Jake Osgathorpe's Euro 2024 tips and Super 6 predictions for matchday three
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
2.5pts 50+ Booking Points in Czechia vs Turkey (20:00) at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Diogo Jota to score anytime in Georgia vs Portugal (20:00) at 9/5 (Betfair)
It's fair to say the tournament has so far been brilliant. Nearly all - I'm looking at you Serbia vs England - of the games have been entertaining, and we've witnessed some cracking goals.
The final round of matches sees group state dictate things, with the must-win element for usually one or both teams in a match-up causing chaos, which usually leads to goals and cards. In 2020, we saw 39 goals and 34 cards across the final 12 games, more of the same this time please lads.
Saturday was fun wasn't it... Cristiano Ronaldo decided to square the ball when one-on-one - I know, who saw that coming - and Romelu Lukaku again failed to score despite having five shots (0.65 xG) and yet another goal ruled out by VAR, we go again for matchday three. Still, we made +3.35pts profit in matchday two, so we can't grumble too much.
Czechia vs Turkey
- Wednesday 26th June, 20:00 - ITV4
- Home 29/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 17/10
What do you get when you've got a good refereeing appointment, two foul happy teams and qualification on the line? CARDS, and lots of them.
Czechia have to win to qualify, while Turkey need to avoid defeat to secure second spot. It's going to be scrappy, just like Czechia's last match which was another they couldn't afford to lose and saw nine yellow cards. Turkey's last game saw five as well, so immediately 50+ BOOKING POINTS makes great appeal at 5/6.
And when we factor in the referee appointment, that price looks massive. Istvan Kovacs is the man in the middle and he brandished six yellows in his only Euro 2024 game thus far (Slovenia vs Serbia), and this season he has averaged 6.2 cards per game.
This could get out of hand easily. Sky Bet's price and line is excellent, with Betfair 7/10 for Over 4.5 Cards and bet365 are evens for Over 5.5. I wouldn't put anyone off backing 60+ booking points at 11/8 or even 70+ at 5/2.
Score prediction: Czechia 2-1 Turkey (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Georgia vs Portugal
- Wednesday 26th June, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 13/2 | Draw 19/5 | Away 4/11
Portugal have secured top spot in Group F and are expected to rotate here, while Georgia have to win to stand any chance of advancing. That latter point should lead to the minnows being even more open than usual.
So far this tournament they have conceded 3.01 xG against Turkey and 3.07 xG against Czechia, only staying in the competition thanks to a stellar goalkeeping display from Giorgi Mamardashvili in the last game.
Portugal's second string should have a field day here. DIOGO JOTA should come into the starting line up for this game, and he looks a massive price at 9/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He has had limited playing time of late for his country but has scored twice in his last 162 minutes. Despite being injured for a large portion of the club season, Jota bagged 14 times in 28 appearances in all competitions, and did find the net twice in Euro qualifying, and five times in seven World Cup qualifiers. When called upon, he usually delivers.
Score prediction: Georgia 1-3 Portugal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Euro 2024 Super 6 predictions for round 3
- England 2-0 Slovenia
- Denmark 2-2 Serbia
- Ukraine 1-3 Belgium
- Slovakia 1-1 Romania
- Georgia 0-2 Portugal
- Czechia 2-1 Turkey
Already advised
1pt Barnabas Varga to score anytime in Scotland vs Hungary (20:00) at 9/4 (bet365)
1pt Scott McKenna to be carded in Scotland vs Hungary (20:00) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ferran Torres to score anytime in Albania vs Spain (20:00) at 21/10 (Betway)
2.5pts Croatia 12+ fouls committed vs Italy (20:00) at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Croatia 14+ fouls committed vs Italy (20:00) at 21/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2.5pts Austria 12+ fouls committed vs Netherlands (17:00) at 5/6 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Austria 14+ fouls committed vs Netherlands (17:00) at 11/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Aleksandar Mitrovic to win 2+ fouls in Denmark vs Serbia (20:00) at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2.5pts Adam Gnezda Cerin to commit 2+ fouls in England vs Slovenia (20:00) at evens (Unibet)
0.5pt No cards in Slovakia vs Romania (17:00) at 14/1 (Betfair)
2pts Mykhailo Mudryk 2+ total shots in Ukraine vs Belgium at 17/20 (William Hill)
Scotland vs Hungary
- Sunday 23rd June, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 17/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 29/20
This is quite literally must-win for both teams. A draw will see both eliminated, while a win for Scotland should see them advance on four points, though even a win for Hungary may not be enough for them to advance as a third-placed team. Both will give it a right go here, which should mean goals.
Over 2.5 goals is 8/11 and BTTS is 8/13, highlighting that fact, but with the net expected to bulge, taking an ANYTIME SCORER at a bigger price appeals. And the man we are backing is Hungary striker BARNABAS VARGA. The Ferencvaros man has bagged his nations only goal at the the tournament so far, and he has proved a constant threat to the opposition.
Varga has taken four shots (two on target) equating to 1.23 xG, which means he has been on the end of over half of Hungary's total xG in Germany (2.43). His shot map is excellent too, with all of his shots coming within seven yards of the net, meaning that when he gets a chance, it's of a high quality. Another boost for this bet is that he has played nearly every minute of Euro 2024 too, only missing the final three minutes of the defeat to Germany, so we should get a run for our money.
I also can't leave this game without tipping a player card. The referee here is Argentine Facundo Tello, and while he only dished three yellows in Turkey's win over Georgia, his historic averages are obscene. This season he has dished a whopping 5.8 cards per game across all competitions, so with the stakes through the roof for both teams, the cards could be like confetti on Sunday.
I'm going to back SCOTT MCKENNA TO BE CARDED, with Kieran Tierney's stand-in appealing most at the prices. Tierney is out, so McKenna should play left centre-back, and he was tested by Switzerland when introduced as a sub, committing two fouls and picking up a yellow. This game will see him match up against Roland Sallai, who has drawn five fouls in two games this tournament, so 4/1 for McKenna to double his tally looks huge.
I'm not too bothered about him potentially getting suspended with a second booking, this is literally last chance saloon, so every player will leave everything out there in a bid to qualify.
- CLICK HERE to back Barnabas Varga to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Scott McKenna to be carded with Sky Bet
Score prediction: Scotland 2-3 Hungary (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Switzerland vs Germany
- Sunday 23rd June, 20:00 - BBC Two
- Home 15/4 | Draw 14/5 | Away 4/6
Will Germany make any changes for this? That is the main question for me. They shouldn't really, with top spot not yet secure (a draw here will do it), and I hope they don't, because this will be the toughest test yet for the side who have arguably looked the best side at the Euros so far.
I'm happy to keep my powder dry here, though if the team news stays the same for the Germans, then the 3/4 best price available for them to win looks a tad big given the Swiss weren't overly impressive against Scotland.
Score prediction: Switzerland 1-2 Germany (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Albania vs Spain
- Monday 24th June, 20:00 - BBC Two
- Home 6/1 | Draw 7/2 | Away 2/5
Spain have already qualified as group winners here, so we shouldn't be surprised to see Luis de la Fuente making wholesale changes from the side that dominated matches against Croatia and Italy. That makes anything pro-Spanish hard to gauge as we aren't certain of team selection, but we'll swing anyway in the knowledge that the bet will be void if the chosen player doesn't start.
FERRAN TORRES could be the man to side with, with the Barcelona man potentially lining up as the striker or either side. He has always been a threat when playing for his country, netting in his last appearance. He also scored three in five Euro qualifying appearances, two in four at the World Cup and four in six during World Cup qualifying. Torres has actually been pretty prolific.
Albania have been a breath of fresh air at Euro 2024 and really have given two stronger nations good games, but the fact they must win here has to be seen as a negative. They could well overcommit, leaving space for La Furia Roja to potentially rack up a score.
Score prediction: Albania 0-4 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Croatia vs Italy
- Monday 24th June, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 2/1 | Draw 23/10 | Away 13/10
The qualify permutations are pretty straight forward for this one too. Croatia have to win or they are packing their bags. A draw sees Italy secure second spot, a defeat could see them eliminated depending on how Albania get on against Spain, and how they rank amongst third-placed teams.
It really is another game where the stakes couldn't be higher, which is why I'm shocked to see CROATIA's FOULS COMMITTED line set at 12+. They will be front foot, high-pressing from the off as they search for a lead, and even if they go behind, that approach will continue. It really is all or nothing for them.
I envisage this game being wide open, just like Croatia's draw with Albania which was effectively an elimination game, and the Croats made 15 fouls in that match, despite being behind for over an hour. And, although they were hammered by Spain in the opener, they racked up 13 fouls.
Italy were fouled 17 times by Spain last time out, highlighting that they have the players to draw in their opponents, and we know the Italians will be up to all sorts of tricks - the dark arts - as they hold onto a point or a lead, so I'm going to chance 14+ CROATIA FOULS at 21/10.
Score prediction: Croatia 1-1 Italy (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
France vs Poland
- Tuesday 25th June, 17:00 - BBC Two
- Home 2/7 | Draw 17/4 | Away 17/2
Poland are out. Their recent major tournaments have been miserable to say the least. France can wrap up top spot with a win here, and will be looking for a better display than last time out against the Netherlands.
Kylian Mbappe should return which will be a massive boost, and they should have too much for their opponents here, though nothing appeals from a betting standpoint.
Score prediction: France 2-0 Poland (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Netherlands vs Austria
- Tuesday 25th June, 17:00 - BBC One
- Home 23/20 | Draw 21/10 | Away 5/2
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. AUSTRIA landed us the bounty two fold in the last round by committing plenty of fouls against Poland, and the prices on offer again mean we have to wade in again. We can back 12+ FOULS COMMITTED at 5/6, which has be snapped up.
This is a bet that has landed in all of Austria's last seven matches, and nine of their last 10 - with five of those games being friendlies. Ralf Rangnick has his side playing in-your-face, combative football, and so far at Euro 2024 they've racked up foul counts of 18 and 15. The stakes remain high for this game too, with a defeat for Austria potentially not enough for them as a third-placed team.
A win would actually see Austria finish above the Netherlands and could even see them win the group should France fail to beat Poland, so motivation is there for Das Team, though they don't need any extra incentive to make fouls. Taking a higher line as well paid dividends last round, and looks worthwhile again here. AUSTRIA 14+ FOULS COMMITTED is 11/5 and also makes the staking plan.
Score prediction: Netherlands 1-2 Austria (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Denmark vs Serbia
- Tuesday 25th June, 20:00 - ITV4
- Home 6/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 21/10
A draw will likely be enough to see Denmark advance, potentially in second place, while nothing less than a win will do for Serbia. Expect this to be an end-to-end encounter and that should leave to plenty of fouls. The 15/8 for ALEKSANDAR MITROVIC TO WIN 2+ FOULS looks a huge price.
As we all know, Mitrovic is extremely physical in his style and draws his opposition defender into a tussle which usually results in fouls for and against him. Serbia's direct style also helps this, and has led to this bet landing in four of Mitrovic's last five international outings, the only time it didn't win was against England.
The outside centre-halves in Denmark's back three have been fouling machines at Euro 2024, with both Joachim Anderson and Jannik Vestergaard racking up three fouls each, so hopefully with the onus on Serbia to attack they'll launch balls up to Mitrovic and both defenders will add one foul each to their tallies.
Score prediction: Denmark 2-2 Serbia (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
England vs Slovenia
- Tuesday 25th June, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 1/3 | Draw 15/4 | Away 8/1
This is an interesting test for England. Alex Keble has highlighted in his match-ups column just how tricky this could be for the disjointed Three Lions, who need to win to secure top spot. Slovenia meanwhile know that defeat will see them exit the competition.
Gareth Southgate will likely make one or two changes from the lackluster draw with Denmark, but I want to focus on Slovenia's foul machine ADAM GNEZDA CERIN from a betting standpoint. Cerin leads the tournament for FOULS COMMITTED, hitting nine across two games (5 vs Denmark, 4 vs Serbia), which is three more than any other player after two matchdays, and we can back him at even money to register 2+ which looks a lovely price with Unibet. He's the same price for 3+ fouls elsewhere.
England are the most fouled team at the tournament on a per game basis, drawing 16 per game, which only hightens my excitement for this bet, with Jude Bellingham and Conor Gallagher - who likely starts here - exceptional for drawing fouls in central areas.
With the high stakes for Slovenia, expect them and Cerin to be extra cynical on Tuesday, so much so that I wouldn't put anyone off backing Cerin 3+ fouls at 6/4 with Betfair, or Cerin to be carded at 4/1. Believe it or not he somehow hasn't been booked yet this tournament despite making nine fouls.
Score prediction: England 2-0 Slovenia (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Slovakia vs Romania
- Wednesday 26th June, 17:00 - BBC Two
- Home 11/5 | Draw 6/5 | Away 12/5
This is one of the rare times where a draw would see both qualify, and understandably the price of this game ending all square has crashed. Having opened around 12/5 it is now available at a best price of 6/5.
Romania will finish in the top two should this game end in a draw, while Slovakia will finish third with a draw and would almost certainly advance as a best third-placed team. This potentially looks one to avoid from a betting perspective, but I have been drawn in by UNDER 0.5 CARDS, which is 14/1 with Betfair.
I'm only going to have a small play, as the referee Daniel Siebert handed out nine cards in his sole Euro 2024 game thus far, but in what could be a low-event game, chancing it being a training match where both teams aren't hard into tackles does appeal. The same bet is 7/2 with bet365.
Since the change in Euros format, we've only had one game in a similar mold to this, where a draw sees both progress. That was Ukraine vs Austria in 2020, and while the draw didn't land, the game didn't see a single card shown.
Score prediction: Slovakia 1-1 Romania (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Ukraine vs Belgium
- Wednesday 26th June, 17:00 - BBC One
- Home 4/1 | Draw 3/1 | Away 8/13
Mr Trader, could I please get a price for Romelu Lukaku to score anytime and the goal be ruled out by VAR? For those of you counting, this bet would have won in both of Belgium's group games already, with Belgium's all time top scorer being denied three times by the smallest of margins.
I jest, as readers will know that we were on Lukaku to score against Romania. On a serious note though, one of these sides won't advance. A draw would see Belgium progress, while only a win will do for Ukraine, unless the Slovakia vs Romania game isn't a draw in which case a draw in this game sees both teams advance.
The standout bet here is to back MYKHAILO MUDRYK to take 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 17/20 with William Hill. The Chelsea winger has fired three shots in both group games so far, and given the task at hand we should expect to see Ukraine playing on the front foot.
And even if the state of play didn't dictate they needed to go for the win, Belgium's defence is vulnerable enough to see Ukraine's outlet get a few chances. The Red Devils have conceded 10 and 14 shots respectively against Slovakia and Romania, so Mudyrk - Ukraine's most dangerous attacker - should get openings tto pull the trigger twice.
Score prediction: Ukraine 1-3 Belgium (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
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