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Jake Osgathorpe's Euro 2024 tips and Super 6 predictions for matchday two

By Jake Osgathorpe
09:25 · MON June 24, 2024

Football betting tips: Euro 2024

Saturday

1pt Tomas Soucek to score anytime in Georgia vs Czechia (14:00) at 5/1 (Unibet)

2pts Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime in Turkey vs Portugal (17:00) at 19/20 (Unibet)

2pts Romelu Lukaku to score anytime in Belgium vs Romania (20:00) at evens (bet365)

Sky Bet Euros offer B10G40 - https://m.skybet.com/lp/acq-bet-10-get-40-football-2024?sba_promo=ACQB10G8X5FB&aff=688&dcmp=SL_ED_FOOTBALL_B10G40

Belgium vs Romania

Lukaku shot map

I know he was up to his usual tricks, missing chances against Slovakia, but ROMELU LUKAKU is a bet TO SCORE ANYTIME here at even money. As my pal Jimmy the Punt would say - "he's due one".

It's hard to argue, as it's been a miserable time for Lukaku in recent major tournaments. He squandered 1.73 xG worth of chances in just 45 minutes when his side needed a goal to qualify from their 2022 World Cup group, and against Slovakia he missed 0.61 xG worth of chances and had two goals ruled out.

He's banging on the door, hard, and with Belgium close to must-win territory in this game, we should expect the man who scored 14 in eight qualifiers to get yet more chances in this match - *now everyone manifest with me* - and he will put one away.

Score prediction: Belgium 3-1 Romania (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Georgia vs Czechia

Soucek Czechia p90

Generally, when two sides who lose the opening game meet in round two, it's generally just pure chaos, with goals applenty. Defeat for either likely spells the end of their tournament.

It was chaos in Georgia's defeat to Turkey, where they conceded 3.01 xG, and their vulnerable defence will be put to the test again by a shrewd Czechia side who nearly nicked a point against Portugal.

I'm going to back TOMAS SOUCEK TO SCORE ANYTIME here, with his 5/1 price just too big. This is a player who has averaged 0.33 goals per 90 across Euro qualifying and that round one defeat, with his xG per 90 of 0.33 highlighting that is no fluke - he does get on the end of chances regularly.

The West Ham man is given license to get forward and be involved in the attacks, while he is a huge threat from set-pieces, so looks a cracking price to bag for us on Saturday.

Score prediction: Georgia 1-3 Czechia (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Turkey vs Portugal

Sorry for these final two tips being very, what you would call, obvious, but I think there is juice in the price of the two number nines for the favourites in this game and the one after.

CRISTIANO RONALDO did what most of us thought he would do in this Portugal team during their win over Czechia, not a lot. That is, other than be the man on the end of chances.

He touched the ball just 32 times in 90+ minutes, but five of those were shots that equated to 0.73 xG, including one big chance.

In my mind Turkey aren't as good at the back as Czechia, so we can expect Portugal to look more dangerous and create more clear-cut chances, with international football's record scorer likely to be on the end of plenty of opportunities.

Score prediction: Turkey 1-3 Portugal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Euro 2024 Super 6 predictions for round 2

  • Denmark 1-2 England
  • Spain 2-1 Italy
  • Slovakia 2-1 Ukraine
  • Poland 0-1 Austria
  • Netherlands 1-1 France
  • Georgia 1-3 Czechia

Already advised:

1pt Croatia -1 handicap vs Albania (14:00) at 7/5 (Unibet)

1.5pts Hungary to score vs Germany (17:00) at 10/11 (General)

2.5pts Benjamin Sesko to win 1+ fouls in Slovenia vs Serbia (14:00) at 8/11 (Betfair)

0.5pt Benjamin Sesko to win 2+ fouls in Slovenia vs Serbia (14:00) at 7/2 (Betfair)

1.5pts Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg 1+ total shot in Denmark vs England (17:00) at 11/10 (bet365)

1.5pts Spain 12+ fouls committed vs Italy (20:00) at 11/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

2pts Austria to commit 13+ fouls vs Poland (17:00) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Austria to commit 15+ fouls vs Poland (17:00) at 3/1 (Betfair)

Round one wasn't the best for this column. I think some may have called it 'shit'. Hard to argue. Certainly, a 4pt loss wasn't the way I wanted to start things off.

Anyway, there's a long way to go and plenty of matches to look at, so hopefully we can put to good use what we learned from matchday one to bag some profit in the second round of matches.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, matchday two has historically delivered more draws (32%) than matchdays one (27%) and three (12%).

Teams who entered the group stage as second or third favourites to advance and won their opener look to consolidate and confirm their place in the knockouts with a point, while teams who lost their opener know a second successive defeat will likely see them eliminated, and a point takes it to the final game.

Something to bear in mind if you are thinking of playing teams to win. And as always, my Super 6 predictions are at the foot of the article.

Croatia vs Albania

Spain 3-0 Croatia

There were plenty of positives for Croatia from their group opener, even if they did lose 3-0. Spain are a good team, and Croatia caused them problems, even in the first half when most of the damage was done - a good sign ahead of a must-win game against the Group C underdog.

They must tighten up defensively in general, but maybe not for this one. That's because Albania are extremely limited in attack. They ranked dead last of all 24 teams to qualify for the tournament in terms of xGF per game (0.88), and backed that up with a 0.50 xG display in defeat to Italy.

A Croatia clean sheet seems likely then, and given they may well need a wide-margin win if they are to have a chance of finishing second, backing CROATIA -1 HANDICAP appeals. The potential importance of finishing second compared to third could be with the difference between facing Switzerland or Portugal in the next round.

Score prediction: Croatia 2-0 Albania (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1700 BST (18/06/24)

Germany vs Hungary

Yes, Germany were impressive in their opening 5-1 win, but they were playing Scotland. I was very vocal pre-tournament about how bad I think Scotland are - you can find that here - so I'm not going to get carried away with Germany's performance, and Hungary will be a much stiffer test.

HUNGARY TO SCORE 1+ GOAL is 10/11 and that looks a bet worth taking. They showed flashes in defeat to Switzerland, and that result means they really could do with a result here if they are to qualify.

Lucky for them, Germany have conceded in seven of Julian Nagelsmann's nine games in charge, and Hungary haven't been shut out since last June (11 matches). Plus, they have an absolute tank in Martin Adam to bring on to mix things up, who went viral after his introduction against Switzerland - see the above tweet.

I'm happy to take the slightly shorter price on Hungary to score (10/11) as opposed to both teams to score (11/10) in case they do get an unlikely 1-0 win - just as they did in the Nations League the last time these sides met.

Score prediction: Germany 3-1 Hungary (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1700 BST (18/06/24)

Scotland vs Switzerland

I was going to say 'Don't overcomplicate it. Switzerland to win is the bet here', but Joe Townsend made a very good case for the draw in his match preview, with a point suiting both.

We have to expect a reaction from Steve Clarke's men, they have to batten down the hatches, right? Either way, I'm happy to swerve this game from a betting perspective.

Score prediction: Scotland 0-2 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1700 BST (18/06/24)

Slovenia vs Serbia

Sesko stats

This is an interestingly set up match, with Slovenia having collected a point against Denmark and Serbia losing to England. A draw doesn't really suit either, so we should see an open contest.

There looks to be incredible value in backing BENJAMIN SESKO TO WIN FOULS though, and we're going to take both 1+ at 8/11 and 2+ at 7/2. The lanky forward is a real handful, with his hold-up play, dribbling ability and running in behind all difficult for opposing defenders to deal with.

He was fouled four times in Slovenia's opener, while Serbia fouled England striker Harry Kane a whopping six times. Their defenders were very aggressive and physical, and there's no reason to anything but the same again here.

Score prediction: Slovenia 1-1 Serbia (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1700 BST (18/06/24)

Denmark vs England

hojbjerg shot map

I'm not going to abandon PIERRE-EMILE HOJBJERG. He once again got forward for Denmark, with his more defensive-minded midfield partner Morten Hjumland allowing him to get into advanced positions.

He registered a shot from about seven yards out in Denmark's 1-1 draw with Slovenia, and he's 11/10 to fire just 1+ TOTAL SHOT in this game. Granted, England looked very solid defensively in the 1-0 win over Serbia, but Denmark have a bit more about them.

If things go the same way as they did in that game, then the Three Lions will happily sit in and absorb pressure, increasing the chances of a shot from range from Hojbjerg, who has taken 1+ shot in eight of his last 11 international appearances, and in five of his last seven competitive internationals.

His 13/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power) price to score anytime appealed once again - the Spurs man has scored five his last 11 - but the price on just one shot is too good to turn down so we'll keep things simple.

Score prediction: Denmark 1-2 England (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1700 BST (18/06/24)

Spain vs Italy

spain carvajal

When Spain have played a half-decent team under Luis de la Fuente, they've commited a ton of fouls. They really do live up to their nickname - La Furia Roja - playing furious, in-your-face football.

Their foul lines for this game look very low, and definitely warrant an interest. We can back SPAIN 12+ FOULS at 11/10, and that'll do me. They have played seven decent-to-good teams across their last 15 internationals, and covered this line in all of them.

They fouled Croatia 14 times in their opening group game, and in recent friendlies against Brazil (20) and Colombia (15), they didn't mess around. In the Nations League semi-final they fouled Thursday's opponents Italy a whopping 24 times in 90 minutes, before committing 15 against Croatia in the final.

Expect similar here, and I wouldn't put anyone off taking higher lines, with 15+ available at 4/1.

Score prediction: Spain 2-1 Italy (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 1700 BST (18/06/24)

Slovakia vs Ukraine

Slovakia were ok against Belgium, but were ultimately fortunate to get the win, the Red Devils squandering plenty of chances. On the other hand, Ukraine didn't deserve to lose so heavily to Romania, but really did put in an underwhelming performance.

They have to win here, you'd think, if they are to have any chance of progressing, while a draw likely suits Slovakia - an interesting game state. For that reason, Ukraine 15+ total shots did appeal at 13/10 (Betfair), but I'm not sure if I can trust them after that opening showing.

Score prediction: Slovakia 2-1 Ukraine (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Poland vs Austria

Austria manager Ralf Rangnick
Austria manager Ralf Rangnick

AUSTRIA, meet FOULS COMMITTED. Fouls committed, meet Austria.

That was the introduction Ralf Rangnick made after his appointment, with his side's front-foot, in-your-face, high-pressing style seeing them rack up the foul numbers.

We can back them to COMMIT 13+ FOULS in this crucial clash with Poland at a huge 5/4, and we'll also back 15+ at 3/1. The former has won in all of Austria's last five games, which included four friendlies, and in seven of their last nine.

The latter has copped in five of their last nine, so these look generous prices. Poland were fouled 14 times by the Netherlands in their opener, and given the state of play with both sides coming off defeats and facing strong opponents next, this will be a full-throttle match with a draw not good enough for either, so it could get scrappy. Austria are 11/1 to repeat what they did on matchday one and rack up 18+ fouls, which is worth a look.

Score prediction: Poland 0-1 Austria (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Netherlands vs France

Will Kylian Mbappe play? And if he doesn't, just how will France fare here? First off, let's just go through why this could be such a crucial game. The winner of the match will likely top the group, and therefore go into the bottom half of the draw.

That should leave a more straightforward run to the semi-finals, whereas the runners-up will be probably end up on the same side of the draw as Germany, Spain and Portugal. It's a big match then, and a huge opportunity for the Netherlands to perhaps take advantage of France without Mbappe.

It's another no bet for me in a game that looks tricky to decipher.

Score prediction: Netherlands 1-1 France (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Euro 2024: More from Sporting Life

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