Football betting tips: 24/25 outright
Premier League
8pts Arsenal to win the Premier League at 15/8 (General)
6pts Newcastle to finish in the top four at 9/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts e.w. Alexander Isak top scorer at 18/1 (Betway 1/4 1,2,3,4)
2pts e.w. Bruno Fernandes most assists at 14/1 (bet365, William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Championship
6pts Leeds to win the Championship at 7/2 (General)
4pts Cardiff to be relegated at 9/2 (BetVictor)
Multiples and BABs
1pt Arsenal, Leeds and Birmingham all to win their leagues at 38/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Arsenal to finish top four, Leeds, Huddersfield and Rotherham to finish in top 6, Birmingham to finish in top 2 & Doncaster, MK Dons and Port Vale to finish in top 7 at 125/1 (Sky Bet)
Yes, we know the Euros only finished a few weeks ago, but believe it or not the new club football season starts next week.
We've only just got over the heartbreaking defeat for England in the final, and now we again board the rollercoaster ahead of another turbulent club season - both following your team and on the betting front.
Last season was a good one for me, especially with the outright bets, which returned +40.6pts profit. It's also worth highlighting just how much profit the entire Sporting Life football team has generated from outrights in the last two seasons... It's pretty ridiculous.
We are doing things slightly differently with the outrights this season, as rather than us providing an article or two for each specific league, all of me, Jimmy and Tom have been given license to tip what we want from whichever league we want in our own columns.
I've chosen to focus on the Premier League and Championship, as those are the two leagues I feel I have the best grasp on at this stage, and hopefully the staking plan provides a bit of something for everyone, with some shorter, middling and longshot prices posted.
If you like or don't like any of my selections, want to share yours or just have a footy chat, you can find me on X under @JAKEOZZ.
Here's hoping for more outright success!
Go in again on Gunners
We'll start in the top division, where I'm happy to wade in again on ARSENAL TO WIN THE LEAGUE.
Last season they fell one point short when tipped at 5/1 on these pages, landing us each-way money, but I feel more confident this time around, for a number of reasons, and am keen to go back in again at a shorter price win-only.
They showcased an incredibly high level of resilience to push Manchester City all the way last term, something they failed to do the season before, staying on strongly by winning 13 of their last 15 league games.
Excellent performances were maintained right until the final whistle of the season, which was the issue in 22/23 where they 'bottled' the league.
Their levels over the last two campaigns have been incredible. They have only won two fewer and lost three more games than City over that span, highlighting just how close they have been.
The gap undoubtedly closed last campaign, as Arsenal's underlying process was identical to City's, and with question marks around Liverpool post-Jurgen Klopp, Chelsea and Manchester United's continuing issues and Tottenham having to deal with European football, for me this title race is a straight shoot-out between the best two sides in the country.
I've not even mentioned the looming 115 charges Manchester City face either. The hearing is in November, and given the case doesn't have a precedent, if found guilty, it is unclear what the punishment could be. It could be as serious as a huge point deduction or the club even being kicked out of the Premier League.
This could be serious for City, so much so that the bookies have priced Pep Guardiola's side as the 11th favourites to be relegated this season at 16/1 - taking no chances.
So, with all the off-field question marks around City, the other challengers looking weak and Arsenal performing at City's level last season, this could well be the year that the Gunners get their hands on the trophy for the first time since 2004.
And I do want to stress - even if City don't get any kind of punishment, I still think Arsenal can do with Liverpool did in 20/21 and break the City cycle.
Magpies to swoop
I promise, I'm not just regurgitating the tips from last season's Premier League outright, but I simply can't leave NEWCASTLE TO FINISH TOP 4 unbacked at 9/4.
Last season Eddie Howe's men were the victim of some rotten luck with injuries, combined with an increased number of games, and it did halt their progress. But they still managed to finish seventh while posting the fourth best underlying numbers in the league.
They averaged 2.22 xGF and 1.64 xGA per game, racking up 1.72 expected points (xP) per game, so while they do have to tighten up a tad at the back and improve results away from home, the process is in place for them to be a real problem for the 'establishment' once again.
Newcastle do appear hamstrung by FFP in terms of spending big money on players, but the squad they have at their disposal is more than good enough to repeat their success in 22/23, especially as they have no European football to contend with this season.
Overall, Howe's side have been the fourth best team across the last two seasons on every single underlying metric, so a continuation of those levels will have them right in the mix, and with all of their direct rivals having to deal with Europe, the Magpies should have an edge just like two years ago.
Avoid Prem relegation market
The bottom of the table was a joke last season. Sheffield United and Burnley went down with a whimper, while Luton - for all their proactiveness and spirit - were only able to hang around until the end of the season due to points deductions for Everton and Nottingham Forest.
Let's hope it's more competitive this time, but the three promoted sides - Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton - are the three favourites for the drop, followed by Everton.
I'm scratching my head as to why the Toffees, with no more pending charges (I think), are fourth favourites given the way the played last season, and the same with Forest as fifth favourites. Both sides put up mid-table underlying numbers and should steer clear of the drop again - even if the pair are hit with any more points deductions.
It does seem highly likely that we see the three promoted sides go straight back down for the second season running, so I won't be advising any selections. I was close to pulling the trigger on Wolves at 4/1 though, for data reasons (of course).
Concern for Wolves?
According to the underlying data, Wolves were the fourth worst team in the Premier League last season, bettering only the three sides that dropped. They finished 13th and well clear of trouble, mainly thanks to an unsustainably good goalkeeping season from Jose Sa.
His post shot xG over-performance of +8.9 led the league, and tells us that he singlehandedly saved nine more goals than the average keeper should have based on the on-target attempts he faced.
He did similar in 21/22 (+7.3), but in the 22/23 campaign he underperformed by nearly six (-5.6). A similar regression would see a near 15-goal swing in Wolves' goals conceded numbers, and could have them bang in trouble.
It is also worth noting that the Old Gold have been struggling for a few seasons now too. Of the 17 teams to play in both 22/23 and 23/24, Wolves rank dead last on all major metrics (xGF, xGA, xGD, xP).
Gary O'Neil's CV does read two jobs, two survivals, but the underlying process from his time at Bournemouth and Wolves screams relegation. At the Cherries he posted an xGD per game of -0.58 and accumulated 0.97 xP per game, while last season's xGD per game at Wolves was worst (-0.67) though they did collect marginally more xP (1.04).
But, the fact of the matter is that, with the ever widening gap between the Championship and the Premier League, it's likely we see two or maybe even all three promoted sides relegated again, meaning it's simply not worth taking a punt on an established top flight side falling through the trap door - and that's before we factor in any possible in-season managerial changes that so often rejuvenate teams.
Alexander the Great
I don't usually get involved in top scorer betting but I simply have to put up ALEXANDER ISAK TOP SCORER at 18/1.
The Swede was red-hot last season, finishing behind only Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer having netted 21 goals in a tired Newcastle team that was decimated by injuries and the task of managing midweek football.
That won't be the case this season, with the Magpies taking no part in Europe, and compared to some of his rivals in the betting, Isak's process suggests that his scoring rate is highly likely to be repeatable.
Only Haaland posted a better xG per 90 than Isak's 0.81. Both Mohamed Salah and a hit-and-miss Darwin Nunez are shorter in the betting this season than Isak, as is Ollie Watkins, whose process was nowhere near Isak's and who has to contend with Champions League football along with domestic matches.
We are, of course, taking on Haaland here, who has won the last two Golden Boots at a canter and is more than capable of scoring 40-plus in this City team, but I feel it's worth a punt given the data Isak has put up.
If you are worried about the cyborg that plays in Sky Blue, there could be some 'without Haaland' markets that will become available closer to the start of the season, though I'm not sure which bookies will be going with that.
Back Bruno
I was just scanning through the TOP ASSISTERS across the last five Premier League campaigns, and BRUNO FERNANDES' name doesn't appear all that often, but I'm going to back him this season nonetheless.
He hasn't gone close to winning the gong in four of his five seasons at Manchester United, but that's nothing to do with his performances. The Portuguese star has created plenty of chances for his teammates since arriving in England, but has been let down by their finishing.
We are taking a chance that this changes in the upcoming campaign, as given his track record, Bruno will be among the league leaders in expected assists (xA).
Across the last four seasons Fernandes has ranked 1st, 5th, 1st and 2nd for xA across a campaign, yet has finished =2nd, =19th, =8th and =17th in the assist standings.
Trust the process. If Bruno continues in the same manner this season, we should expect him to rack up a host of chances for his Manchester United teammates, who surely can't underperform in front of goal for a fourth straight season, right?
Over the past five seasons, 13 assists has been enough to win the 'most assists' in four of them, while 11 assists has been enough to finish in the top four in all five campaigns. Fernandes at a generous 14/1 rounds off my Premier League selections.
White-hot charge
Down a division now, and starting at the top, I simply can't look past favourites LEEDS TO WIN THE TITLE, even if they are a 7/2 shot.
That price, while perhaps skinny to some, is value in my eyes, with Daniel Farke's side simply a class above every other team in this season's Championship.
They were denied promotion last season in the play-off final, and were involved in one of the most thrilling four-way promotion battles the second tier has ever seen. Those other three have been promoted, and the three sides that have come down aren't of the same calibre.
That leaves the door wide open for a dominant Leeds side to romp home. And lets be clear about this, despite finishing third, Farke's men were the best team in the Championship last season according to the majority of key underlying metrics.
They accumulated the most xP per game (2.02), put up the best xGA per game (0.84) and ranked marginally second behind Leicester on xGF per game (1.78) and xGD per game (0.93). A continuation of those levels would see them win the league by 15 points in my mind.
Their team has improved, with Jayden Bogle and Joe Rothwell coming in, and the return of Brenden Aaronson will add yet more quality in the final third. For now the Whites have kept hold off Crysencio Summerville, Wilfried Gnonto and Georginio Rutter, but even if one or two depart, expect Leeds to splash out on replacements now they're under new ownership.
The Whites will take some beating, and while it may be boring to just back the favourite, it is worth noting that the Championship title favourite has won the league in four of the last five campaigns - including Leeds in 2019/20.
Concern for Cardiff
At the other end of the table, the price about CARDIFF TO BE RELEGATED looks huge at 9/2.
Of the newly promoted sides, only Oxford are in the top five in the betting, the bookies quite clearly expecting Derby and Portsmouth to survive, meaning it's a wide open heat with seven sides priced between 3/1 and 11/2.
Wayne Rooney's Plymouth are second favourites, but it's Cardiff who appeal, despite finishing 12th last season.
They were incredibly fortunate to finish so high, ranking as the second worst team in the Championship last season according to xG data. Only Rotherham had both a worse underlying process than Cardiff (-0.55 xGD per game) and accumulated fewer xP per game than the Bluebirds (1.00).
More of the same this season would absolutely lead to serious regression for a side who lost the non-penalty xG battle in 31 of their 46 matches.
Transfer activity has so far been minimal for Erol Bulut's side, meaning the chances of a repeat process are high.
Multiples and BABs...
The winning way
This section is the fun one, the one with the bigger prices!
We'll start off with a league winner treble, backing ARSENAL, LEEDS AND BIRMINGHAM TO WIN THEIR LEAGUES.
The cases for Arsenal and Leeds have been made above, but by adding Birmingham we get a 38/1 treble. The Blues, relegated from the Championship last season, have splashed the cash on some impressive players at League One level, their American owners backing new manager Chris Davies to guide them back to the second tier at the first time of asking.
They were unfortunate to go down according to underlying data last season, and enter a weak-looking league third tier. They can prove to be the class of League One and run away with things, as their short price suggests.
Backing favourites isn't for everyone, but putting them together provides appeal and it should give us a run for our money.
A big BAB
The final selection of this preview is a daft BAB at 125/1. Sky Bet throw out a load of Cross-Competition BABs, and this one caught my eye.
ARSENAL TO FINISH TOP 4, LEEDS, HUDDERSFIELD AND ROTHERHAM TO FINISH TOP 6, BIRMINGHAM TO FINISH TOP 2 & DONCASTER, MK DONS AND PORT VALE TO FINISH TOP 7.
I nodded along to every part of the BAB thinking; 'that's likely to happen, that's likely to happen, that's likely to happen...'
Let's go through the BAB. Arsenal, Leeds and Birmingham have been covered. Huddersfield and Rotherham, both relegated from the Championship last season, have new and proven managers in charge - Michael Duff and Steve Evans - and both look strong heading into the season meaning top six looks within reach.
In League Two, MK Dons are strongly fancied to go better than last season (beaten play-off semi-finalists) under Mike Williamson, while Doncaster have kept hold of manager Grant McCann and so should be able to follow up their storming finish to the campaign.
Finally, Port Vale have brought in some real quality for League Two level, and that, coupled with a good manager in Darren Moore, should see them being relevant in the fourth tier.
It's obviously a highly speculative punt, but it does give us something to cheer on at a big price.
Odds correct at 1900 BST (30/07/24)
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