is more sustainable than his teammates.
Add in the fact his record at home this season is sensational - scoring in six of eight and netting eight in total - and that he is averaging 2.86 shots, 1.58 shots on target and a huge 0.70 xG per 90 in front of his own fans, and he looks the pick of the Brentford bunch to score against a still vulnerable City backline.
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 4/7 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/1
Chelsea priced at 4/6 to win against a good side? No thanks. The Blues smashed Morecambe in the FA Cup but are winless in four in the league despite playing three of the current bottom six.
Worryingly, their process over those games has taken a down turn, averaging 1.55 xGF and 1.20 xGA per game despite a kind schedule, suggesting some issues for Enzo Maresca's side - issues discussed by Dharnish Iqbal.
BOURNEMOUTH are red-hot at the moment, and should be backed TO WIN OR DRAW at 7/5 in the DOUBLE CHANCE market.
The Cherries are unbeaten in eight league games, winning five of those, a run that has moved them to within three points of the Blues. Yep, the Cherries are that close to the top four.
They deserve to be that high too, as get this, Andoni Iraola's side sit third in the league for expected points (xP) and expected goal difference (xGD) - above Chelsea on both metrics.
Only Liverpool (17) have won the xG battle more than Bournemouth (16) this season, again highlighting their level.
Add in the fact that they have fared extremely well against good sides this season (W4 D2 L2 vs last season's top eight), and that they were comfortably the better team in the reverse game (xG: BOU 1.78 - 0.78 CHE), being unfortunate to lose, and the Cherries look a cracking bet to avoid defeat at Stamford Bridge and extend Chelsea's winless run - even without a striker.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing an away win at 22/5 too.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
West Ham vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 4
- Home 9/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/8
Yes, West Ham have a new manager, but said manager hasn't had an awful lot of time to work with his new players, and his best players are out injured. There may be no 'new manager bounce' here.
Graham Potter was beaten in the FA Cup on his debut, and now hosts a top side without any of Emerson, Jean-Clair Todibo, Crysencio Summerville, Michail Antonio, Jarrod Bowen and Niclas Fullkrug. Sheesh.
That has me rushing to back FULHAM here, but we'll take the DRAW NO BET given the amount of stalemates the Cottagers have played out recently.
Marco Silva's side are ninth in the table heading into this one, and are unbeaten in nine across all competitions, with six of those draws.
They are excellent travellers too, losing only two of nine road games, avoiding defeat Spurs and Liverpool while beating Nottingham Forest and Chelsea.
Fulham are one of only seven teams in the league to boast a positive xGD per game (+0.16) when travelling, while only Newcastle and Liverpool have won the xG battle more away from home than the Cottagers.
So, an in form side who's data is excellent, against an out of sorts team with a new manager and missing key players? Sign me up.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 4/1 | Draw 3/1 | Away 3/5
A title six-pointer at the City Ground. Who saw that coming in pre-season? If Forest beat Liverpool on Tuesday, they'll move to within three points of the Reds. Yikes.
The signs are there that such a drastic result could happen. Liverpool looked vulnerable against Manchester United and then were well off it against Tottenham last midweek, surprisingly firing a blank and racking up just 1.13 xG against a Spurs backline that had been porous.
Forest meanwhile have won seven straight games in all competitions, keeping clean sheets in all of their last five. I could definitely see the upset here, but given Joe Townsend has already put up Forest or Draw and the Under 2.5 goals in his match preview, I'll look elsewhere for a bet.
Instead, with the stakes fairly high and a good referee appointment in Chris Kavanagh (5.31 cards per game this season), I'll throw a few darts at player cards.
The main angle I want to exploit is that of Morgan Gibbs-White and his contribution to drawing cards. The Englishman has started 16 league games this season and an opposing midfielder has been carded in 14 of them.
I don't think it's a coincidence. Gibbs-White is excellent at drawing fouls, and they are usually cynical ones, with him bursting past opponents or, occasionally, milking contact. He is a master of the old housery.
So, I'll chance Liverpool midfielder ALEXIS MAC ALLISTER TO BE CARDED at 3/1.
Mac Allister has been carded five times in the league and three times in the Champions League this term, meaning a cards per 90 average of 0.40, and a fouls per 90 of 1.93 across those competitions. Based on those figures, I'd make him a bet down to 2/1.
I'll also back the aforementioned GIBBS-WHITE TO BE CARDED at 16/5, as well as the GIBBS-WHITE AND MAC ALLISTER DOUBLE at 15/1.
- CLICK HERE to back Morgan Gibbs-White to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Mac Allister and Gibbs-White to be carded with Sky Bet
Gibbs-White gives as good as he gets every single match, and has been carded in five matches this season, being sent off once at Brighton.
His 0.36 cards per 90 makes anything down to the 2/1 marker also good value in my book, with the English midfielder committing 1.71 fouls per 90 but more than capable of picking up a card for dissent, diving or even getting involved in an altercation.
Let's hope the pair decide to kick each other on Tuesday.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Everton vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 2
- Home 21/10 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/10
It's all change at Everton, with the Toffees jumping in a time machine back to the 00's to reappoint David Moyes.
From Sean Dyche, to David Moyes. I can't say I'd be over the moon if I was an Everton fan. His first job back is to keep this current side in the Premier League, and their home form is key to that.
The Toffees have been tough to beat in their last season at Goodison Park, losing three of nine and just one of the last seven. The problem is they've only won twice.
Aston Villa aren't great travellers, losing five of nine, and so with uncertainty around the hosts' team news under new management, and the visitors form on the road, I'll sit this one out from a betting perspective.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Leicester vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 4
- Home 11/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/11
Leicester are in desperate need of a result, and this is a pretty big game for their survival chances. Fresh off five straight league defeats, the Foxes now host a Palace side sixth from bottom.
Since Ruud van Nistelrooy took charge, Leicester have collected the third fewest expected points per game (0.68), generated the third lowest xGF per game (0.88) and allowed the third most xGA per game (2.08).
Palace meanwhile have turned a corner, and are surging clear of the relegation battle. They have lost just two of their last 12 league games, picking up results against everyone bar Arsenal and Fulham.
I think their price of even money is well worth investing in on Wednesday, making CRYSTAL PALACE TO WIN the bet here.
Across the last eight league games, Oliver Glasner's side have ranked as the sixth best side in the top flight on both expected points and expected goal difference, highlighting that we could see a finish similar to last season, when they snook into the top half.
The Eagles are nearly fully fit too, and I suspect they will simply be too good on the night for the struggling Foxes. In terms of the price, I think Palace are at a similar level to Brighton, who went off at 8/11 to win at the King Power not so long ago.
Add in the fact that they have a 100% record against promoted teams this season, and I fancy them to add to Leicester's woes.
Score prediction: Leicester 0-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Newcastle vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 3
- Home 1/3 | Draw 17/4 | Away 13/2
Newcastle really are flying at the moment. They've won eight straight in all competitions, taking down all of Aston Villa, Man Utd, Spurs and Arsenal in that run.
Not an ideal time for Wolves to head to Tyneside, then. Vitor Pereira's side were thumped 3-0 by Nottingham Forest in their last league game, highlighting that, while improvements have been made under his guidance, the Old Gold are still vulnerable.
I fully expect the hosts to win, and for Alexander Isak to score (4/5) in the process, but have found a bet at a bigger price I want to chance.
With Wolves light on numbers at the back MATT DOHERTY has been selected for for every game since the start of December, and he'll be tasked with handling Newcastle's excellent left sided trio of Anthony Gordon, Joelinton and the overlapping Lewis Hall, meaning his 7/4 price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS is worth a pop.
The Irishman has been playing as a right centre-back of late, but that doesn't deter me, as this game is likely to get stretched and leave him in some uncomfortable 1v1 situations.
Since coming into the line up he's averaged 1.54 fouls per 90, a healthy starting point for the bet, which is then bolstered by Gordon's (2.48), Joelinton's (1.07) and Hall's (0.96) fouls won per 90 stats.
Likely supported at right wing back by the inexperienced Rodrigo Gomes, Doherty could be left in some tricky positions at St. James' Park.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Arsenal vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 6/1
This is a massive game for Arsenal's season. Out of the FA Cup, 2-0 down in the Carabao Cup semi-final and six points behind leaders Liverpool heading into this round of Premier League fixtures.
Lose here and their domestic season could be completely over, and the pressure on Mikel Arteta will continue to mount, though I'm sure he'd find something to blame it on; the referee, wait he's used that one, maybe the ball, oh wait he's used that one too, perhaps the length of the grass on the pitch this time...
I do think they'll get the win here though. I think they will be just too powerful for this Tottenham team, and continue to show a real defensive steel that means they can keep nearly any team in the land at arms length.
While issues continue in terms of open-play chance creation, the Gunners continue to be extremely reliable at creating chances and scoring from set-pieces, so I think we have to attack that angle again here.
GABRIEL MAGALHAES scored again at the weekend and I'll happily back him at 13/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME again here. He's as short as 4/1 in places.
The Brazilian has five goals in 23 games this season, boasts a goals per 90 of 0.26 and an xG per 90 of 0.17 across all competitions. He's a huge problem.
That xG figure ranks him as the league's biggest centre-back goal threat, while the 0.17 figure puts him alongside Dejan Kulusevski and ahead of a number of forward players - the likes of Marcus Rashford, Alex Iwobi, Joelinton, Hwang Hee-Chan to name a few.
Given the way Arsenal are finishing currently, he may well be the Gunners' biggest attacking threat...
As mentioned, he scored at the weekend against Manchester United, from a set-piece, and the Red Devils are one of only three teams worst at defending dead-ball situations than Spurs this season.
Ange Postecoglou's side continue to look vulnerable from corners and free-kicks, especially without Christian Romero and Micky Van de Ven, though even those two couldn't stop Gabriel in the reverse game as he netted the only goal of the game.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 30
- Brentford 2-1 Manchester City
- Chelsea 1-2 Bournemouth
- Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool
- Everton 1-1 Aston Villa
- Newcastle 3-1 Wolves
- Arsenal 1-0 Tottenham
Tuesday's bets - Odds correct at 1530 (13/01/25)
Wednesday's bets - Odds correct at 1710 (13/01/25)
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