- Jake's Predictions: Staked 216.25pts | Returned 221.32pts | P/L +5.07pts | ROI 2.3%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Weekend acca
0.5pt Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Liverpool to win at 24/1 (Unibet)
Saturday 12:30
1.5pts Aston Villa to beat Manchester City at 12/5 (Betfred)
Saturday 15:00
1.5pts Nottingham Forest to win (Draw no Bet) vs Brentford at 13/10 (William Hill)
1.5pts Mohammed Kudus 1+ shot on target in West Ham vs Brighton at 49/50 (Unibet)
Saturday 17:30
1.5pts Martin Odegaard to score or assist in Palace vs Arsenal at 6/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill)
Sunday 14:00
2pts BTTS and over 2.5 goals in Leicester vs Wolves at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Mario Lemina to be carded in Leicester vs Wolves at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jamie Vardy to be carded in Leicester vs Wolves at 9/2 (Betfair)
0.5pt Lemina and Vardy to be carded at 20/1 (Boylesports)
1pt Sasa Lukic to be carded in Fulham vs Southampton at 18/5 (Unibet)
1pt Bournemouth to beat Man Utd at 16/5 (bet365, Betfair)
***Spurs vs Liverpool bets to follow
Another mixed bag last weekend, but it was one that ended in a loss. Chelsea's shot total against Brentford - finishing with 26 - salvaged things somewhat, but it ultimately wasn't enough.
We've one more weekend before Christmas, so as well as the usual shorter-priced plays, I've put together a weekend-long acca as I think some of the underdogs are too big of a price, so let's hope they turn up and land us some big profit to help pay for all the food, drinks and presents.
'Tis also the time of year for those on four yellow cards, with a booking meaning suspension for such players and a well timed week off, missing the Boxing Day fixtures; that features in this weekend's column.
Weekend Acca
There are three teams I really like the look of this week, two of them big-priced outsiders. I'll be putting a bit of change on ASTON VILLA, BOURNEMOUTH AND LIVERPOOL ALL TO WIN at a price of 24/1.
The reasonings can be found further down, but all should be shorter, and the two outsiders should be vying for favouritism.
Fingers crossed.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 9/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/20
How are we getting ASTON VILLA TO WIN at 12/5? It could be bet of the week territory.
Villa have really struggled this season following a midweek game, losing four and winning just two of nine, likely due to lack of preparation time for a genius tactician to get a game plan in place. If you give Unai Emery a free week to get his side ready, it's fair to say he cooks.
They have played seven league games following a free midweek and have won five, losing just once against Arsenal in a game they created more than enough to deserve at least a point from.
At home they have won only four of eight, but their results really haven't reflected performances, with only Arsenal racking up more expected points (xP) than Emery's men, and only the Gunners having a better process (+1.19 xGD per game).
So Villa are still good, especially at home and especially after a free midweek, while Manchester City really are a shell of their former themselves.
It's one win in 11 across all competitions after a late collapse in the Manchester derby, and they look a team completely lacking confidence.
Confidence is one issue, their defending is another, and I'm sure the two are linked. Pep's side have conceded 25 goals in their 11-game run, an average of 2.28 per game, shipping two or more goals in 10 of those matches and keeping just one clean sheet.
Expected goals-wise, the reigning champions have allowed 2.0+ xG in seven of 11, conceding an average of 2.00 xGA per game. For context, in the Premier League this season, only the three promoted sides are averaging more. Meanwhile, City have allowed 4.18 opta defined big chances per game. Yikes.
And then there is City's attack. The once juggernaut creative machine is stalling too. They have failed to generate more then 1.6 xG in six of their last 11, and have scored just 13 times across that period. Erling Haaland has scored just two in their seven league games.
All in all, a home win is a confident selection, and I would argue that Villa should be marginal favourites given how poor City have been of late. And let's not forget that last season Villa were dominant in victory at Villa Park when Pep's side were good.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 5/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 19/10
Brentford have won seven of an unbeaten eight home games in the league this season, but I have to take them on here. After being 19/10 against mid-table Newcastle, they are much shorter against fourth-placed Nottingham Forest who have the third best away record in the division.
That simply looks wrong, so I'll happily back NOTTINGHAM FOREST DRAW NO BET at 13/10.
The Bees only real test at the Gtech this season in my opinion has been Bournemouth - they are the only current top half team Thomas Frank's side have hosted - and the Cherries were unfortunate to lose (xG: BRE 1.48 - 2.61 BOU). Other than that game and poor travellers Newcastle, Brentford have welcomed six of the bottom half.
Forest represent a big step up, losing only two of eight away games, those coming at the Emirates and the Etihad. In fact, their W4 D2 L2 record on the road is even better than first glance, as they have already played away against four of the top five (LIV, CHE, ARS, MCI) as well as Ruben Amorim's Manchester United and Brighton.
Nuno Espirito Santo's side have had a free midweek following a win over Aston Villa, while Brentford played in Newcastle on Wednesday which is another plus for this bet, as is the fact that the Bees give you chances, allowing 1.40 xGA per home game.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Ipswich vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/6
Newcastle simply aren't to be trusted away from home. In their last 29 away league games, the Magpies have won just eight times, losing 14. Factor in they will be without Joelinton due to suspension, and it's easy to swerve them at the prices.
Likewise with Ipswich though, who, despite winning against Wolves last time out, rank as the second worst team in the league on underlying data. Plus, Kieran McKenna will be missing Liam Delap through suspension.
It's a no bet here, but keep an eye on team news, as whoever is opposing Anthony Gordon - be it Ipswich's left-back if Harvey Barnes starts with Gordon pushed to right wing, or Ipswich's right back if Josh Murphy starts meaning Gordon plays in his usual left-wing spot - will be a good bet for a card.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
West Ham vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
I think this could be another potential upset on Saturday, with West Ham looking a large price to get the win.
The problem is, I don't trust them, and as odd as it may sound, I'd be even more confident with a David Moyes-led West Ham heading into this game.
Instead, I'll take the near even money available for MOHAMMED KUDUS 1+ SHOT ON TARGET, with the Ghanaian looking incredibly dangerous since returning from his lengthy suspension.
Brighton ship an average of 4.7 shots on target per game when travelling, and Kudus is taking 3.4 shots per 90 with 1.3 of those hitting the target.
He looks to be the Hammers' main threat, and I suspect we'll start to see him show it over the festive period.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 11/20
These two played out a thriller in the Carabao Cup, with a second-half Gabriel Jesus hat-trick sealing the comeback for Arsenal.
The Gunners rested key starters but did call upon them in the second half, and it was MARTIN ODEGAARD who kicked them into life.
The Norwegian provided two assists in his 45-minute cameo to help turn the game on its head, and I think his price TO SCORE OR ASSIST looks large at 6/4.
Since the November international break, Odegaard has been in excellent form, and could have more than the one goal and three assists to his name.
In that time he's averaged 0.32 xG and 0.31 xA per 90, combining for 0.63 xGI per 90.
For context, in the same timeframe Bukayo Saka has averaged 0.64 xGI per 90, yet is priced at evens in the 'to score or assist' market.
I also think we will see a reaction from Arsenal to the clamouring around their lack of open play goals, with perhaps more risks taken than usual.
Gabriel's price of 9/1 did really tempt me, with set-pieces still a huge angle of attack from the Gunners, but I'll leave it with the Arsenal captain to create or score.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Everton vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/1 | Draw 3/1 | Away 3/5
This one looks an awkward betting heat. Chelsea are flying at the moment, second in the league and just two points off top, but Everton continue to be a difficult team to play against. Since losing their first four games, the Toffees have won three, drawn six and lost just two in the league - with both defeats coming away from home.
At Goodison Park they are unbeaten in five, though it's fair to say they haven't faced a side of Chelsea's calibre in that time. All in all it's very difficult to fancy anything from the 1X2 market.
I was close to putting up Ashley Young to be carded, him being another of those players a card away from a long Christmas, but the price has contracted and with Jadon Sancho not the best foul-drawer down the left, and no Marc Cucurella over-lapping (suspended), I was happy to leave this game from a betting standpoint.
Score prediction: Everton 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Fulham vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 2/5 | Draw 19/5 | Away 11/2
It's all change at Southampton. No more tippy-tappy Russell Martin football. They look close to appointing his replacement, but it shouldn't matter here.
Fulham are a good mid-table side, with Southampton firmly the worst side in the division, so a home win looks highly likely.
The bet that stands out though is SASA LUKIC TO BE CARDED at a huge 18/5. The same bet is as short as 13/8 in places.
The fact we are getting that price about a midfielder who has been booked six times already this season seems wrong in itself, but looks even more off when factoring in he'll be up against Tyler Dibling (3.19 fouls won per 90) and Mateus Fernandes.
With referee Tim Robinson overseeing proceedings (5.67 cards per game), this looks a cracker of a bet.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Leicester vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/1 | Draw 3/1 | Away 3/5
This game could be really entertaining, from both a goals and a cards perspective. Leicester have been incredibly easy to create against all season, but especially since Ruud van Nistelrooy took charge.
The Foxes have conceded 24.7 shots per game in his three outings, and 2.81 xGA.
Wolves, under new management, will fancy their chances of getting a desperately needed win. The Old Gold are five points behind Sunday's fourth-bottom opponents and simply have to go for the jugular with their situation dire and their upcoming schedule simply horrendous.
They face the prospect of hosting Manchester United, visiting Spurs, welcoming Forest, some respite with an FA Cup game, travelling to Newcastle and Chelsea, hosting Arsenal and Aston Villa, then going to Liverpool and Bournemouth. Blimey.
Even with a new manager in charge, we should expected an attack-minded approach from Wolves, while Leicester have shown nothing other than that under Van Nistelrooy.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS looks a solid bet at 10/11. It has won in 10 of Leicester's 16 league games and 12 of Wolves' 16.
Tempers could boil over with so much at stake even at this early stage, and we have a couple of candidates one yellow away from a Christmas suspension.
MARIO LEMINA is one of those and looks a cracking price at 3/1 TO BE CARDED. The Wolves midfielder has had a really tough few weeks, losing his head after the full-time whistle against West Ham which resulted in him losing the captaincy.
This week he'll be in the midst of a midfield battle, and tasked with keeping tabs on the tricky Facundo Buonanotte, who has won 1.77 fouls per 90 this season. The Argentine has started 11 games this season, and eight of his opposing players have been booked.
JAMIE VARDY is another who is a booking away from a prolonged Christmas break, and if he does get carded here he misses a game at Anfield that the Foxes will probably lose anyway, and be fresh for a home game against a defensively vulnerable Manchester City side.
He doesn't commit many fouls, but if the Foxes are leading he'll be pulling out all the time wasting tricks. There's also the chance he scores and whips his top off too, and at 9/2 he looks too big of a price in such a big game.
We'll also do smaller stakes on the double, which is available at 20/1 with Boylesports, just in case.
The referee is Anthony Taylor, who has some real highs along with real lows with cards this season. Overall he's averaged 4.0 cards per game in the Premier League, but along with some zero, one and two card games, he's had a 14-card game, a nine-card game which featured Leicester, and plenty of fives.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 14/5 | Away 3/1
This looks another game where the underdog is underestimated. BOURNEMOUTH are one of the six best teams in the league in my opinion, a better side than this current Manchester United team, yet are priced at above 3/1 TO WIN at Old Trafford.
It is early in Ruben Amorim's reign, but while there are signs of improvement, they still look severely lacking. They have won four of his eight games in charge, but the schedule has been kind and especially in the last two games, the opposition has helped them into the game.
The Red Devils had hardly threatened at the Etihad last weekend before Matheus Nunes gifted them a penalty, while they were 3-0 down in midweek until Fraser Forster gifted them two goals.
That midweek match gives Bournemouth a slight rest advantage, only slight as Amorim rotated quite a bit.
Andoni Iraola's side are the third best side in the entire division according to expected goals data, behind only Liverpool and Arsenal. Away from home, only the leaders boast a better xGD per game than the Cherries (+0.64).
That is enough to tempt me in to the big price about the away win, as is the fact they have won the xG battle in 13 of 16 league games this season, so going by all the data they will out-create United on Sunday.
While it was a different manager, let's not forget this Bournemouth team trounced United 3-0 at Old Trafford last season. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar here.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 28/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 25
- Brentford 1-2 N Forest
- West Ham 1-1 Brighton
- Ipswich 1-1 Newcastle
- C Palace 1-2 Arsenal
- Fulham 2-1 Southampton
- Tottenham v Liverpool*
*To be added Friday
All Saturday bets - odds correct at 0920 (20/12/24)
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