- Jake's Predictions: Staked 189.25pts | Returned 192.71pts | P/L +3.46pts | ROI 1.8%
Football betting tips: Premier League Sunday
1.5pts Alex Iwobi 1+ shot on target in Fulham vs Arsenal (14:00) at 31/20 (Unibet)
1.5pts Chelsea to win and BTTS vs Tottenham (16:30) at 2/1 (General)
0.5pt Benoit Badiashile to score anytime in Chelsea vs Tottenham (16:30) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
The midweek round of fixtures were brutal for us. Chris Wood missed a glorious one-on-one in the first half of City v Forest, a chance he has been slotting away with ease this season, which would have seen us cash the BTTS bet, and then there's Caoimhin Kelleher.
His bizarre error - an attempt to dummy the ball out of play from a Newcastle set-piece without realising an attacker was behind him - cost us profit and his team three points.
The selections wiped out over half the profit we had accumulated so far this season. We have to dust ourselves off and go again in what is a relentless schedule over the Christmas period.
Fulham vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 9/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 11/20
Arsenal are vibing at the moment. Since the international break, they have won all four matches, scoring 15 and conceding just three. They look a frightening proposition for any side right now, but a trip to Fulham is a potential banana skin.
The Cottagers sit fourth on expected points this season, and have won four of seven at home. This season Marco Silva's men have already beaten Newcastle and won the xG battle at both the Etihad and at Spurs.
We know Fulham won't change their approach, playing an attacking brand of football, and they should create a couple of good openings here, as they have done in every league game this term.
Former Arsenal man ALEX IWOBI has been in scintillating form of late, and he looks overpriced at above 6/4 to register 1+ SHOT ON TARGET. He's as short as 8/11 in places.
The Gunners, who could again be without key defensive personnel (Gabriel and Ricardo Calafiori missed out in midweek), have conceded in seven of their last eight away games, with gaps still there to be exploited by their opponents.
Iwobi has been a real attacking threat this season, highlighted by his brace in midweek against Brighton, and has delivered a shot on target in all of his last six matches when being deployed solely as a winger, right and/or left.
In fact, when he has started as a winger this season (12 games), he has taken 24 shots and hit the target with 14 of his efforts, registering the required one shot on target in nine of those 12.
It's worth noting his goal involvements too, scoring five and assisting three when playing as a winger, so for those wanting a bigger price, he is 7/2 to score or assist here.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Ipswich vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 5/2 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/20
Bournemouth were impressively dominant against Tottenham in midweek, and are rightly short priced favourites this weekend. However, their away results are a concern.
The Cherries have won just two of seven, losing three. At the same time, Ipswich are winless at home this term, but have avoided defeat in four of seven, holding Fulham, Aston Villa and Manchester United already.
It's going to be a no bet from me here.
Score prediction: Ipswich 0-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Leicester vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 19/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/13
There's not doubt about it, Leicester were fortunate to beat West Ham in midweek. They conceded a lorry-load of chances equating to over 3.0 xG, and a similar performance would see them likely swatted aside by Brighton here.
The Seagulls though, are tough to trust away from home. They have won three and lost three of their seven, but lost the xG in five of those.
At 8/13, they are short enough to leave alone, and the closest I came to making a bet was Brighton 17+ shots at 5/6 (Unibet). The Foxes have conceded an average of 18.1 shots per game this season, though the Seagulls are far from prolific shooters away from home (12.7 per away game).
Score prediction: Leicester 1-3 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Tottenham vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 21/10 | Draw 29/10 | Away evens
Tottenham are in a rut, and Ange Postecoglou is a man on the hot-seat. They have won just one of their last six games in all competitions, that coming against Manchester City at the Etihad, a game they could have so easily been 2-0 down in after 20 minutes.
Ipswich have beaten them at home, and their most recent loss in midweek against Bournemouth was just a shocking display from start to finish. Ange's men lost the xG battle 3.71 - 0.87 in that contest.
Defensively, they have been a mess ever since Micky Van de Ven got injured against Manchester City in the Carabao Cup.
Across their first 12 matches in the league and Europa League, Spurs had conceded 11 goals and averaged 1.13 xGA per game. In the seven games after Van de Ven picked up his injury, they have shipped 10 goals and an average of 2.17 xGA per game.
He's again absent this weekend, and while Christian Romero is expected to be fit enough to play some part, I think Van de Ven is a massively important player in how Postecoglou wants to play, with his pace huge in defending a high-line.
Spurs do pack a punch in attack, but the defensive concerns are too great to ignore, and with CHELSEA cooking at the minute under Enzo Maresca, I'm happy to back the visitors.
They have shortened from 13/10 to even money generally after the midweek fixtures, and while I think the latter is still value, I'll increase the odds and back CHELSEA TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE which is available at 2/1.
Spurs have only failed to score in one home game this season, when hosting Arsenal, while Chelsea have conceded in 12 of their 14 league games to date. Five of their eight league wins have seen both teams score too, including three away.
The Blues are purring, but I think they have a huge rest advantage ahead of this game. Not only did they play Wednesday to Spurs' Thursday, but Maresca rang the changes at Southampton, resting key players, and after going up comfortably against 10-men, brought off more key players early.
Tottenham meanwhile are already depleted, especially at the back, where Ben Davies went off injured in midweek. They were given the runaround at Bournemouth, and this will be their fifth game in 15 games, with all four league matches being against good sides.
I've mentioned that game against Bournemouth a number of times already, but for all the hosts good chances, it was in fact a set-piece goal that decided the game. That is an issue that continues to plague Spurs, even more so without key defensive starters.
Chelsea scored from a set-piece in midweek, their fourth of the season, and are likely to add more over the coming months due to the quality of delivery. Wesley Fofana is out for this game, meaning it will be one of Tosin Adarabioyo, Axel Disasi or BENOIT BADIASHILE partnering Levi Colwill, and given Maresca replaced Fofana with Badiashile last weekend against Villa and rested him in midweek alongside Colwill, I suspect it will be him who is given the nod.
In which case, I'll be backing him TO SCORE ANYTIME at 18/1.
When he has started he has been an attacking threat, firing eight shots in eight games across all competitions this season. He's taken four shots equating to 0.72 xG in the Conference League, being very close to opening his account for the season, but the big 6ft 4in centre back will be licking his lips at the thought of attacking Cole Palmer's in-swinging corners, being marked by someone inferior in size and stature.
Spurs have conceded seven times from set-pieces in all competitions this season, with four centre-backs finding the net. In a strange quirk, all four centre-back goals have come at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Against an undermanned Spurs defence, who are already fragile from set-pieces, a small bet on Badiashile to be the fifth CB to net in Spurs' own back yard makes plenty of appeal. It goes without saying that if he doesn't play and Adarabioyo or Disasi start instead, back them to find the net.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 22
- C Palace 1-1 Man City
- Brentford 3-2 Newcastle
- Aston Villa 3-1 Southampton
- Man Utd 1-1 N Forest
- Fulham 1-2 Arsenal
- Tottenham 1-3 Chelsea
Already advised
Saturday 12:30
1.5pts Everton +1.0 Asian Handicap vs Liverpool at 6/5 (bet365) - VOID
1pt Virgil van Dijk to be carded in Everton vs Liverpool at 23/4 (Unibet) - VOID
Saturday 15:00
2pts Ollie Watkins to score anytime in Aston Villa vs Southampton at evens (Unibet)
1.5pts Daniel Munoz 1+ total shot in C Palace vs Man City at 11/8 (bet365)
1.5pt Brentford to win (Draw no Bet) vs Newcastle at 11/10 (General)
Saturday 17:30
1pt Casemiro to be carded in Man Utd vs N Forest at 41/20 (Unibet)
1pt Kobbie Mainoo to be carded in Man Utd vs N Forest at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Everton vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 6/1 | Draw 18/5 | Away 2/5
NOTE: THIS MATCH WAS POSTPONED ON SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS
Today's Merseyside derby at Goodison Park has been postponed due to adverse weather conditions.
— Everton (@Everton) December 7, 2024
Full details to follow. pic.twitter.com/ikF8iJRTGs
This one could be an emotionally charged and feisty game. It's set to be the final ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park - in the league anyway, these two could be drawn in the FA Cup - so you just know the players and fans of both teams will be even more up for this.
The Toffees come into the game on the back of a 4-0 home thrashing of Wolves, extending their unbeaten home run to five games, while Liverpool let a 3-2 lead slip at Newcastle after a shocking Caoimhin Kelleher error.
This is the cliche banana skin game for Liverpool then, fresh off dropped points against a side in good form at home, in a derby match where Everton will want to close the 'Merseyside derby at Goodison era' with a positive result.
Everton or draw in the double chance market is available at 15/8 in places which looks of interest, but I'll instead take EVERTON +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 6/5 with bet365. This bet wins if Everton avoid defeat, and we have the added security of money back should Liverpool win by a single goal.
As already mentioned, the hosts will be bang up for this and have shown a real steely nature at home, averaging just 1.23 xGA per home game across their last five. This bet, backed blind, would have won in five of their seven home league games, pushed in one and lost only once, way back on the opening weekend of the season.
Liverpool have made hard work of things away from home this term, ever since dismantling Milan 3-1 in the Champions League. In the seven ensuing away games, Arne Slot's men have won five but all have been by a single goal margin - a repeat of which would mean a push for us - and failed to win twice.
Interestingly, the Reds have conceded nine times in their last four road games, including twice at sorry Southampton and three at Newcastle in midweek, perhaps hinting at chinks in the armour.
A second bet here comes from the card markets. If I quizzed you as to who the most carded player has been over the last six Merseyside derby, would your answer be VIRGIL VAN DIJK?
Probably not right, but he is the correct answer. The Dutchman has been cautioned in three of his last five appearances in this derby, with all of them coming in his last three visits to Goodison Park.
For whatever reason, he just gets dragged into the rough and tumble, dishing it out and seemingly just playing on the edge which is something he rarely does. Perhaps he's still angry about having his knee wrecked by Jordan Pickford?
Either way, at bigger than 5/1, he's well worth a punt TO BE CARDED in which will likely be a feisty, foul-heavy contest. Michael Oliver is the referee here too, which is a good appointment for card backers. He's averaged 5.0 per game in the league this season.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Aston Villa vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 13/2
Southampton are just down right bad. They have one win and 11 defeats this season, with Russell Martin's men already seven points from safety. It looks bleak.
Aston Villa snapped their winless run in midweek, and will certainly fancy their chances of making it back-to-back successes, as I do.
I am surprised to see even money available about OLLIE WATKINS TO SCORE ANYTIME here. We are talking about the starting striker of a team 2/5 to get the win on the day, agains a side who prop up the division and who have conceded 30 goals in 14 games this term.
The Englishman has seven goals to his name already this season, netting in two of his last three, though interestingly, five of his seven goals have come at Villa Park.
He has in fact netted in four of his last six home league games, so again, even money? Watkins is averaging 0.70 xG per 90, a figure considerably up on last season's (0.47) when he finished the season with 19 goals.
Add in the fact that Southampton, likely due to the gaps in their defence through sheer incompetence and enjoyment to shoot themselves in the foot, have conceded to opposition strikers in six of their last 12, and we have a cracking looking bet.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Brentford vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 5/4
I'm pretty keen to get BRENTFORD on side here. The Bees have won six and drawn one of their seven home games this season, and while their schedule has been kind, Thomas Frank's side have been dominant in every contest.
Their best win has come against a good Bournemouth team, and I don't think Newcastle are much better than the Cherries. In fact, before midweek, I thought the Magpies had turned into a very average side.
They were excellent against Liverpool, playing with a level of energy and intensity we haven't seen from them for some time. It's all well and good doing that at home in front of a raucous crowd against a title contender, it's another to do it away against a fellow mid-table team.
There is every chance they fail to recover physically from that Wednesday effort, which certainly gives Brentford an edge.
We also have to factor in just how bad Newcastle have been away from home over the last year and a half. In 28 away league games, Eddie Howe's side have won just eight times, losing 13.
This season they are W2 D3 L2, but have lost the xG battle in six of those, averaging 1.41 xGF and 1.86 xGA per away game. That latter figure is a cause for concern against a red-hot Brentford attack, and with the Bees 2/1 outsiders to win the game, backing BRENTFORD DRAW NO BET makes plenty of appeal at 11/10.
This gives us security of money back should the game end all square. If we'd've backed this bet in all of Newcastle's last 28 away league games we would have six more wins than losses.
It looks like a great opportunity to take Newcastle on, with the market perhaps making them shorter off the back of one decent display at home, somewhat overlooking the fact that in their last away game against fourth-bottom Crystal Palace they registered just ONE shot in 90 minutes.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 9/2 | Draw 3/1 | Away 11/20
City finally got back to winning ways in midweek when beating Nottingham Forest, but it wasn't as straight forward as the scoreline suggested, especially not in the first half.
Morgan Gibbs-White forced Stefan Ortega into a good save before Chris Wood squandered a one-on-one opportunity, after which City went up the other end and doubled their lead.
A rejuvenated Palace should get opportunities here, and my eyes are drawn to the 11/8 for DANIEL MUNOZ 1+ SHOT which is available at 11/8.
The Colombian has become a real attacking threat for Crystal Palace, registering at least one shot in six straight games, taking a total of 11 in that period.
In total he's averaged 1.15 shots per 90 this season, so odds against seems generous, especially against such a vulnerable City defence.
Pep's side have lost their last five away games, conceding 12 goals and an average of 11.4 shots and 2.32 xGA per game.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 3/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/1
Well, United were comfortably beaten in their first big test under Ruben Amorim, just reinforcing the size of the task that he faces. It doesn't get any easier either, with a good-in-transition Forest side visiting Old Trafford on Saturday.
Forest gave City a good game in the first half of their midweek match, and had Chris Wood slotted home his big chance, the score would have been 1-1 and who knows what would have happened given City's fragile mental state at the moment. Instead, Pep's side went right up the other end and made it 2-0.
Nuno's side look a big price to get a result in this one, but given what we have seen from Amorim in terms of rotating his XI nearly every game, another couple of bets stand out.
We should expect the new United manager to bring in fresh legs after a gruelling midweek game at Arsenal, especially in midfield, so splitting stakes on CASEMIRO and KOBBIE MAINOO TO BE CARDED looks a sensible way in on Saturday when factoring in their opponent.
The Brazilian has started both weekend league games under Amorim, and been on the bench in both midweek games, with the former Sporting manager openly saying his players aren't fit enough to play two games in a week in the style he wants just yet. Mainoo meanwhile returned from injury against Everton and didn't play midweek due to suspension.
- CLICK HERE to back Casemiro to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Kobbie Mainoo to be carded with Sky Bet
That's right, the English midfielder has already accumulated five yellow cards this season, while Casemiro has been booked in three of his last six across all competitions.
The bet comes alive when factoring that, not only are they asked to press intensely and aggressively in Amorim's system, but they will be up against an awkward Forest attack led by Morgan Gibbs-White.
He has been fouled 1.52 times per 90 this season, most of them cynical fouls. He has started 10 games this season, and an opposing midfielder has been booked in nine of those.
Lewis Cook, Flynn Downes, both Wolves CMs, Ryan Gravenberch, Carlos Baleba, Moises Caicedo, both West Ham CMs, Jens Cajuste and Ilkay Gundogan have fallen victim this season. Only against Newcastle did this angle fail to deliver.
The referee here is Darren England, who has averaged 5.2 cards per game so far this season, so hopefully he continues at that rate here.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1025 (06/12/24)
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