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Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 10
- Jake's Predictions: Staked 118pts | Returned 132.45pts | P/L +14.45pts | ROI 12.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Nicolas Jackson to score anytime in Man Utd vs Chelsea (16:30) at 23/10 (Unibet)
Manchester United vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 6/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 6/4
Well, this game has become even more difficult to call. No Erik ten Hag makes United a bit of a wildcard, while Chelsea are a wildcard week-to-week anyway in my book.
The change in the dugout could be the spark that ignites United to put on a performance, but if I were to pick – which I have to given this is a Super 6 game and I'm writing a column with Super 6 predictions – I'd probably still lean towards Chelsea to win.
The Blues have been pretty impressive under Enzo Maresca, and the squad depth they have is incredible. Their bench is full of game-changers, while United's isn't, and that could well be the difference.
I'm picking a starting player to make a splash though, with NICOLAS JACKSON's price TO SCORE ANYTIME looking large at 23/10.
This is a player who has netted six times already this season from 6.04 xG – finishing as he should – with his xG per 90 of 0.78 bettered only by two Premier League players this season.
He's turning into a serious problem for opposition defenders, scoring all types of goals, and he should get chances here against a United team who are vulnerable defensively at the best of times, but will be even more so under Ruud van Nistelrooy as he looks to bring 'Man United football' back.
This is going to be an end-to-end, ding-dong battle, and Jackson can take advantage. He's scored in five of nine Premier League starts and gets roughly 77 minutes before being subbed, which is plenty of time to get on the scoresheet in what could be a cracker to round off the weekend.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 15
- Liverpool 3-1 Brighton
- Bournemouth 1-2 Manchester City
- Nottingham Forest 1-1 West Ham
- Wolves 2-2 Crystal Palace
- Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa
- Manchester United 2-3 Chelsea
Already advised
1pt Declan Rice to be carded in Newcastle vs Arsenal at 19/5 (Unibet)
1pt Mikel Merino to be carded in Newcastle vs Arsenal at 29/10 (Unibet)
1pt Lewis Cook to be carded in Bournemouth vs Man City at 15/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Dara O'Shea to score anytime in Ipswich vs Leicester at 11/1 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Cameron Burgess to score anytime in Ipswich vs Leicester at 12/1 (General)
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ assist in Liverpool vs Brighton at 7/2 (William Hill)
0.5pt Jarrad Branthwaite to score anytime in Southampton vs Everton at 14/1 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt James Tarkowski to score anytime in Southampton vs Everton at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Over 2.5 goals in Wolves vs Crystal Palace at 10/11 (bet365)
2pts Tottenham 7+ corners vs Aston Villa (14:00) at 10/11 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Tottenham 9+ corners vs Aston Villa (14:00) at 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Well last week went rather well. We finished the weekend +9.1pts in profit, and while we should focus on the many positives, as always in this game of betting, we rue some close calls that denied us what would have been a huge profit.
Aston Villa conceded a 96th-minute equaliser, Erling Haaland had four headed shots without scoring, Rasmus Hojlund missed from five yards with a chance he had a 59% chance of scoring according to xG, and Tottenham finished on eight corners despite reaching that number after 50 minutes.
We can't get hung up on the losers given the profit made but it could have been a cracker. The other positive is that all angles taken won or went close, apart from Reece James to be carded. Who knew he'd play left-back and Anthony Gordon would be injured?
Anyway, onto this weekend, and let's hope it's half as good as the last one.
Newcastle vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 11/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 10/11
While Newcastle's form has taken a nosedive – no wins and three defeats in the last five league games – what hasn't halted is their ability to get opposing midfielders carded.
It was an angle I touted when the Magpies hosted Brighton, tipping Carlos Baleba only for his midfield partner Jack Hinshelwood to be carded, and after Romeo Lavia's card last weekend, a midfielder has been carded in each of their last eight league games.
In total, 11 of the 18 midfielders to start against Newcastle in those eight games have picked up a card which is an incredible return.
So that means DECLAN RICE and MIKEL MERINO both look solid options TO BE CARDED when Arsenal come visiting.
- CLICK HERE to back Declan Rice to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Mikel Merino to be carded with Sky Bet
Given the Gunners' various injuries and suspensions we should again see Thomas Partey play at right-back, meaning a Rice-Merino double pivot could be used for a team now even more desperate for wins after falling five points behind Manchester City.
Rice has been carded in three games already this season and committed two fouls last weekend in a high-octane clash with Liverpool, while Merino picked up 14 yellows in total last season for Real Sociedad and was very fortunate to avoid a card last weekend after committing four fouls.
Newcastle's midfield are extremely dynamic and are excellent foul drawers, and that, combined with Rice and Merino's recent performances and the need for points from both teams should mean a fiery encounter.
Referee John Brooks is a decent appointment too, averaging 4.86 cards per 90 this season.
I won't be officially tipping the double, but for those that way inclined, it's 20/1 for both Merino and Rice to be carded on Saturday (Unibet).
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 17/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 8/15
Bournemouth welcome Manchester City on the back of a win against Arsenal and a draw away at Aston Villa. They couldn't get a result against another of last season's top four could they?
I see it as unlikely. The win over the Gunners was largely down to the William Saliba red card, while the Cherries stole a point at Villa Park, losing the xG battle 1.81 - 0.31.
They'll give it a good go and will certainly get stuck in, Andoni Iraola's side have climbed back to the top of the foul charts after a slow start, the Cherries averaging 14 per game.
That approach will continue here, and with the card happy Michael Oliver overseeing this game, cards should flow, which is why I've been drawn to LEWIS COOK TO BE CARDED at 15/4.
The Englishman has been booked three times already in the league this season, two of those coming against top sides in Liverpool and Chelsea, while he has committed 19 fouls – a tally topped only by Wolves' Joao Gomes and Newcastle's Joelinton.
His fouls per 90 average stands at 2.13, and given he'll be tasked with keeping on top of Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva in this game, there seems a good chance he will end up in the referee's book.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Ipswich vs Leicester
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 2/1
This is a huge game for both newly promoted teams. Ipswich and Leicester have both been very poor this season, highlighted by the fact that the pair prop up the expected points table and occupy two of the top three spots in expected goals against (xGA).
Leicester's set-piece issues remain glaring, and we should again wade in on big-priced defenders.
DARA O'SHEA is a huge threat for Ipswich and has had a shot in five of his six starts for the Tractor Boys, as well as both starts for Burnley this season before his move. He does have a goal to his name this season, netting for the Clarets against Luton in the Championship opener.
He is priced at 11/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME which looks worth a small punt.
The Republic of Ireland international found the net three times in the Premier League last season for hapless Burnley, too.
I think CAMERON BURGESS will start alongside him again, and at the same price, we'll back him TO SCORE ANYTIME as well.
In two starts this season he's taken three shots, while last season in the Championship he scored twice.
The Foxes have conceded the most shots from set-pieces (55) in the league this season, with only Southampton conceding a higher xGA from such scenarios (6.00).
Last weekend against Nottingham Forest they conceded four chances from set-pieces, with centre-back Murillo getting on the end of two of them.
Somehow Steve Cooper's side have only shipped one goal from dead-ball situations, but we shouldn't be surprised to see them go on a run of conceding from set-pieces, with regression occurring.
Score prediction: Ipswich 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Liverpool vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Away 11/2
These two played out a thrilling Carabao Cup tie in midweek, with the Reds coming away with a 3-2 win. I expect a repeat here but the 6/4 available for a Liverpool win and BTTS doesn't really appeal.
Instead, I like the look of the bet I tipped in midweek yet again, with TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD 1+ ASSIST worth backing at 7/2.
He didn't start in midweek so will be fresh for this game, and he's been banging hard on the assists door.
The Englishman has only one assist to his name so far in the Premier League, but he should have triple that tally according to underlying numbers, with his expected assist figure at 2.87 – an average of 0.34 per 90 which ranks fifth highest in the top flight (of players to play 400+ minutes).
He got two 'pre-assists' last weekend against Arsenal, with his corner delivery getting a flick on before resulting in the first goal while his sumptuous through ball was squared for the second.
Both are serious avenues against Brighton, with Liverpool's set-piece dominance of late eye-catching, while the visitors' high-line could be easily exposed by a direct through ball from one of England's great passers.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 9/4
This is a game I find difficult to call. Nottingham Forest have been excellent this season, but I don't think I can trust them at 6/5 here.
West Ham have shown flashes of what they are capable of under Julen Lopetegui, the second half last weekend against Manchester United a prime example, but are extremely untrustworthy.
No bet here, but I can see it ending all square.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Southampton vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 8/5
I won't change tack anytime soon when it comes to Southampton games. So far Wout Faes and Nathan Collins have helped us take advantage of Saints' set-piece struggles, while Erling Haaland came very close last weekend, with half of his eight shots coming via dead-ball situations.
So far this season Russell Martin's men have conceded seven goals in nine games from corners or free-kicks, and lead the league in terms of xGA conceded from such scenarios (6.3 - 0.70 per game).
This weekend they face an Everton team who lead the Premier League in set-piece xG since the start of last season. You know by now where this is going...
JARROD BRANTHWAITE is a monstrous 14/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME which has to be taken.
The tall centre-back was the catalyst for Everton's season turning around, returning from injury to help them get their first win of the season against Crystal Palace before picking up another knock.
He's back fit again though, and we should see him thrust straight into the starting line-up by Sean Dyche. Last season he scored three times and the season prior he bagged two in the Eredivisie. He should get an opportunity or two against a vulnerable defence.
JAMES TARKOWSKI is also priced at 14/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME which is too big to turn down given he will start. If he was 8/1 I would be leaving him alone but at almost twice that we have to be a backer.
The Englishman has taken six shots this season, 25 (with one goal) last term and 32 (one goal) the season before. He's an aerial threat, and should get chances against a vulnerable Saints backline.
Of course it goes without saying that if Michael Keane gets the nod over either of these two, he should be backed having scored twice already this season from set-pieces. He is currently available at 11/1 (bet365, BoyleSports, Sky Bet) to score anytime, and if you bet with a bookmaker who offers a void bet if the player doesn't start, I'd be backing all three of them.
Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Wolves vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 29/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 17/10
I think this could be a game that explodes with goals.
Two teams in the bottom four go head-to-head with both viewing this as extremely winnable, while winless Wolves are desperate to get off the mark.
OVER 2.5 GOALS is generously priced at 10/11 and should be snapped up.
This game involves Wolves. That is all the reasoning you really need for why this is a solid bet, but for more context, Gary O'Neil's men are the Premier League's entertainers.
So far this season their matches have averaged 4.1 goals, with seven of nine going over the 2.5 line. They are a gung-ho side with good attacking players but plenty of vulnerabilities.
Palace are the opposite end of the scale, their games averaging 1.9 goals, but context is required.
Across their last three games they have played sides who rank in the top five for expected goals against (xGA), so a hat-trick of unders can be forgiven, while prior to that they lost 2-1 at Everton, played out a 0-0 with Manchester United in a game that hit 4.0 xG, and drew 2-2 with another struggling team in Leicester.
In total their matches have averaged 2.56 xG per 90.
They'll also be able to play with more freedom in this game having got their first win last weekend and backed it up with a 2-1 victory at Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 10/11 | Draw 3/1 | Away 12/5
These two had contrasting midweeks in the Carabao Cup; Spurs knocking out the favourites and Villa losing at home to Crystal Palace.
Now they face off in what feels like a big game with five points between the pair. It's a great opportunity for Spurs to close the gap on fourth, and for Villa to put distance between themselves and a challenger.
The betting angle here? That's right, we are going back to TOTTENHAM CORNERS, with 7+ priced at 10/11 which again looks large.
For the fifth week in a row I'm banging this drum, because Spurs' style goes hand in hand with winning corners. Only Manchester City have won more corners than Ange Postecoglou's side, with their average a massive 9.3 per game.
The line here looks low given that figure, with Spurs covering 7+ corners in eight of nine league games and all four home league games.
In fact, their home matches have brought an average of 10.3 corners per game, so it would be daft not to climb the ladder again – after all that did work for us last weekend landing the 7+ and 8+ shouts.
TOTTENHAM 9+ CORNERS looks worth a go at 13/5, with Spurs having hit nine or more in three of four home league games this season.
Villa may have conceded only 5.5 corners per away game this season but are yet to face a side as fluid and who play with as much directness and width as Spurs. That didn't stop them conceding 10 corners at Ipswich, mind.
As mentioned in previous editions of this column, this bet is more down to Tottenham's approach and stats than their opponents, and besides, you know Unai Emery is going to set up to frustrate and counter, which should mean a low-ish block and thus Spurs corners (hopefully).
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (31/10/24)
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