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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 11
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 130pts | Returned 139.67pts | P/L +9.67pts | ROI 7.4%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 15:00
2pts Bournemouth most corners vs Brentford at 23/20 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1.5pts Eddie Nketiah to win 2+ fouls in C Palace vs Fulham at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Dwight McNeil 1+ shot on target in West Ham vs Everton at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Flynn Downes to win 2+ fouls in Wolves vs Southampton at 17/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 17:30
2pts Erling Haaland to score anytime in Brighton vs Man City at evens (Unibet)
Saturday 20:00
1pt Ryan Gravenberch to be carded in Liverpool vs Aston Villa at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
***Sunday's games to be added on Friday
After such a good week nine, week 10 wasn't so good.
We finished just shy of 5pts down, giving away half the profit from the previous week. Most of that, was again thanks to Tottenham, who got to six corners and took their foot off the gas when we needed a seventh. Cheers lads.
Even more annoyingly, two of the three centre-back goalscorers selected had attempts on goal without scoring. Anyhow, onto this weekend.
Brentford vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/8
Bournemouth have had a pretty good couple of weeks haven't they. Wins over Arsenal and Manchester City either side of a draw at Villa Park.
They are up to 10th and will be fancying their chances of getting another win this weekend against a Brentford team who capitulated at Fulham on Monday.
The bet for me though comes in the corner market, where the bookies have it nearly a pick'em between the side as to who will win the MOST CORNERS, whereas I'd have BOURNEMOUTH odds-on.
Andoni Iraola's side have won the third more corners in the league this season behind only Manchester City and Tottenham, while the Bees have conceded the second most corners in the league this term.
The Cherries have won 7.0 corners per away game through five matches, while Thomas Frank's side have lost the corner battle in three of five home games including against lowly Southampton and Ipswich.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Crystal Palace vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 8/5
Crystal Palace have had a good couple of weeks, beating Tottenham at Selhurst Park, winning in the Carabao Cup at Aston Villa and drawing their last away league game against Wolves.
The injuries and suspensions are piling up for Oliver Glasner's side though, with Adam Wharton, Eberechi Eze, Jefferson Lerma and Will Hughes all out for this game. That means Daichi Kamada should again be deployed in a deeper role, likely alongside Cheick Doucoure who may have been rushed back to full fitness as a result of the midfield crisis.
Subsequently we should again see EDDIE NKETIAH deployed in one of the two number 10 positions in this Palace system, meaning his price TO WIN 2+ FOULS stands out greatly at 5/4.
Since transferring from Arsenal, Nketiah has seen his fouls won numbers spike due to playing in a slightly deeper role, winning 14 in just 489 minutes - a per 90 average of 2.59.
He has been fouled two or more times in five of six starts, so it is somewhat surprising to see odds-against available for a repeat here.
For context, his fellow number 10, Ismaila Sarr, is priced at 8/13 to win 2+ fouls despite averaging a lower fouls per 90 (1.85) and having only one 2+ fouls won game.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
West Ham vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/10
I still have no idea what West Ham are this season. Beating Manchester United and following it up with a 3-0 thrashing at Nottingham Forest.
I do know all about DWIGHT MCNEIL though, as he has treated us very well this season, and I'm more than happy to wade back in on the Englishman to register 1+ SHOT ON TARGET on Saturday.
The 13/10 price on offer looks huge for a bet that has won in six of his last eight league starts, with McNeil making the most of playing in the number 10 position for the Toffees.
West Ham have conceded the fourth most shots in the league this season (161), so McNeil will get plenty of opportunities to get a shot away and test the goalkeeper on Saturday.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Wolves vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/5
We are very close to must-win territory for Wolves, who sit bottom of the table and remain one of only two winless sides this season. They take on Southampton this weekend who got off the mark against Everton last weekend.
It's fair to say this is, on paper, the easiest game of the season so far for Gary O'Neil's side, who have faced an extremely tough schedule up to this point, and we know just how they will approach this game - on the front foot, pressing aggressively and looking to outscore their opponents.
That should lead to plenty of fouls here as Southampton will likely dominate possession and Wolves will be nipping at their heels looking for high turnovers.
Looking at the prices, the 17/10 about Saints midfielder FLYNN DOWNES to WIN 2+ FOULS looks massive.
Renowned for making fouls and collecting cards, it's perhaps gone under the radar just how many times Downes has been fouled this season, with him drawing only one fewer (17) than he has made (18).
He's the joint-14th most fouled player in the league this season, winning 1.71 per 90, so such a big price about 2+ fouls won appears like huge value.
It's a bet that has landed in six of his 10 games this season, and up against this swarming Wolves forward and midfield line, it wouldn't be a surprise were he to draw a couple more here. I wouldn't put anyone off backing 3+ fouls won as well, available at 11/2, which has won in four of 10 outings.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Brighton vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 16/5 | Draw 29/10 | Away 8/11
Sorry to be Mr. Obvious but I can't turn down ERLING HAALAND's price TO SCORE ANYTIME here.
We are getting a standout even money with Unibet and 10/11 with bet365 (which is also fine), with some bookies as short as 8/15.
Haaland has 11 goals in the Premier League and is averaging 0.97 xG per 90.
Manchester City may be struggling, losing three games in a week, but they will get chances against Brighton.
The Seagulls play a wide open style of football that leaves them especially vulnerable to fast breaks with a vast amount of space to be exploited.
Which player in the league is better at doing so than Haaland?
Score prediction: Brighton 2-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 2/5 | Draw 19/5 | Away 21/4
This could be a feisty game. I expect Liverpool to get the job done, but it won't be easy, that's for sure.
Villa and Unai Emery are having a bit of wobble at the moment, but you know they will set up to frustrate and counter here - something Nottingham Forest have already done so successfully at Anfield this term.
The visitors do look a tad overpriced, but I've been drawn to the huge price of 5/1 about RYAN GRAVENBERCH TO BE CARDED.
The Dutchman already has two cards to his name this season and his foul output has increased recently after a lull. He made just four fouls in five games prior to the last international break, but since returning he's made six in three - all against good sides (Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton).
In this game he will be directly up against the direct dribbling, pacey Morgan Rogers who will fully test him given the fact the Villa man will have space to operate on the break. So far this season Villa have seen 11 opposing midfielders booked, with a large part of that down to Rogers.
The referee for this game is David Coote, who so far this season has averaged 5.6 cards per game in the Premier League, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a flurry of yellows, let's just hope Gravenberch is among those to have his name taken.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 17
- West Ham 2-1 Everton
- C Palace 1-1 Fulham
- Brighton 2-2 Man City
- Liverpool 1-0 Aston Villa
- N Forest v Newcastle*
- Chelsea v Arsenal*
*Will be added Friday
Odds correct at 1515 (07/11/24)
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