- Jake's Predictions: Staked 130pts | Returned 139.67pts | P/L +9.22pts | ROI 6.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Manchester United to keep a clean sheet vs Ipswich (16:30) at 9/5 (William Hill)
Everyone, rejoice! We have no more international breaks until MARCH.
It's club football for four straight months now, meaning we as bettors and fans can hit a rhythm, just the same way players and teams can.
The last edition of this column saw a small loss made, but it could have been so much worst, and we remain in the green for now.
Onto this weekend and I've two game where nothing appealed, but quite a few bigger priced fancies to chance.
Ipswich vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/7
Another new era begins at Manchester United, with Ruben Amorim taking over after a poor start to the season from Erik ten Hag.
Such a drastic change mid-season does mean it is difficult to be too confident around any selections, but one in particular has taken my fancy.
I'll be backing MANCHESTER UNITED TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET as Amorim takes his new team to Portman Road, with the 9/5 on offer very generous.
To be honest, even if this was an Erik ten Hag-led United, I'd still back the bet at this price, as for all the results and performances have been lacking this season, defensively they are drastically improved on last term.
Believe it or not, the Red Devils currently sit second in the league for clean sheets this season, keeping five in 11 outings, and two have those have come in their only two matches against the current bottom six.
Those two also happen to be Ipswich's fellow promoted sides Southampton and Leicester, United dispatching both 3-0. They allowed 0.42 and 0.63 non-penalty xGA respectively in those matches.
United's issues have come against the better sides. Liverpool and Spurs fired three past them (the latter with the caveat of United playing with 10-men for the second half), while Brighton also scored a couple.
West Ham managed to find the net twice but again there were some strange circumstances in that one. United limited the Hammers to just 0.04 xG in the first half, only to capitulate in the second and lose to a very, very dubious penalty call.
All in all, there are positives defensively, with United allowing less than 1.1 xGA in seven of 11 outings, and that provides a really solid foundation for Amorim to work from, and his 3-4-3 system should solidify things even more, with a defensive-minded double-pivot protecting a back three.
On Sunday, United face the side dead-last in terms of xGF per game this season (0.93), and as the new Portuguese coach gets his feet under the table, defensive solidity absolutely takes precedent over attacking flair.
Score prediction: Ipswich 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Chelsea to win and Under 4.5 Goals vs Leicester (12:30) at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Murillo to win 1+ foul in Arsenal vs N Forest at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Murillo to win 2+ fouls in Arsenal vs N Forest at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Nikola Milenkovic to win 1+ foul in Arsenal vs N Forest at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Will Hughes to be carded in Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace at 13/5 (Unibet)
1pt Fulham to win and BTTS vs Wolves at 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1.5pts Man City to win and BTTS vs Tottenham at 7/5 (bet365)
1pt Heung-min Son to score or assist at 9/5 (William Hill)
1pt Erling Haaland to score a header at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt e.w. Virgil van Dijk to score first in Southampton vs Liverpool (14:00) at 28/1 (Sky Bet, 1/3 1-99)
0.5pt Ibrahima Konate to score first in Southampton vs Liverpool (14:00) at 35/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Ibrahima Konate to score anytime in Southampton vs Liverpool (14:00) at 11/1 (Unibet)
Southampton vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 17/2 | Draw 19/4 | Away 1/4
After the high of edging out Everton for a first league win of the season, Southampton were thumped back down to earth by fellow strugglers Wolves before the break. Now they must get ready to face the league leaders.
The trend with Southampton is a simple one - they can't defend set-pieces - and on Sunday they face a side possessing two huge attacking threats from dead-ball situations.
VIRGIL VAN DIJK and IBRAHIMA KONATE should be licking their lips at the thought of parading up for corners and free-kicks this weekend, and I'm going to split stakes on both of them TO SCORE FIRST, with the each-way offering providing us a bigger price than taking anytime on VVD, though for Konate it's better to take the two individually depending on where you bet.
- CLICK HERE to back Virgil van Dijk to score first with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Ibrahima Konate to score first with Sky Bet
Southampton have conceded the second most goals (7), the third most shots (58) and the most xGA (7.28) from set-pieces this season.
For context as to how leaky they are, Russell Martin's men have allowed an average of 0.66 xGA from set-pieces alone this season - Liverpool have allowed 0.86 per game in total.
The Reds haven't been the most threatening side from set-pieces, but I feel as though that's due to the fact they have played teams capable at defending dead-ball situations for the most part.
The only side they have faced this season who are as bad as Southampton from set-pieces was Wolves, a game which saw Ibrahim Konate get on the scoresheet. In total, both Van Dijk and Konate have scored twice this season in all competitions - with both netting in the same game in Milan.
Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Manchester City vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 4/11 | Draw 4/1 | Away 6/1
According to reports, Manchester City's injuries are healing ahead of hosting Tottenham.
Their likely starting line-up on Saturday - again, according to reports - is: Ederson; Walker, Stones, Akanji, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Gundogan; Bernardo, Foden, Savinho; Haaland.
Barring Ballon D'or winner Rodri, that's a near full strength XI, and that likely spells trouble for a Tottenham side missing both starting centre-backs here (Christian Romero and Micky van de Ven).
Spurs haven't travelled well for some time either. Across their last 15 away league games, Ange Postecoglou's side have won just three times, losing eight, conceding 29 goals.
This could be a bad time to face a wounded animal then. A side chasing a fifth straight Premier League title, who can't afford to fall further behind leaders Liverpool.
I do really want to get City onside, the question is how. A CITY WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE looks value to me even at a price of 7/5.
Spurs, while showcasing defensive deficiencies, have real firepower and it would be a surprise to see them fail to score at the Etihad in what should be a ding-dong tussle.
Both teams have scored in 17 of City's last 24 home games, with a City win and BTTS landing in 12 of those for a 50% strike rate.
In short, I think City will out-score Spurs on Saturday.
A couple of other angles for me, one focuses on a City weakness and the other a Spurs one.
City, even with Rodri in the team, have shown real struggles in dealing with fast breaks for some time now, and Spurs are the league's best at just that.
Ange's men have scored the most goals from fast breaks this season (7), while 10 of the 86 shots City have faced have come from such scenarios.
Who better, then, than HEUNG-MIN SON to take advantage and SCORE OR ASSIST?
Spurs' captain has gone under the radar this season, but has scored three and assisted three in eight starts, with his expected goal involvement per 90 (xG + xA) an impressive 0.54.
He's one of the best at taking advantage of space on the counter, and has had a great time at the Etihad in recent years, scoring one and assisting three across his last three visits - this bet winning in two of those.
The final bet is one we've had a few times already this season, without reward; ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE A HEADER.
He's been mightily close for us, but no cigar just yet. This looks a good match-up for him to pounce, especially with Spurs missing their starting centre-backs.
The big Norwegian has had 25 headed shots equating to 3.88 xG in the league and Champions League this season without finding the net once, but the volume of headed shots highlights how consistently he is threatening with his noggin.
He warmed his blonde locks up for us too with a headed goal against Kazakhstan in his most recent outing, where he also bagged a hat-trick.
Spurs remain defensively vulnerable from all aspects but especially from set-pieces, with only Southampton and Leicester allowing more xGA from dead-ball situations, and only Wolves and Everton conceding more headed goals.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/3 | Draw 19/5 | Away 15/2
This is a big game for Arsenal, who face fifth-placed Nottingham Forest looking to get back to winning ways - the Gunners failing to win any of their last four league matches.
Unfortunately for Mikel Arteta, he could be without some key players here. Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori are definitely out, while Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice are questionable having picked up injuries in their last match at Chelsea, both missing England's Nations League wins.
I don't think the Gunners can deal without Saka with such limited cover, but if Rice is absent they should be able to manage, a likely Thomas Partey-Mikel Merino double pivot behind the now-fit-again Martin Odegaard.
The trend that catches my eye though is that Arsenal have made it a habit of fouling their opponents centre-backs. Across 15 league and Champions League matches, at least one of the opposing CB's has been fouled in 12 of them, so splitting stakes on MURILLO and NIKOLA MILENKOVIC 1+ FOULS WON appeals.
- CLICK HERE to back Murillo to win 1+ foul with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Nikola Milenkovic to win 1+ foul with Sky Bet
A glance at the pairs fouls won data would suggest that I'm mad for wanting to back this, both having been felled just once each, but this bet is more about Arsenal's propensity to foul opposing CB's through their high press.
Milenkovic is 11/8 to be fouled, with Murillo 5/2, and the latter's price in particular looks large given Arsenal have fouled nine of the 15 left-sided centre-back's they have faced. These bets are as short as 10/11 and 6/4 respectively elsewhere.
Arsenal are aggressive, and in Kai Havertz they have one of the more physical forwards in the league who doesn't mind throwing his weight around. Gabriel Jesus could also come into the game off the bench and he too is a fouling machine.
Given the stats around the left-sided CB's, I'll also have a small play on MURILLO 2+ FOULS WON.
Nine of the 15 LCB's have been fouled by Arsenal, with four of those being fouled twice or more. It's 16/1 on Sky Bet, 17/2 elsewhere.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 17/4
Crystal Palace's injury issues prior to the international break were so bad that captain Marc Guehi had to play central midfield alongside 21-year-old debutant Justin Devenny.
Post-break, Oliver Glasner should have Cheick Doucoure back fit to start after a lengthy lay-off, and WILL HUGHES returns from suspension meaning we should see a more accomplished midfield duo at Villa Park, with Eberechi Eze tough-and-go for this clash.
It's Hughes who appeals greatly though TO BE CARDED, as not only has he picked up five yellows already this term, but he'll be tasked with dealing with Villa's extremely tricky forwards, most notably Morgan Rogers.
He's 13/5 with Unibet to pick up a card which in isolation looks massive for a player booked in five of his last six matches across all competitions in which he's played over 15 minutes, and who has committed an average of 2.76 fouls per 90.
Factor in that Villa's midfield are excellent at getting their opponents carded - Rogers responsible for drawing nine opposition cards, Youri Tielemans six - and the price starts to look irresistible. He's 11/10 in places, and those that can't get on at Unibet should take the 12/5 with bet365 or the 9/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair.
Tim Robinson is the man in the middle, with his card per game average of 5.8 another huge positive for this bet.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Bournemouth vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/5
Boy this one is a tough game to call.
Bournemouth have been sensational at home this season winning three of five against a tough schedule (NEW, CHE, SOU, ARS, MCI).
Wins against Arsenal and City have been thoroughly deserved, and so far this season their underlying data at the Vitality is excellent (1.85 xGF, 1.06 xGA per game).
So, I was all ready to back the hosts here at 11/8, but I just can't pull the trigger, with Brighton looking capable of beating anyone anywhere.
Not only were they brilliant in victory over Manchester City last time out, but they have been to Newcastle and Everton and won, holding Arsenal at the Emirates and pushing Chelsea and Liverpool close.
No bet for me in this one.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Everton vs Brentford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/5
This is another game I really struggled to find a strong betting angle.
The bookies look to have priced things pretty well, and I think the draw is a serious runner, the Toffees having held Newcastle and Fulham in their last two at Goodison Park.
Brentford are pointless in five away games, but they have faced Liverpool, Man City, Spurs, Man Utd and a good Fulham team.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Fulham vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/13 | Draw 3/1 | Away 19/5
Fulham are legit. How legit is the question.
Are the capable of contending for a top four or six finish? Or are they just an eighth or ninth place team?
If that intro comes as a shock to you, and you are wondering what the hell I'm on about, well the Cottagers are seventh just a point off third, but more impressively they rank as the fourth best team this season according to xG data.
Since losing at Old Trafford on the opening weekend, Marco Silva's men have won the xG battle in EVERY single game they have played across all competitions - 12 games in a row - including at the Etihad. That is very, very impressive.
At the Cottage, their underlying process has been strong this season, averaging 1.75 xGF and 1.04 xGA per game, and now they get to face a struggling travelling side in Wolves.
Gary O'Neil's side are winless away from home, allowing 2.21 xGA per game and conceding 13 times across five outings. They look especially vulnerable defensively, but going forward they really do have the capability to get on the scoresheet.
They have scored in 10 of 11 league games this season, only failing to do so in their opener at the Emirates, so I like the look of FULHAM TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE here at 9/4.
Both teams have scored in all five Fulham home games, with three of those resulting in a win for Silva's men.
The market has it more likely that Fulham win to nil as opposed to win and BTTS, which I simply don't agree with.
Score prediction: Fulham 3-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Leicester vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 19/4 | Draw 7/2 | Away 1/2
I'm very confident about a CHELSEA WIN here. And why wouldn't you be?
The Blues have been very impressive so far this season, and while their five wins from 11 games may not reflect it, Enzo Maresca's side are a team to get onside over the next few months.
Their two defeats have come to Manchester City and Liverpool, and the Blues have won three of four against sides in the bottom half of the table, though the deserved to win all four according to expected goals (xG: CHE 2.37 - 0.54 CRY).
Leicester meanwhile have been the worst home side in the league this season according to the underlying data, accumulating the fewest expected points (0.67 per game) and the fewest xGF per game (0.98).
Steve Cooper's men will set up to frustrate here, and it's highly unlikely this turns into a ding-dong battle as Maresca returns to the team he won the Championship with last season.
He'll be looking to make a statement in his typically controlled fashion, so backing a CHELSEA WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS makes great appeal at odds-against.
Only two of Chelsea's 11 games have seen five or more goals this season, and it's the same for Leicester. I think there is a clear gulf between these two sides, with the Blues set to kick on off after a tough last four league games (LIV, NEW, MUN, ARS).
Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 18
- Arsenal 2-1 N Forest
- Aston Villa 2-0 C Palace
- Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton
- Man City 3-1 Tottenham
- Southampton 0-2 Liverpool
- Ipswich 0-1 Man Utd
Odds correct at 1650 (21/11/24)
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