- Jake's Predictions: Staked 178.75pts | Returned 186.83pts | P/L +8.08pts | ROI 4.5%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Dejan Kulusevski to win 2+ fouls in Bournemouth vs Tottenham at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Thursday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 8/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 11/8
I really think Spurs will come unstuck at the Vitality. Unfortunately, the price available for the hosts isn't big enough at 7/4 for me to want to back them, despite their excellent home record and performances.
The Cherries have won the xG battle in all six home games, being unfortunate to have lost twice, and have already beaten Manchester City and Arsenal. They've averaged 1.81 xGF and 1.04 xGA per game in front of their own fans this term.
As for Spurs, they simply don't travel well - unless they get to play in Manchester. Their two road wins to date have come against United and City, while they have already lost at Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Brighton.
I won't put anyone off getting the Cherries onside, but the proposed bet gets me more excited at nearly the same price. We are getting 6/4 about DEJAN KULUSEVSKI TO WIN 2+ FOULS and that price looks huge.
Not only are Bournemouth good performers at home, but they are all over their opponents like a rash. The league leaders in fouls this season (177 - 13.6 per game) up the ante in front of their own fans, making an average of 15.2 fouls per 90.
I suspect we will see a very front-foot display from the Cherries that should mean yet more fouls, and Kulusevski, who has been Spurs' best player this season, will see plenty of attention as floats around the pitch.
The elusive Swede has been fouled 1.52 times per 90 this season, so now up against a high-pressing and very cynical team, I suspect he could find himself on the deck at least twice on Thursday.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 21
- Newcastle 0-2 Liverpool
- Man City 2-1 N Forest
- Southampton 0-2 Chelsea
- Everton 1-1 Wolves
- Arsenal 3-1 Man United
- Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford
Already advised
Tuesday
1.5pts Ismaila Sarr 1+ shot on target in Ipswich vs Crystal Palace (19:30) at 19/20 (Betway)
Wednesday
2pts Both teams to score in Man City vs Nottingham Forest (19:30) at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Liverpool to beat Newcastle (19:30) at 5/6 (Unibet)
2pts Bukayo Saka to score or assist in Arsenal vs Man Utd (20:15) at 17/20 (Unibet)
1.5pts Arsenal -1 handicap vs Man Utd (20:15) at 5/4 (Betfair)
Thursday
Ipswich vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 9/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 7/5
Crystal Palace were really good against Newcastle, utterly dominant in fact (xG: CRY 1.76 - 0.04 NEW). They were unlucky to come away with only a point, but the signs are there that they could well kick into gear and surge into mid-table.
ISMAILA SARR has been a standout performer since coming into the starting XI, and it's the number of shots on target he's registered which catches the eye.
In five games since nailing down a spot in Oliver Glasner's line-up, he's fired 12 shots with nine hitting the target. He's registered 1+ SHOT ON TARGET in four of those five starts, so the 19/20 available for him to register another here certainly appeals.
The Eagles are slowly getting healthier, which means we should view them as more of a mid-table team than relegation candidates, and if their last two games are anything to go by, swashbuckling attacking football could again be in the works.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Leicester vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Tuesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/5
I don't know what to make of West Ham. I don't know what to make of Leicester, either. The Hammers looked okay at St. James' Park, but chaotic and hapless against Arsenal. Leicester have been arguably the worst team in the league this season and now start a fresh with a new manager - Ruud van Nistelrooy.
Too many question marks for me, so it's a no bet. If were to offer a lean it would be in the direction of Facundo Buonanotte to score anytime at around 4/1. He's netted four times in nine starts, shoots on sight (2.48 per 90) and is averaging an impressive 0.36 xG per 90.
A goal and card combo for the Argentinean - who has five yellows to his name in the Premier League - is 18/1 for those wanting a longshot to cheer on.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
It was a small profit last weekend, and hopefully the halting of losing train means we can start seeing more green as variance leans in our favour.
A few takeaways - Liverpool and Arsenal are good, very good. Chelsea could well be the third best team in the league.
Ruud van Nistelrooy has one hell of a job on his hands keeping Leicester up. Julen Lopeegui is walking a tightrope. Newcastle look a shell of the team we saw a few years ago and Villa already look tired in what is still early in a very long season for Unai Emery's side.
You probably knew some (or most of this already). Anyway, onto the midweek action.
Everton vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/10
Nothing jumped out to me at Goodison Park from a betting perspective in what I expect to be a very close game. I wouldn't be going near the Toffees at such a short price, while Wolves remain wide open defensively and also untrustworthy.
The closest I got to a bet was Under 3.5 cards, with Everton's matches averaging just 2.69 per game. Referee Michael Salisbury has a career card per game average of 3.1, but Wolves have been mental for cards (5.31 per game) which put me off taking the 8/5 shot (William Hill)
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
It is now seven games without a win for Manchester City. SEVEN! Pep Guardiola's side have been beaten six times in that run and conceded 19 times, so it is somewhat surprising to see BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE dangled at 10/11 in midweek.
Across their winless run, City have averaged 1.83 xGF and 2.33 xGA per game - that second figure incredibly alarming. They are being carved open by everyone, so high-flying Forest, who can leapfrog City with a win at the Etihad, will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet.
We should see some sort of reaction from Pep's side in attack after they were stifled by Liverpool, and the data suggests they will create more than enough to find the net at least once.
Funnily enough, even when City were at their best and had a full complement last season, BTTS landed in 12 of 19 games at the Etihad (63%), while it has already won four of six times this season (67%), and it really should have been five of six - somehow City failed to score in the defeat to Spurs despite racking up 2.14 xG.
Forest have only failed to score in one of their away games this season, and that came at a resurgent Arsenal last time out.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Newcastle vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/5
At any other moment in time, I may be looking to oppose Liverpool at St. James' Park. Not in this game though. It looks as though this is a good time for the Reds to face Newcastle.
Not only are they red-hot, winning 18 of Arne Slot's first 20 games in charge across all competitions, but Newcastle are freezing cold.
They were atrocious at Crystal Palace last time out, registering just one shot and scoring via an own goal, and they weren't much better against West Ham before that.
Now down in 10th, they are where they deserve to be based on xG data. St. James' had been a fortress across the last two season's, but performances in front of their own fans have been shocking.
In 22/23 they posted an excellent +1.53 xGD per game and ranked second on home xP. In 23/24 that dropped slightly to a still great +1.33 xGD per game and ranked fourth on home xP. This season through six games it's down into the negative, averaging -0.12 xGD per game and sitting fifth bottom on home xP.
That basically means that Newcastle are being out-created on a game-to-game basis at home, which is not going to lead to many points if sustained. It's a strange drop off to go from utterly dominant to second best.
Liverpool can take full advantage. Slot's team have won every away game bar one (at Arsenal) this season, and have averaged 2.46 xGF and 0.97 xGA per game. They also have the option to rotate players that Newcastle simply don't.
Alexander Isak is a doubt for this which is a blow for the hosts, while Callum Wilson is still not quite ready to start, so a jaded and dazed Newcastle team could be lacking a real cutting edge against the league's best defence.
The final point as to why LIVERPOOL TO WIN is the bet here at 5/6, is that a Rodri-less Manchester City went off at 4/6 at St. James' Park earlier this season. We've just witnessed how much better this Liverpool team is than a Rodri-less City team, so the price on offer looks cracking value.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Southampton vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/5
This could be a very one-sided game, with Chelsea purring and Southampton continuing to struggle.
They should struggle even more here without three key players due to suspension, with all of Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes and Tyler Dibling all out.
The Blues could ring the changes and still win handily, but no bet is advised with the value just not there for a big Chelsea win (-1 only available handicap at 10/11).
If I could guarantee that Nicolas Jackson would start, he would be the pick in the goalscorer market, generally priced around 13/10. He's scored four in his last six league games and is averaging 0.61 xG per 90.
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Arsenal vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 4/9 | Draw 7/2 | Away 11/2
I strongly fancy Arsenal to win this one comfortably. Manchester United under Ruben Amorim have so far played Ipswich, Bodo/Glimt and Everton, with Arsenal a huge step up in class for a team still trying to get up to speed with their new manager's asks.
The Red Devils were poor at Portman Road, unfortunate not to win by a wider margin against Bodo but very fortunate to win so comfortably against the Toffees. Since the international break, the Gunners have thrashed everyone they have played, scoring 13 in their three outings.
I suspect we'll see yet more changes from Amorim as his side struggle to deal with the demands of playing such an intense and physically draining style twice in such a short timeframe, which only strengthens the case for the hosts.
We can back ARSENAL -1 HANDICAP at 13/10 and that bet, which won for us at the weekend, again makes plenty of appeal.
Mikel Arteta's side really are firing at the moment, and should relish the chance of playing against this United side at this current moment - where the players are still not fully up to speed with Amorim's tactics. The high press could be put to the sword by a much higher quality opponent.
United have looked open and vulnerable even against sides nowhere near the calibre of Arsenal, so the Gunners could really have a field day at the Emirates.
While it may be viewed as lazy, I think the second bet that won for us last time out is again worth backing, with BUKAYO SAKA TO SCORE OR ASSIST looking nice at a juicy 17/20.
He had just the three goal involvements at the London Stadium - one goal, two assists - to take his tallies for the Premier League season to five goals and 10 assists in 12 outings. His expected goal involvement per 90 stands at an impressive 0.77, and this bet has won in nine of his 12 league appearances.
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Aston Villa vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 3/4 | Draw 29/10 | Away 3/1
Aston Villa are winless in eight games across all competitions. There is something going very wrong at the moment. Fatigue could be the answer, with Unai Emery's men having played 20 games already, something they just aren't accustomed to.
If Brentford had shown anything at all away from home (W0 D1 L5) I'd be looking to make a pro-Brentford bet. As it is, they've struggled against an admittedly difficult schedule, already losing all matches against last season's top six.
I'll leave this one alone from a punting perspective.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Fulham vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Thursday
- TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Home 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/5
This could be a cracking, end-to-end game. Fulham and Brighton are both excelling this season, and both play an attacking style no matter the opponent, so we could see a high-scoring clash.
I was close to tipping Georginio Rutter 3+ total shots, which is available at a standout 9/5 with Unibet (as short as 4/5 elsewhere). The ex-Leeds man as averaged 3.40 shots per 90 across his last 10 starts, this bet landing in five of those.
However, nearly all of his high shot games have come at the Amex which is a concern, and I have great respect for this Fulham defence, so I'll settle with a no bet and enjoy what will (hopefully) be an entertaining game.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1545 (02/12/24)
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