- Jake's Predictions: Staked 202.25pts | Returned 209.43pts | P/L +7.18pts | ROI 3.6%
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Chelsea 19+ total shot vs Brentford (19:00) at 41/50 (Unibet)
1.5pts Dominic Solanke to score anytime in Southampton vs Spurs (19:00) at 7/5 (Unibet)
It was nice to get a decently profitable week last week, with 3.7pts returned. Chelsea were big contributors, as was Daniel Munoz, but the most pleasing winner was Brentford getting the better of Newcastle.
The data and eye-test backed up the bet so it's always nice when it all clicks like that.
Onto this weekend, and I had to restrict myself somewhat, with there being a load of fancies at 3pm on Saturday, a couple of extra of which, while not included in the staking plan, I have mentioned in the copy.
Anyhow, lets hope for another weekend of profit.
ALSO WATCH: WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW SHOW
Chelsea vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 19:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 3/10 | Draw 19/4 | Away 13/2
Title contenders (yes, really) Chelsea take on a Brentford side who have been Jekyll and Hyde this season, mainly due to the schedule.
The Bees are W7 D1 at home and D1 L6 away, playing only bottom half teams at home and facing five of last season's top eight on the road. They face another of those sides here on their travels here, and we shouldn't expect a different outcome.
The stat that stands out about Thomas Frank's side though is the number of shots they concede. Only bottom side Southampton (277) have faced more attempts than the Bees (272 - 18.2 per game).
That looks a cracking way in here, with CHELSEA 19+ TOTAL SHOTS priced up at the 4/5 mark with Unibet.
This is a bet that would have won in six of seven Brentford away matches this season, with Frank's men facing 22.1 shots per game on their travels.
Chelsea have found a groove, and had 26 shots away at Southampton - the only side ahead of Brentford in the shots conceded table. In their last four home games against sides chasing Europe, and sides who don't concede anywhere near as many shots as the Bees, they have fired 22, 17, 17 and 17.
Hitting 19 looks very manageable here given the data then, and I wouldn't put anyone off a ladder, with 20+ at 11/10 and 21+ at 29/20 with Unibet.
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Southampton vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 19:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 16/5 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/6
This is a really big game for both managers. Bottom side Southampton are surely running out of patience with Russell Martin, while Tottenham are 11th in the league having won just one of their last eight in all competitions, putting Ange Postecoglou on the hot-seat.
While the stubbornness of both in terms of their footballing ideologies and tactics is a hard watch for fans of both clubs, especially at this current moment, the beauty about these managers for the neutral and, in particular, the betting public, is that we know what we are going to get from both sides on a week-to-week basis.
Southampton are going to play out from the back and take risks that way, while Tottenham will play an intense press and take risks that way. In terms of a head-to-head game, you have to give Spurs a huge edge with their ability to win the ball high up the pitch and Saint's persistence at playing out. You would expect Spurs to pick their pockets a couple of times at least.
At 3/4, they look a backable price given not only that aspect, but the fact that Southampton have been utterly abysmal this season. If this were a fully-fit Tottenham side, mainly defensively, they would be a bet. As it is, I think the angle of attack is backing DOMINIC SOLANKE TO SCORE ANYTIME which is available at a generous 7/5.
He'd been on a bit of a barren run before scoring against Chelsea last weekend, going four without a goal, but he continues to get on the end of good chances. So far this season, Solanke has averaged 0.57 xG per 90, a figure up on last seasons 0.53, and he unsurprisingly leads his side on that metric.
Another reason for this selection is that, for whatever reason, Southampton just cannot stop opposing centre-forwards. The Saints have conceded to opposing strikers in seven of their last 13 league games, with Jhon Duran the latest to punish them last weekend. And, let's not forget the fact that Martin's men prop up the division in terms of xGA per game (2.37).
In a game that could well be a high-scoring ding-dong battle, with a lot of defensive mistakes by both sides, I think the price on offer for Spurs' number nine looks too big.
Score prediction: Southampton 2-3 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
All Sunday bets - Odds correct at 1430 (13/12/24)
Super 6 predictions for round 24
- Arsenal 2-0 Everton
- Liverpool 2-0 Fulham
- Newcastle 3-1 Leicester
- N Forest 2-2 Aston Villa
- Brighton 1-1 C Palace
- Man City 3-1 Man Utd
Already advised
1pt William Saliba to score anytime in Arsenal vs Everton at 12/1 (Unibet)
2.5pts Under 3.5 Goals in Liverpool vs Fulham at 8/11 (William Hill)
1.5pts Newcastle 18+ total shots vs Leicester at 49/50 (Unibet)
1.5pts Over 5.5 Cards in Wolves vs Ipswich at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Youri Tielemans to be carded in N Forest vs Aston Villa at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Georginio Rutter 3+ total shots in Brighton vs C Palace (14:00) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Erling Haaland to score a header in Man City vs Man Utd (16:30) at 15/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Arsenal vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/5 | Draw 5/1 | Away 12/1
Until someone stops Arsenal's new set-piece tactic, we simply have to keep backing big-priced goalscorers. Across their last five games, Arsenal have scored six goals via corners and free-kicks, and while at first glance you may think Everton are an opponent who will stifle this angle, think again.
The Toffees, despite posing an attacking threat from such scenarios, rank 10th in terms of xG conceded from dead-ball situations (4.67), 11th for shots conceded (54) and ninth for goals conceded (4).
While that may seem ok, digging deeper it becomes apparent that they, like everyone else, are exposed from set-pieces by the league's best.
Sean Dyche's men have faced four sides who sit in the top seven for xGF from set-pieces so far this season and have conceded an average of 0.60 xGA, with two opposition centre-backs scoring in those four matches (Christian Romero and Marc Guehi).
Arsenal, unsurprisingly, sit top of the set-piece xGF standings, and top of the goals scored from set-piece standings, and can once again bamboozle their opponents from deadballs.
Gabriel (twice), Jurrien Timber and WILLIAM SALIBA (two) have all scored across the last six outings, and the latter is worth backing again TO SCORE ANYTIME here at a huge 12/1.
Saliba has scored in his last two Premier League appearances, and with Gabriel expected to once again miss out, he looks the biggest threat from this angle of attack.
Jakub Kiwior is 14s but yet to have a shot this season, while Timber is shorter than Saliba 11s despite not posing as much of an aerial threat.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Liverpool vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 9/2 | Away 15/2
Liverpool didn't play last weekend and their title chances increased following Arsenal and Manchester City's dropped points. The Reds continue to play with absolute control, so much so that whenever they are hosting at Anfield, I love attacking the goal lines.
We can back UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 8/11 here, and that looks a fantastic bet.
The Reds have gone Under 3.5 Goals in 11 of their 14 Premier League games, while all seven of their home matches have seen this bet land. In total, their league matches at Anfield have averaged just 2.3 goals per game.
Fulham are the visitors on Sunday and they have been as tight on the goal front, with Under 3.5 Goals landing in 10 of 15 overall but six of seven when they travel, their away games seeing just 2.1 goals per game.
It would be a huge surprise to see this game explode into life, with the Cottagers content with sitting and countering, and Liverpool playing somewhat cautiously as a result, controlling the pace and the transitions.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Newcastle vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/7 | Draw 9/2 | Away 15/2
Ruud van Nistelrooy has had a dream start to life as Leicester manager, picking up four points from two games and scoring five goals in the process.
They have, however, ridden their luck massively. They needed two very late goals to earn a point against Brighton, conceding 16 shots at the King Power, while against West Ham they were comfortably second best on the xG metric (3.10 - 1.67) and shipped a huge 31 shots.
I think their defensive frailties are set to be exposed yet again here, and the angle looks to be in NEWCASTLE SHOTS, and we can back 18+ SHOTS at near even money.
While the Magpies have only averaged 12.6 shots per home game, context is needed. So far at St. James' Park, Eddie Howe's men have faced Tottenham, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, understandably failing to hit 18+ shots in any of those.
Their other three games saw them play Southampton, where they were reduced to 10-men early in the first half, Brighton and West Ham, with the latter two seeing them deliver 21 and 18 shots.
That's enough to give me confidence that they can surpass the required line against one of the most leaky defences in the division, who have conceded an average of 18 shots per away game.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Wolves vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 11/4
This is a huge football match and it should deliver plenty of drama. It should also deliver plenty of cards, and that has to be the way in here.
The total card line is set at a high 5.5, but I think there is still value in backing OVER 5.5 CARDS at 13/10.
You may think this is a bit of a stretch, but these two, while also being in the bottom three, are two of the best sides for fouls and cards.
Ipswich have been shown an average of 2.8 cards per game this season, committing 12.6 fouls per 90, while Wolves have been handed 2.7 cards per game and committing 13.0 fouls per 90 this season
The cards tallies have both in the top five in the league, while the foul tallies have both in the top three.
You could argue both sides have had three games each this season against sides either high in the foul committed table or near the bottom of the actual table, with all seeing high card counts.
Wolves have faced West Ham in a high-pressure 'El Sackio' game (seven cards), a Bournemouth side who lead the foul charts (six cards) and Southampton in a relegation six pointer (five cards).
Ipswich have taken on fourth bottom Crystal Palace (six cards), fellow promoted side Leicester (eight cards) and bottom side Southampton (eight cards) with all of those three matches in the 'six pointer' category, just as this is.
The referee here, Simon Hooper is a good appointment, averaging 5.1 cards per game this season, and tempers could flare. It looks a cracking game for card backers.
I don't want to go overboard betting wise, so I'll leave the official bets there, but with Wolves' continued set-piece struggles, it would be remiss of me not to mention Ipswich defenders to shoot or score.
Dara O'Shea is 5/6 (bet365) for a shot and 16/1 to score anytime, with both looking large, as do the 2/1 for a shot about Cameron Burgess (Unibet), with the latter looking a cracking option. Burgess has fired a shot in five of his seven starts this season.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 8/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 13/8
This could be a fun and feisty match between two sides pushing for European football. We have Sam Barrott overseeing proceedings, and he is one the Premier League's best for cards, averaging 5.89 cards per game.
So, delving into the player cards makes plenty appeal, especially with YOURI TIELEMANS TO BE CARDED available at 9/2.
The Belgian has already been carded three times this season, and is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90, but the fact he will be tasked with dealing with Morgan Gibbs-White is the real reason I love this bet.
The Forest midfielder has been fouled 1.50 times per 90 this season, most of them cynical fouls, shown by the fact he has started 11 games this season, and an opposing midfielder has been booked in nine of those.
Lewis Cook, Flynn Downes, both Wolves CMs, Ryan Gravenberch, Carlos Baleba, Moises Caicedo, both West Ham CMs, Jens Cajuste and Ilkay Gundogan have fallen victim this season.
The only doubt is whether Tielemans will start here given how he has played 83 minutes in midweek, but his importance to Villa's team should mean he is again at the heart of midfield.
Boubacar Kamara is only just back from a long term injury and has played the full 90 in both of Villa's last two matches so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him given a rest. If he starts, the 27/10 about him being booked is worth a go as well.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
All Saturday bets - Odds correct at 1020 (13/12/24)
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 14/5
I've been waiting for the right opportunity - and price - for a certain selection, and this weekend is the right time. GEORGINIO RUTTER is a shot merchant at the Amex, and I'm happy to back him to have 3+ SHOTS on Sunday.
It's actually staggering just how lopsided his shot record is for Brighton. 21 of his 31 shots this season have come at home, with him covering this line in four of his six home starts. In total, when playing in front of his own fans, he averages 4.3 shots per 90.
We know the Seagulls will be playing on the front foot, as is their style, and it's highly likely Palace turn up here and play to frustrate and counter, which should only lend itself to more Brighton shots and more Rutter shots.
The only two home game this bet hasn't won in came against Manchester City and Tottenham, two of the 'big six', while against everyone else he's fired 3, 5, 4 and 6 shots. We can back 3+ at 5/4 which looks huge, with the same bet 4/6 in places.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Manchester City vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/20 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/1
A big game here between two sides who are going through their own turbulent times. City have one win in 10. United sit 13th in the league after back-to-back defeats.
I fully expect City to win here though, and it could be argued their price is value, but after not putting up ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE A HEADER for the first time in a while last weekend and him scoring with his head, I'm going back in again with the price of 15/2 large.
I wouldn't put anyone off just backing him to score at 4/5, but I'm happy to reach for a bigger price after delving into the stats.
In the Premier League this season, Haaland has taken 21 shots with his head. In fact, his headed efforts account for 30% of his total shots. He's scored just once from chances equating to 3.38 xG, and get this for a stat; Haaland's xG per 90 with just his head alone (0.22) is greater than Marcus Rashford's (0.16) overall.
I don't mean to crap on Rashford in particular, it's just for some context as to how much of a threat Haaland is with his noggin. For fairness, here's a few other players that Haaland's head has a greater xG per 90 than this season; Jarrod Bowen (0.20), Morgan Gibbs-White (0.15), Dejan Kulusevski (0.13) and all of his teammates apart from Kevin De Bruyne (0.32) and Savinho (0.26).
If you were to take a player averaging 0.22 xG per 90, playing for a team 1/2 to score and odds on to score twice, you'd be looking at a price of around 7/2, so the 15/2 on offer is huge. This bet is 10/3 in places.
The clincher for me here is the fact that Manchester United have conceded the second most headed goals in the league this season (6), and rank as the third worst side at defending set-pieces according to both xGA (6.48 - 0.46 per game) and goals conceded (7).
Four of those headed goals have come in their last two matches against Forest and Arsenal, with those two sides actually behind City in terms of headed shots this season, again highlighting the aerial threat of the Cityzens.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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