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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 2
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 10.5pts | Returned 11.59pts | P/L +1.09pts | ROI 10.3%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday
1.5pt Adam Smith to commit 2+ fouls in Bournemouth vs Newcastle (14:00) at 2/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Liverpool to commit 13+ fouls vs Brentford (16:30) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Ben Brereton Diaz's 'drop to the floor at the slightest touch' antics had me fearing the worst last weekend, with his, shall we call it gamesmanship, leading to a Newcastle red card.
Down to 10-men, our Alexander Isak anytime (and brace) bets had a thin chance of landing and thus threatening to kick the season off with a loss.
But Sunday's foul bets rescued us, putting us in profit for GW1. Fortunately for all you readers, as you can see by Saturday's staking plan, it's once again the foul markets that have me excited.
Apologies for the perhaps boringly familiar bets being put up, but ultimately we want to make money, and at this stage of the season, I feel as though we are still learning about teams' capabilities meaning there will likely be few bets from main markets.
Anyway, lets hope for a very foul weekend - on the pitch that is.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 2/1 | Draw 13/5 | Away 23/20
I was initially going to back something Bruno Guimaraes related in this game after he was fouled six times against Southampton, but his prices are short enough, and I've found something much more appetising.
ADAM SMITH looks set to be in for a tough afternoon should he start, coming up against the dynamic Anthony Gordon, and his price of 2/1 to COMMIT 2+ FOULS leapt off the page to me.
Again, the caveat here is that we need him to start. He started last weekend but was subbed after 63 minutes, though similar game time this week should see this bet go close.
That's because Anthony Gordon is one of the Premier League's best foul drawers. His pace and directness is a nightmare for opponents, and led to him being fouled 2.08 times per 90. He was fouled four times in Newcastle's opener, too.
Last time Smith faced Newcastle he made four fouls, and given the style of Andoni Iraola's side - and Eddie Howe's - we should see plenty of high-pressing and fouls on Sunday.
Just keep an eye on team news, as there is a chance Smith doesn't start, in which case cash out the bet.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Liverpool vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 2/9 | Draw 11/2 | Away 9/1
Liverpool looked good in the second half against Ipswich, playing a bit more controlled under Arne Slot. That control came from a suffocating high and forceful press that, while it worked, lead to a lot of fouls.
In total, the Reds committed 18 fouls against Ipswich on opening day. That's nothing new though, as even in pre-season Liverpool have been racking up the foul counts. They hit 14 against Arsenal, 15 against Man Utd and 11 against Sevilla.
In Brentford we have a team excellent at drawing fouls, and they showed as much in their season opening win over Crystal Palace. The Bees were fouled 15 times on that occasion, with their fast transition, direct football seemingly seeing them rack up the fouls won.
The line for LIVERPOOL FOULS is set at 13+, and I'll happily have a nibble at the 11/8 carrot dangled.
As discussed, Liverpool's style is conducive to fouls, and though they do have a different manager, it is worth noting that in the two match-ups with Brentford last season the Reds went mental with fouls, despite winning by a three-goal margin both times.
At Anfield, the Reds made 16 fouls and at the Gtech they racked up a huge 18. I think 13 is most certainly doable, especially given the styles of both teams.
Keep an eye on Ryan Gravenberch. He played in the six last weekend and made five fouls. He's 6/4 for 2+ fouls here.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
BuildABet @ 20/1
- Liverpool to commit 13+ fouls
- Ryan Gavenberch to commit 2+ fouls
- Luis Diaz 3+ total shots
- Bryan Mbeumo 1+ shot on target
- Yoane Wissa 1+ offside
Click here to back with Sky Bet
Luis Diaz is a shoot-on-sight man, firing three in Liverpool's season opener, and averaging 3.2 per 90 last term.
Bryan Mbeumo is Brentford's main man with no Ivan Toney around, and scored against Palace last weekend. He averaged 0.92 shots on target per 90 last season.
Already advised:
1.5pts Mats Wieffer to commit 2+ fouls in Brighton vs Man Utd (12:30) at 13/8 (Sky Bet) - VOID
3pts Daniel Munoz to commit 2+ fouls in C Palace vs West Ham (15:00) at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Daichi Kamada to commit 2+ fouls in C Palace vs West Ham (15:00) at 9/5 (William Hill)
1.5pts Lucas Digne to commit 2+ fouls in Aston Villa vs Arsenal (17:30) at 13/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Brighton vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sport 1
- Home 29/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 8/5
Brighton are brilliant aren't they? Season after season they have to make big decisions around personnel, and they nearly always get it spot on. I don't want to get too carried away after a 3-0 win at Everton, but Fabian Hürzeler looks another good appointment in the dugout.
Analysing the game, and looking back at the average position of the XI, one thing stood out to me, which was that new midfield signing MATS WIEFFER (who looks excellent), was left pretty exposed, which led to him getting through a lot of work.
Against the Toffees, the Dutchman won three of four tackles and COMMITTED TWO fouls, and at 13/8 for a repeat of the latter, he looks worth a bet here.
Brighton's average formation last week was basically 4-1-5, with Weiffer (number 27) holding down the fort in midfield. That could prove problematic against Manchester United's 'box' midfield that consists of two eights in Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes.
Both pick up dangerous positions and will be looking to exploit this potential advantage, and with Wieffer a foul-prone player who committed two on debut and an average of 1.91 per game in the Eredivisie last season, this selection has a great chance. The same bet is as short as 4/7 in places.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Crystal Palace vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/5
I'm really looking forward to this match. It could be a lively one. Two sides looking to progress and challenge for Europe, playing in a very combative, in-your-face style should mean a lot of fouls.
I was absolutely staggered to see last weekend's hero DANIEL MUNOZ priced at even money for another 2+ FOULS game.
The Colombian picked up where he left off at the Copa America by delivering for us against Brentford, and I'm flabbergasted we can get a bigger price this weekend, especially with him set to be up against the elusive and direct Mohammed Kudus.
Munoz averaged 1.88 fouls per 90 last season, and has hit 2+ fouls in nine of his last 12 Palace outings. His direct opponent this weekend, Kudus, was fouled a massive five times last weekend, three by Aston Villa's right back Matty Cash, while throughout 23/24 he averaged a league-high 2.72 fouls won per 90.
We are getting evens with Betfair, with the same bet as short as 8/15 in places.
I'll also have a play on DAICHI KAMADA TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS here too. He caught the eye for his full-throttle pressing, something Palace manager Oliver Glasner likes, which led to him making four fouls and picking up a card against Brentford on debut.
Not to get carried away off one game, the Japanese midfield is a low-key foul merchant. Last season at Lazio he averaged 2.29 fouls per 90, and the season before at Frankfurt he averaged 1.59 per 90.
Those stats, plus his debut, make the 9/5 available on 2+ fouls here look huge. Again, some bookies have it as short as 10/11. Sky Bet's 7/4 is still worth taking.
The fact both of these players occupy the majority of Palace's right side helps this bet, with West Ham far better at foul drawing down their left with Emerson and Kudus.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Manchester City vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/12 | Draw 9/1 | Away 20/1
You have to fear for Ipswich here. While they stifled Liverpool for 45 minutes, that was at home, and they were dismantled in the second 45.
Manchester City were impressive away at Chelsea, in total control, and could rack up a score here. It's a no bet from me, but I fully expect Pep Guardiola's side to win by a at least a couple of goals.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Tottenham vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 15/4 | Away 21/4
Tottenham were excellent in the first half against Leicester, but the second half left plenty of question marks. Speaking of which, there are plenty around Everton too after their opening defeat.
I wanted to attack a pro-Everton set-piece bet for this game given it's an obvious strength of the Toffees and was such a weakness for Spurs last term, but last weekend's showing from Sean Dyche's men has completely put me off.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 16/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/4
You could make the argument that Unai Emery single-handedly cost Arsenal the title last season. After all, his Villa team did the double over the Gunners.
They were able to stifle Mikel Arteta's side and I wouldn't be surprised to see more of the same here. One bet has sucked me in though, and it focuses around Bukayo Saka, who looked electric last weekend against Wolves.
He was fouled twice, yet again, with the right winger extremely tricky to defend against. Last season he won 2.12 fouls per 90, so immediately I'm look at his opposite number.
That looks set to be LUCAS DIGNE this weekend, and his price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS looks too big.
If this were any other game I wouldn't be too interested given his record, but against Arsenal and Saka he seems to struggle.
Last season he made four fouls at Villa Park and two fouls at the Emirates, and the time he started against the Gunners prior to last season he committed three fouls.
He did get carded in this fixture last season too, and at 9/2 that nearly made the staking plan, especially with Michael Oliver overseeing proceedings, but the 2+ fouls seems the safer way in.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 2
- Manchester City 3-0 Ipswich
- Tottenham 2-0 Everton
- C Palace 2-2 West Ham
- Aston Villa 1-1 Arsenal
- Bournemouth 1-2 Newcastle
- Liverpool 2-0 Brentford
Odds correct at 1700 BST (22/08/24)
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