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Jake Osgathorpe's Euro 2024 tips and Super 6 predictions for the Round of 16
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
Tuesday
2.5pts Austria to commit 14+ fouls vs Turkey (20:00) at 10/11 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
- *All bets are in 90 minutes
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Austria vs Turkey
- Tuesday 2nd July, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 17/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 3/1
This could be a really scrappy game. Both sides will be happy to get stuck in, especially with what's at stake. Austria have been the foul kings at Euro 2024, committing more than any other team (49).
The bookies have finally cottoned on after the Group Stage, with the lines higher, but I still rate AUSTRIA TO COMMIT 14+ FOULS a bet at 10/11 here.
Not only has this selection landed in all three Euro group games, but it's landed in each of Austria's last seven outings - which includes friendlies. This is just the way they play under Ralf Rangnick, and the fact that five substitutes can be used at the tournament only helps this bet.
It means that those walking a tightrope can be taken off and replaced with more players who will play aggressively and commit more fouls. Given the stakes in the game and the type of players Turkey have, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see tempers flare and plenty of fouls be committed.
Score prediction: Austria 3-1 Turkey (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1700 (28/06/24)
Already advised
2.5pts Khvicha Kvaratskhelia To Win 2+ Fouls in Spain vs Georgia (20:00) at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Spain to commit 12+ fouls vs Georgia (20:00) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Dan Ndoye to commit 2+ fouls in Switzerland vs Italy (17:00) at 5/4 (bet365)
1pt Andreas Christensen 1+ total shot in Germany vs Denmark (20:00) at 7/4 (William Hill)
0.25pt Andreas Christensen to score anytime in Germany vs Denmark (20:00) at 30/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts England to keep a clean sheet and Under 3.5 Goals vs Slovakia (17:00) at 10/11 (BoyleSports)
1.5pts Kevin De Bruyne 1+ shot on target in France vs Belgium (17:00) at 11/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Andraz Sporar To Win 2+ fouls in Portugal vs Slovenia (20:00) at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Romania 4+ shots on target vs Netherlands (17:00) at 17/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Well, the Group Stage certainly delivered drama, shocks and most importantly, profit.
We bounced back well from a -4pt loss in the opening round with +3.3pts and +11.7pts profit in rounds two and three, meaning this column is in a good place heading into the knockouts.
I mentioned the shocks, the likes of Croatia going home, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Georgia all exceeding expectations, and while they made the groups enthralling, the Round of 16 does look kind of, 'meh'.
We have four teams trading at 1/5 or shorter to advance to the quarters, and three more no bigger than 4/9, so on paper at least we have some very one-sided looking ties. That's not to say we shouldn't expect any shocks once again, it just means, from a punting perspective, I won't be getting involved in any 'to qualify' bets in this piece.
Switzerland vs Italy
- Saturday 29th June, 17:00 - BBC One
- Home 23/10 | Draw 19/10 | Away 11/8
Readers will be well aware (I hope so anyway) that we are on Switzerland to win the whole tournament at a big price, and I'd say they've given us hope - which is all you can ask from an 80/1 shot - that they can do it. Performances have been excellent, much better than those reigning champions Italy have mustered.
I do fancy a Swiss upset, but a player foul angle - yes I'm talking fouls again - appeals more. Switzerland's attacking midfielder DAN NDOYE is priced at 5/4 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS, and that certainly looks worth backing.
Ndoye leads the Swiss for fouls per 90, averaging 2.7, with this bet landing in all three group games. Operating as one of two number 10s, he is a key pressing figure, and has so far been overzealous in Germany.
Up against players like Jorginho and Nicolo Barella in this match, two players who happily fall over at the slightest contact, Ndoye can again rack up the fouls as his side continue to play an aggressive style.
Score prediction: Switzerland 1-0 Italy (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Germany vs Denmark
- Saturday 29th June, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 4/7 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/4
Despite looking good so far, I could definitely see an upset in this game. It wouldn't surprise me. That's because Denmark have a similar formation, set-up and make-up to that of the Swiss team who were a minute away from beating Germany.
One particular angle of attack I like the look of for this game though is Denmark's set-piece threat. They have looked pretty toothless from open play, but extremely dangerous from dead-balls.
Through their three group games they racked up an xGF total of 3.15 with 1.56 of that coming via set-pieces - a whopping 49.5%. My colleague Tom Carnduff highlighted ANDREAS CHRISTENSEN as a man to get onside in his article, and it is worth going back in on the Barcelona man.
We'll back him to have just 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 7/4, and have a smaller play on him TO SCORE ANYTIME at a massive 30/1. Christensen has taken a shot in all three group appearances - including a speculative hit from range - and is averaging 0.15 xG per 90, which ranks him fourth among the Danes.
For more confidence, how about this. When Germany faced a set-piece-reliant Hungary side in the group stage, they gave up 0.54 xGA from such scenarios. Dead-balls really could be an avenue for success for the underdogs.
- CLICK HERE to back Andreas Christensen 1+ total shot with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Andreas Christensen to score anytime with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Germany 1-1 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 2230 (27/06/24)
England vs Slovakia
- Sunday 30th June, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 4/11 | Draw 10/3 | Away 15/2
England have found themselves with another favourable draw in a major tournament after winning their group. Performances weren't good, but they got the job done and look to have been rewarded for it. They now need to take advantage.
Slovakia will be another tough test though. They'll play in a very similar manner to Slovenia, looking to sit deep and frustrate, and that could again make for painstaking viewing for England fans and neutrals alike.
The best angle I can find is trusting England's solid defensive foundations. ENGLAND TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET is 4/6 generally, but we can boost the price to 10/11 by adding UNDER 3.5 GOALS in the match.
Gareth Southgate's side have been suffocating opponents so far. They've conceded just 26 shots, nine on target, one big chance and only six corners in three matches. And on top of that, the chances they have conceded equate to an xG of just 1.15 - a stingy 0.38 per game.
I see no reason why we will see anything different here, especially with the game state likely seeing Slovakia sit deep and England dominate the ball. And, let's be honest, England's attack hasn't given any indication it will fire four past anyone, has it?
Score prediction: England 1-0 Slovakia (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 2230 (27/06/24)
Spain vs Georgia
- Sunday 30th June, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 1/5 | Draw 21/4 | Away 12/1
What a great story Georgia have been at Euro 2024. Qualifying for the knockouts is an almighty achievement, but the reward is to face the side who blasted them twice in qualifying (7-1 and 3-1) and who have looked like the best in the tournament.
La Furia Roja comfortably topped the so-called 'group of death', but the eye-catching stat surrounding Spain has been their foul count. They've committed 14, 17 and 15 fouls in their group games, the latter in a match against Albania where they dominated the ball (60% possession) and had already cemented top spot.
SPAIN TO COMMIT 12+ FOULS once again appeals at 5/4, then, especially as Georgia have drawn 10, 17 and 11 in their three matches, and in the most recent head-to-head where the stakes were nowhere near as high, Spain fouled Georgia nine times. Luis de la Fuente's side have a different approach to recent years, more fast, furious and direct, meaning less control, more turnovers, and thus more opportunities to commit fouls.
My favourite bet of this match though is KHVICHA KVARATSKHELIA TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 4/5. So far at Euro 2024 this bet has landed in all three of his outings, KK drawing 10 fouls in total.
The tricky winger has been his nation's main outlet and it's the same when he plays at club level, drawing 2.62 fouls per 90 in Serie A this season. Interestingly, despite the two meetings with Spain in qualifying being one-sided, this bet landed in both.
- CLICK HERE to back Spain to commit 12+ fouls with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Khvicha Kvaratskhelia To Win 2+ Fouls with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Georgia (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
France vs Belgium
- Monday 1st July, 17:00 - ITV1
- Home 10/11 | Draw 11/5 | Away 10/3
Who saw this coming? After both France and Belgium could only finish second in their groups, the pair meet in the Round of 16, meaning we will definitely lose one of the eight pre-tournament favourites at this stage.
While I think France probably just have enough to get past their neighbours, the value in this game comes from siding with KEVIN DE BRUYNE 1+ SHOT ON TARGET.
The Manchester City man plays almost as a second striker for Belgium and is given license to shoot on sight. He has so far pulled the trigger 10 times at Euro 2024, hitting the target at least once in all three group games.
France have conceded just 24 shots in three games, but nearly half of those attempts (10) forced Mike Maignan into action.
Score prediction: France 1-0 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1520 (28/06/24)
Portugal vs Slovenia
- Monday 1st July, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 4/11 | Draw 7/2 | Away 15/2
Three draws were enough for Slovenia to make it this far, though you'd expect this is where their journey ends. It seems highly likely that they will adopt the same approach in this game as they did against England, meaning wave after wave of Portugal pressure.
One thing that caught my eye in Slovenia's draw with England was ANDRAZ SPORAR's ability to WIN FOULS. He is an excellent outlet for his nation and has found a knack of drawing fouls to take pressure off his defence and get them up the pitch.
His hassling and harrying led to him winning three fouls against the Three Lions despite Slovenia seeing just 27% of the ball, meaning it wouldn't be a surprise to see him manage a similar number here in a game that will probably be played in the same pattern.
He's 15/8 TO WIN 2+ FOULS with Betfair and Paddy Power, with the same bet as short as evens elsewhere, and it's already landed twice in three outings at Euro 2024. Oh, these two played in a recent friendly - won by Slovenia - and Sporar was fouled three times in that match.
Score prediction: Portugal 2-0 Slovenia (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1520 (28/06/24)
Romania vs Netherlands
- Tuesday 2nd July, 17:00 - BBC One
- Home 13/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/9
This could be more competitive than people expect. Romania have been good fun at this tournament, while the Netherlands have absolutely underwhelmed, but look to have lucked-out with their potential route to the final.
The Dutch are still expected to win this one, but I like the look of ROMANIA 4+ SHOTS ON TARGET which is a huge price at 17/10. They have taken 32 shots at Euro 2024, hitting the target with 15 of those.
This bet would have landed in all three group games, where they fired five in each on their way to topping Group E. It does seem Romania have a knack for testing the opposition goalkeeper, covering the 4+ line in nine of their last 12 internationals.
The Netherlands have conceded a surprising number of shots (36) and shots on target (15) at Euro 2024 so far. Poland tested Bart Verbruggen seven times and Austria five, with only France failed to register four or more shots on target against them.
Score prediction: Romania 1-2 Netherlands (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1640 (28/06/24)
Euro 2024 Super 6 predictions for round 4
- England 1-0 Slovakia
- Spain 2-0 Georgia
- France 1-0 Belgium
- Portugal 2-0 Slovenia
- Romania 1-2 Netherlands
- Austria 3-1 Turkey
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