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Jake Osgathorpe's Euro 2024 tips and predictions for the semi-finals
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
Wednesday
1.5pts Netherlands most cards vs England (20:00) at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt Virgil van Dijk 2+ fouls committed in Netherlands vs England (20:00) at 8/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- *All bets are in 90 minutes
- CLICK HERE to add all selections to your Sky Bet bet slip
Netherlands vs England
- Wednesday 10th July, 20:00 - ITV1
- Home 2/1 | Draw 19/10 | Away 6/4
Somehow, England have made it to a third semi-final in four tournaments. It's an incredible feat really, even if they have been hard to watch. The 'results over style' approach has certainly paid dividends so far, and we can only hope it continues as the Three Lions face their toughest test to date.
The Netherlands haven't been any more convincing, beating only Poland, Romania and Turkey, with their defensive issues perhaps an area of weakness that England can exploit.
Even, VIRGIL VAN DIJK has look flustered, and the usually calm presence can have his feathers ruffled again in this match. We can back him TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at 8/5, and that certainly appeals. The Dutch skipper leads his side in fouls per 90 with 2.4.
Not only has this bet landed in four of his five Euro outings, Van Dijk committing 2-1-3-4-2 fouls, but with England likely to stick with a similar set-up and formation as against Switzerland, Van Dijk will have to deal with Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden and Harry Kane.
Saka will cut in when given chance, Foden will look to pick up the half-spaces and Kane was naturally drifting to the left-centre back to allow space for Jude Bellingham to come inside when the Three Lions have the ball.
Saka has won 1.78 fouls per 90 at the tournament, Foden 0.79 and Kane 1.94, so VVD should be a busy man on Wednesday evening.
Another man that could be kept be busy is the referee for this game, Felix Zwayer. The German has averaged 4.9 cards per game this season, and so far at the Euros has dished 4-5-4 cards. The angle I like the look of most around cards is NETHERLANDS MOST CARDS which is a best price 11/8 with bet365.
This bet is partly due to the Dutch, but mainly due to England, and their ability to draw fouls. The Three Lions are the most fouled side at the tournament, meaning it's no surprise that their opponents have won the card count in four of five matches, the other being a draw.
The Dutch, meanwhile, have picked up more cards than their opponents in three of their five, losing this particular battle only once when playing a foul-heavy Austria team, so for me, Ronald Koeman's side should be stronger favourites to win the most cards than their price suggests.
Score prediction: England 1-1 Netherlands (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1520 (08/07/24)
Already advised
Tuesday
2pts Nacho Fernandez 65+ passes in Spain vs France (20:00) at 21/20 (Coral)
1pt Jesus Navas to be carded in Spain vs France (20:00) at 21/4 (Unibet)
Doubles
2pts Both semi-finals to go Under 2.5 goals at 6/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Both semi-finals to end in a draw at 8/1 (Betfred)
We registered yet more profit in the quarter finals, +2.75pts this time, meaning our overall total for this column stands at +12.33pts. With just three games left, we are in a great position to make this a profitable tournament.
While the quarters were kind for the best bets, it was cruel for the proposed outrights. Both Portugal and Switzerland, put up at 8/1 and 80/1 respectively, were knocked out on penalties. A bit of a sickener, especially as the former were the better side and the latter were leading with 10 minutes of normal time remaining.
Anyway, those bets have been downed, but we have two tasty ties to get stuck into. Oh, and England have somehow managed to edge their way to the final four.
Doubles
I couldn't resist a couple of doubles that standout at the prices given the Euro 2024 trends, the teams on show and trends of previous tournaments.
Since Euro 2000, the semi-finals have averaged just 2.08 goals per game, with 67% of those clashes going UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
We can back the unders double at 6/5 which really does appeal. After all, every France and England game has seen fewer than three goals in 90 minutes, with Les Bleus' games averaging just 0.8 and the Three Lions' 1.4.
Three of Spain's five have gone under, with the Netherlands the only wildcard.
With draws aplenty at the tournament so far - 19 in 48 matches (40%) - and the stakes getting ever higher, let's have a small bet on BOTH GAMES TO END IN A DRAW.
Half the semi-finals since 2000 have ended all square. Fresh from three of four quarters going to extra time and with the low goal expectancy, I think it's worth chancing we get more than 90 minutes in both matches.
England have drawn four of their five at Euro 2024, and France three of five, with both their wins coming via own goals.
Sky Bet are offering 24/1 for both matches to go to penalties, and I would not put anyone off chancing that either.
Spain vs France
- Tuesday 9th July, 20:00 - BBC One
- Home 8/5 | Draw 15/8 | Away 19/10
What a game this should be. On paper...
In practice, France have been one of the most turgid sides at Euro 2024, suffocating opposition and doing just enough to progress. Remarkably, Les Bleus are still yet to score from open play, reaching the semi-finals via two own goals, a penalty and a shootout.
The Didier Dechamps way.
If you think his side's approach to this game will be any different to the quarter-final against Portugal, think again. That match was a horrible watch until extra time, with the first 45 minutes delivering just five shots equating to 0.14 xG...
Spain could be more cavalier than their neighbours were, given their high-pressing and direct style, but France will likely sit in and frustrate, looking for one or two chances to counter, which leads nicely onto a couple of bets.
Firstly, we are going to back NACHO FERNANDEZ 65+ PASSES. It's worth mentioning that these are attempted passes, they don't have to find their target. Nacho should get the nod at right centre-back with Robin Le Normand suspended, and his pass line looks way too low.
Spain's starting left centre-back, Aymeric Laporte, has his line set at 87+ passes. France's deep-to-mid-block approach with very little pressure in their two knockout games has resulted in some large passing numbers for opposition centre-backs.
As the Portugal pass map shows, France allowed their opponents to pass the ball in their own and middle thirds, but shut things down quickly in the final third.
Against Belgium, Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen racked up 76 and 101 passes respectively, while across 120 minutes against Portugal both Ruben Dias (110) and Pepe (138) saw plenty of the ball, with both covering 80+ passes in 90 minutes.
I expect Spain to dominate the ball in this game, just as Portugal did (60% possession), and with little press from France's front line, we should see the ball at Nacho's feet an awful lot. The centre-back made 56 passes against Croatia in a game where Spain only saw 47% possession, with a similar story against Germany (31) when coming on as a second half substitute in a game the Spaniards only had 48% of the ball in.
The second bet I like the look of again revolves around a forced change for Luis de la Fuente's side, with JESUS NAVAS looking a huge price TO BE CARDED.
This is indeed the same Jesus Navas once of Manchester City. Still going strong(ish) at 38 years old.
He appears to be the back-up right-back to the suspended Dani Carvajal, so looks likely to start as he did against Albania.
Likely up against Kylian Mbappe and an occasionally overlapping Theo Hernandez, two excellent foul drawers - Mbappe is averaging 1.4 fouls won per 90 this season and Hernandez 1.6 - Navas will have his hands full.
This season in La Liga, the wily full back picked up six yellows in 2010 minutes at an average of 0.27 per 90. Given the head-to-head match-up, the style of play and stakes of the game, I was expecting a price closer to 3/1 here, yet we're getting around the 5/1 mark.
Oh, and the referee here, Slavko Vincic, has handed out four and five yellows in his two Euro matches so far, the latter being Spain's win over Italy in which he booked three Spain players, including right-back on the day Carvajal.
Score prediction: Spain 0-0 France (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1520 (08/07/24)
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