- Jake's Predictions: Staked 243.25pts | Returned 271.30pts | P/L +28.05pts | ROI 12%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:30
2pts Each team Manchester City 20+ booking points vs Leicester at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 15:00
1.5pts Lesley Ugochukwu 2+ fouls committed in Palace vs Southampton at 9/5 (Betfair)
0.5pt Brennan Johnson to be carded in Spurs vs Wolves at 9/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Draws in both Everton vs Forest and Fulham vs Bournemouth at 11/1 (Betfred)
Sunday 17:30
2pts Liverpool 18+ total shots vs West Ham at 6/5 (Boylesports)
Monday
2pts Aston Villa to beat Brighton at 19/20 (19:45) at 19/20 (William Hill)
1pt Tosin Adarabioyo to win 1+ foul in Ipswich vs Chelsea (19:45) at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Noussair Mazraoui to be carded in Man Utd vs Newcastle (20:00) at 5/1 (William Hill)
Boxing Day saw a small loss for us, but the 27th nudged us into profit thanks to William Saliba getting fouled. We'll take it and move on.
This column covers games from Sunday and Monday's Premier League action, with, as usual, a variety of markets selected and I've even tipped a draw double for all you fence-sitters.
Fingers crossed we can make more, and slightly bigger, profit ahead of New Year celebrations.
Leicester vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/1 | Draw 9/2 | Away 3/10
If this was the Manchester City of recent seasons, Pep's side would be down as a guaranteed win against one of the worst teams in the Premier League. With this current version of the Cityzens, it's not so cut and dry, even against a team as bad as Leicester.
City's poor run now stretches to just one win in 13 across all competitions following a home draw with Everton, and as daft as it sounds, Leicester really do have the tools to score a couple of goals on the break. The question for the Foxes though, is can they keep enough out of their own net.
I was close to taking a chance on Leicester to score 2+ goals at 5/2, as I do think they can expose City on the counter, but instead, the 5/6 available for MAN CITY 20+ BOOKING POINTS looks massive.
Ill discipline has been a feature this season for the reigning champions, no doubt due to their lack of dominance, with Pep's men collecting an average of 2.17 cards per league game and seeing 2+ cards in 67% of contests.
If we look at their last 12 matches - excluding Spurs in the Carabao Cup where a second string was fielded - they have collected 20+ booking points eight times, so more of the same is all we need here, though the main excitement for this bet comes due to their opponents.
Leicester are one of the most fouled teams in the top flight, averaging 11.5 fouls won per 90, and they have drawn an average of 2.33 cards from their opponents this season, with the opponent covering the 20+ booking point line in 67% of outings.
The referee here is Michael Oliver, a good appointment for card backers having averaged 5.2 cards per game this season, and another interesting wrinkle for this bet is that he has refereed Man City four times already this season, with this bet landing three times.
Those that want a bigger price, I wouldn't put anyone off backing Both teams 20+ booking points at 11/8 with Sky Bet, with the Foxes picking up an average of 2.5 cards per game, while I was close to tipping Josko Gvardiol to be carded at 6/1 (Sky Bet) given he could well come up against Jordan Ayew - the league's best foul winner (3.38 per 90).
Score prediction: Leicester 2-2 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Crystal Palace vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4
Southampton's new manager Ivan Juric has had an instant impact on their playing style, scrapping the play out from the back all the time and adopting a real in-your-face, combative style that has resulted in them making plenty of fouls - 30 across his first two games. It hasn't helped results yet though.
Leaning into that here, the price around LESLEY UGOCHUKWU TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS looks incredible, with Betfair a standout 9/5. He's evens in places.
The midfielder started on Boxing Day alongside Flynn Downes and was all action, just as he was when coming on against Fulham. Across his last four appearances for Saints he has averaged 3.3 fouls per 90, and the Frenchman made three fouls when playing 86 minutes last time out.
He'll be tasked with containing Palace's dynamic duo on Sunday, Eberechi Eze and Ismaila Sarr, the pair winning 1.69 and 2.14 fouls per 90 respectively, and playing in the new managers' intense style, he should give us a run for our money here - should he start.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Everton vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 7/4
Everton continue to be a tough nut to crack, just as Sean Dyche likes it. It's just two defeats in 13 league games for the Toffees, though they have only won three times in that span. They are unbeaten in six at home, so it is hard to oppose them, even if Nottingham Forest are red-hot and proven travellers.
Nuno's side have lost just two of nine away league games this season, winning five, so I was tempted to play them on the draw no bet market, but they are even money. A couple of weeks ago against Brentford (a better overall side than Everton and the then best home team in the league) they were 13/10 in that market, so evens feels like a bit too much of an overreaction.
Under 2.5 goals did tempt me, even at 7/10, but the DRAW looks a real runner here. I won't be backing it at a single, but instead coupling it up with another Premier League draw for an 11/1 shot.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Fulham vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 9/5
There's very little between these two sides in my opinion. Fulham are coming off a brilliant win at Chelsea, unbeaten in six and losing just one of 10. Bournemouth are unbeaten in six, losing just two of 11.
Two very good teams, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them cancel each other out, with the DRAW again looking an interesting way in. Fulham's home matches have been cagey-ish affairs this season according to xG, with matches at the Cottage averaging just 2.41 per game, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see similar here, especially with the Cherries coming off a low-event goalless draw last time out.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Tottenham vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 7/2 | Away 7/2
Since thrashing Manchester City 4-0, Tottenham have won just one of six league games, losing four.
A defensive injury crisis hasn't helped them, but as discussed in last week's column, the consistency with which Ange Postecoglou's defenders in particular get injuries can't be a coincidence.
Wolves have looked much more solid defensively in their two games under new management, with Vitor Pereira overseeing consecutive clean sheets in a pair of victories. It'll be a harder task keeping this Spurs attack out here though, for all the hosts do look a tired team.
I was looking to back Joao Gomes 3+ fouls here at 13/8, with him hitting four and five in two matches under his new manager and in eight of 17 this season, but the referee appointment of Chris Kavanagh has put me off.
He is a high card referee, averaging 5.66 cards per game this season, meaning the chances of Gomes getting booked after one or two fouls is high, making a third foul a huge risk.
Instead, with a good referee for cards, the chance of an upset and frustration kicking in from the hosts, we simply have to back BRENNAN JOHNSON TO BE CARDED at the massive 9/1 being dangled.
I'm always looking to back him given his hot-headed nature, and the fact that he seemingly loves a cynical foul, and I'd generally take 9/2, so the price available is simply must-back.
The Welshman has already been carded three times for his club this season and four times for his country, so is no stranger to a yellow.
His latest card came as a second half sub when Spurs were already 5-0 up at Southampton, while his fouls per 90 average of 1.25 is steady enough. He'll also be tasked with tracking one of Wolves' chief creative threats in Rayan Ait-Nouri, while Matheus Cunha also likes drifting to the left-flank.
Don't be surprised to see him in a few tussles on Sunday, and a card is too big of a price to pass up.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
West Ham vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 17:15 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 6/1 | Draw 4/1 | Away 4/11
Is there any stopping Liverpool? It doesn't seem like it at the moment, and they are understandably short to win at the London Stadium.
West Ham have steadied the ship somewhat, winning two of an unbeaten last four, but none of those sides were anywhere near Liverpool's calibre.
What stood over those four games though was the amount of shots Julen Lopetegui's side conceded. They shipped 19 at home to Wolves, 29 at Bournemouth, 12 at home to Brighton and 18 at Southampton.
So, it was somewhat surprising to see LIVERPOOL 18+ TOTAL SHOTS priced up at 6/5 here.
Over the whole season, the Hammers have conceded the fourth-most shots in the league, allowing 16.5 per game, while Liverpool's 16.0 shots taken per game has them as the third most prolific shooters.
So far this season against sides who finished in the top eight last term, the Hammers have allowed 17.9 shots per game, with both Manchester clubs already firing 18+ at the London Stadium this term. It seems a reasonable goal for a Reds side who have started to show a ruthlessness in attack, especially away from home.
Arne Slot's men have delivered 19.6 shots per game across their last five road trips, scoring 15 times in the process.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Aston Villa vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 14/5 | Away 5/2
I'm going to trust the data on this one and back ASTON VILLA TO WIN at 19/20.
They'll want to bounce back after a heavy defeat on Boxing Day, though Jhon Duran's early red card played a big role in that, and Villa Park continues to be a fortress. Across their last 35 home league games, the Villans have won 24 - that's a 69% strikerate.
Their underlying process (+1.13) at home this season is only bettered by Arsenal (+1.46) and Liverpool (+1.22), and they have won the xG battle in eight of nine as hosts.
Brighton are W3 D3 L3 away from home this season, but have lost the xG battle in six road games, with their process when travelling the seventh worst in the division, allowing a huge 1.70 xGA per game.
They have started to look rather toothless too, scoring multiple times only once in their winless last six, with that coming against one of the worst defences in the league Leicester.
All in all, I think this Seagulls team is missing something in attack, while defensively they are vulnerable to the attacking options Villa have to offer. Brentford, who held Brighton at the Amex last time out, went off at 5/6 at Villa Park only a few weeks ago, while Crystal Palace, who recently hammered Brighton in their own back yard, were 7/10 at Villa Park just over a month ago.
So should Villa really be touching evens?
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Ipswich vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday
- Home 11/2 | Draw 4/1 | Away 2/5
Ipswich are playing, meaning Liam Delap will be on the football field, which in turn means a Chelsea centre-back will be getting fouled.
This angle won for us last time out as Delap fouled William Saliba for a 15/8 winner, so let's go in again. It looks as though TOSIN ADARABIOYO will be starting at right centre-back for Chelsea, and he is 11/8 TO WIN 1+ FOUL.
The Arsenal game saw one centre-back priced considerably shorter than the other, and it's the same here, with Levi Colwill 5/6 to be fouled once, much shorter than Tosin.
At least on centre-back has been fouled in seven of Delap's last eight starts now, so it is absolutely worth chancing again here. After all, Delap has averaged a league leading 2.65 fouls committed per 90 (of players to play 700 minutes or more).
Score prediction: Ipswich 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Manchester United vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 13/8 | Draw 13/5 | Away 7/5
Manchester United are a mid-to-bottom half team. That is a fact. The more weeks that go by, the more people will come to realise it, and the bookies have started to. The Red Devils were 4/5 to beat Bournemouth in their last home game, the Cherries 16/5, but on Monday, United are outsiders, backable at a huge 9/5 in places, with visiting Newcastle around the 6/4 marker.
I think that is too big of a move, especially with Newcastle's away record in the last year or so. In their last 30 away games they have won just nine and lost 14. So, as with last week, with the Magpies in action we have to look at backing the opposition right back, or right centre-back.
Matty Cash delivered for us at 3/1 on Boxing Day, so let's chance NOUSSAIR MAZRAOUI TO BE CARDED at a huge 5/1.
The Moroccan has been a constant starter for Ruben Amorim, and has played right wing-back and right centre-back in recent weeks. Wherever he lines up, he'll be tasked with dealing with Anthony Gordon, the flying winger drawing 2.65 fouls per 90.
So far Mazraoui has only been booked once this season, but is averaging 1.47 fouls committed per 90, and won't have come up against livelier wingers than Gordon. Even if the Moroccan lines up at right centre-back as opposed to right wing-back, this bet still has a great chance.
Peter Bankes is a decent enough refereeing appointment here, averaging 4.43 cards per game across all competitions this season.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 27
- Leicester 2-2 Manchester City
- Tottenham 1-1 Wolves
- Crystal Palace 1-0 Southampton
- Everton 1-1 Nottingham Forest
- Fulham 1-1 Bournemouth
- West Ham 1-3 Liverpool
Odds correct at 2200 (27/12/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org
